Friday, March 28, 2025

NCAA Regional Semi-Finals (cont.)

Here are Ken Pom's "Thrill Score" rankings.  As usual, the Cats are in the most exciting game of the day:

1.  (6) Tennessee v. (18) Kentucky (6:39 P.M. -- TBS)
2.  (8) Michigan St. v. Mississippi (6:09 P.M. -- CBS)
3.  (2) Houston v. Purdue (9:09 P.M. -- TBS)
4.  (4) Auburn v. (14) Michigan (8:39 P.M. -- CBS)

St. John's is the only team in the AP Top Nine that has been eliminated from the Tournament.  Arkansas beat St. John's, and last night Arkansas was up 69-56 on Number-9 Texas Tech with less than five minutes to go.  Now stop me if you've heard this one before:

1.  Arkansas tried to run clock and killed its own offense.
2.  Tech made a 10-0 run to get back into the game.
3.  With 27 seconds left, and a 72-69 lead, Arkansas had big man Jordan Aidoo on the line to put the game away.  He missed the front end of a one-and-one.
4.  Still guarding the 72-69 lead with time running out, Arkansas chose not to foul.  So Tech hit a three-pointer to tie the game with nine seconds left.
5.  Arkansas had the last shot, so D.J. Wagner put up a running prayer that missed.  Overtime.
6.  In overtime, Tech took an 85-83 lead on a late bucket.
7.  With less than ten seconds to go, and the ball for the last shot, Arkansas did not call time.
8.  Instead, Wagner tried another one-on-one effort that led to another off-balance jump shot.
9.  Wagner's shot missed and Tech advanced to the Regional Final.

As several folks have pointed out today, Arkansas really did get both the best and the worst of the Coach Cal experience in a single year.  I am still frustrated that after all these years, I've never heard a coherent explanation of why:  (1) Cal freezes the ball with a lead and five minutes to go; (2) Cal doesn't foul up three; or (3) Cal doesn't call a timeout to set up the last shot of the game.  He's one of the greatest college coaches of all time, but I think he's wrong on all those issues.

18 comments:

  1. I had some ideas for a long piece about the differences between Kentucky (where I'm from) and Tennessee (where my family's from) and how they will be reflected in tonight's game, but I'm too busy to write it up. I will simply say that all over this country, there are guys between the ages of 20 and 30 who are huge UK fans, who were kids living somewhere in the Commonwealth when the Cats won it all in 2012, and who are nervous wrecks about this game tonight. I know how they feel because I went through all this in the 1990's. I hope with all my heart that the Cats win this game tonight, but I'm happy that I don't get as upset about wins and losses as I used to. Because this one will hurt a lot for whichever team loses.

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  2. By the way, shout out to Duke Coach Jon Scheyer last night. Duke hasn't played too many close games in the last few months, in large part because the ACC was way down this year. So Arizona had a puncher's chance. And the Wildcats played extremely well -- they made 46 percent of their three-point shots and 91 percent of their free throws. In the last 10 minutes of the game, Arizona scored 33 points. But instead of trying to slow down the game or rely on his defense, Scheyer wisely bet that down the stretch, his guys could score enough points to hold off the Wildcats -- and he was write. Cooper Flagg, who is the best college basketball player I've seen since Anthony Davis, had 30 points, 6 rebounds, and 7 assists as the Devils scored an amazing 1.41 points per possession to hold off Arizona 100 to 93.

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  3. Duke will play Alabama on Saturday night. The Tide scored 1.43 points per possession in a 113-88 blowout of BYU. They went 25-51 from three-point range, and both those numbers are tournament records.

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  4. My favorite games in UK history are almost all wins over rivals in the NCAA Tournament. My least favorite games in UK history are almost all losses to rivals in the NCAA Tournament. Tonight's game will be one or the other, for all of us in two of the most manic fanbases in the country.

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  5. To me, Tennessee is the Main Rival for the University of Kentucky, and always has been. I know the folks in the Bluegrass spend more time worrying about Louisville, but that fact betrays their provincialism.

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  6. Kentucky and Tennessee are playing tonight for the 242d time, in a series that goes back to 1910. UK leads 163 to 78. Since Rick Barnes came to UT, the Cats are 12-11 against the Big Orange.

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  7. In 1970, the population of Kentucky was 3,220,771, and the population of Tennessee was 3,936,975. The current population of Kentucky is 4,588,372 (increase of 42.5 percent). The current population of Tennessee is 7,227,750 (increase of 83.6 percent).

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  8. My advice to Mitch Barnhart is to concentrate on sports that Tennessee doesn't play, like rifle and gymnastics. Because as long as he's at Kentucky, he's not beating Tennessee in anything.

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  9. On the other hand, you have to give Pope credit for getting UK to the Regionals even though he has no players who are good enough to play for UT.

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  10. If you know anything about these teams, you knew that UK was not ending Zakai Zeigler's career.

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  11. This is a very easy game to analyze. Every single player on Tennessee is better than his counterpart for Kentucky.

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  12. Kentucky fans like to think that you can win entirely with coaching and effort. But you need some really good players as well.

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  13. Also, Rick Barnes is a great coach. He has already run Cal out of town, and I wouldn't bet against him with Pope.

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  14. You can lose because your coach makes weird tactical decisions down the stretch. Or you can lose because you don't have enough talent. But either way, you've lost.

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  15. But let's be honest: for UK, the story is the same in every sport. The Wildcats would really like to win. Tennessee intends to win, and has a plan -- and the players -- to make that happen.

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  16. Winston Churchill once said: "Facts are better than dreams." Kentucky has dreams. Tennessee has facts.

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  17. Michigan State eliminates Ole Miss 73 to 70, and moves one step closer to being obliterated by Duke.

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  18. In 2023, Kentucky's per capita gross domestic product (measured in 2017 dollars) was $49,763. The comparable figure for Tennessee was $59,694.

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