Sunday, February 16, 2025

Classic SEC Standings

UK falls 82-78 at Texas.  The Cats are 17-8 overall, but they have lost their last three games (Mississippi, Arkansas, and Texas) where Lemont Butler didn't play.  They are 5-3 in the SEC with Butler, and 1-3 without him.  Jaxson Robinson has also missed the last two games.  Realistically, if those two guys are both out for the year, then UK's chances are not very good.  And that's a shame, because when healthy the Cats have been much better than I expected.  But the combination of their impossible schedule and their many injuries may be too much for them to overcome.

Meanwhile, Auburn played one of the best games of the season, beating Alabama 94 to 85 in Tuscaloosa, and making the whole game look surprisingly easy.  For the first time in my life as a fan, I really believe that Auburn could win the National Championship.

Here's the Classic SEC standings with three weeks left:

1.  Auburn:  23-2
4.  Florida:  22-3
5.  Tennessee:  21-5
6.  Alabama:  21-4
19.  Kentucky:  17-8
24.  Mississippi:  19-7
30.  Mississippi St:  18-7
41.  Vanderbilt:  17-8
43.  Georgia:  16-10
81.  Louisiana St:  13-12

There hasn't been a decent NCAA Tournament since 2022, when Kansas edged UNC 72-69 in the final.  And there hasn't been a really good NCAA Tournament since 2019, when UVA beat Purdue (in OT), Auburn (by one point), and Texas Tech (in OT) to win it all.  But I have a good feeling about this year's tournament.  It should be a cracker.  If the Tournament were played in 16 Regions -- like the State Tournament -- it would look like this (Ken Pom rankings in parentheses):

Game One:  Saint Mary's (21) v. Connecticut (35)
As usual, UConn doesn't face much of a challenge in Region 1.  Saint Mary's benefits from a down year by U.C.L.A. in Region 16.

Game Two:  Maryland (14) v. Duke (2)
This would be very exciting around here, as the Terps and Blue Devils haven't met since February 15, 2014.

Game Three:  Tennessee (5) v. Missouri (15)
Tennessee has dominated Region Eight in recent years, although UK would have a fighting chance, given that they've beaten the Vols twice already.  Furthermore, since this is an odd year, Region Eight would be played in Freedom Hall.  Mizzou have to beat Kansas again to win Region Twelve.

Game Four:  Auburn (1) v. Mississippi (24)
Ole Miss and Mississippi State would have a battle down in Region Seven, as the Bulldogs have beaten the Rebels twice this year.  Region Six (featuring teams from Alabama, Florida, and Georgia) would be an epic, with Auburn, Alabama, and Florida all ranked in the top six in the country.  I like to think that Region Six would be played at the old Birmingham-Jefferson Convention Complex, where they used to play the SEC Tournament.

Game Five:  Houston (3) v. Arizona (12)
Region 13 would be another epic, with Houston, Texas Tech, and Texas A & M all ranked in the top 13.  I like to think it would be at UT-Austin.

Game Six:  Gonzaga (11) v. Purdue (10)
This would be a good game between two teams that have both lost in the finals during the 2020's.

Game Seven:  Pittsburgh (51) v. Iowa St. (8)
An unusually weak year from Region Three, which usually gives us a strong Villanova team.  Region Ten would be played at the Rosemont Horizon, and would feature Iowa St., Wisconsin, and Illinois, all of whom are ranked in the top 19.  That would be a great tournament.

Game Eight:  St. John's (18) v. Ohio St. (28)
Region Two is usually one of the weakest regions -- unless Syracuse or St. John's have a good team.  This year, the Red Storm would draw an unusually weak Region Nine champion, as the Ohio teams are not up to their usual level.

This would give us the following quarter-finals (all games at the Market Square Arena in Indianapolis):

Connecticut v. Duke
Tennessee v. Auburn
Houston v. Purdue
Iowa St. v. St. John's

You couldn't ask for much better matchups than that, which really shows what a deep field we have this year.

14 comments:

  1. Today's Daytona 500 was supposed to start at 12:30 PM Central Time. It is now 8:24 P.M. Central Time and they are having all those wrecks that they always have in the last 25 laps. I can't think of any other sporting event in my lifetime that has degenerated so much since the 1970's. It's just unwatchable. The race itself never finishes in daylight any more, because the weather is always horrible, and then the ending doesn't make any sense, because it comes down to a two-lap sprint between whoever is left after they've had all the wrecks.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I don't see how you can possibly even try to win this race. The best you can do is to hope to avoid all the wrecks and steal it at the end.

    ReplyDelete
  3. And how is anyone supposed to watch it? You don't know when it will start, you don't know when it will end, and you don't know how anyone is doing until all the wrecks are over and they're ready to run the overtime. Your guy could be half a lap ahead of the field with 10 laps to go and it's meaningless, because all the wrecks will just bring him back to the pack -- and potentially knock him out of the race altogether.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Fox reports that six of the last eight Daytona 500's have ended in OT. I don't remember the two that didn't.

    ReplyDelete
  5. William Byron wins the Daytona 500 after yet another crash wipes out all the contenders on the backstretch in the last lap of overtime. Before the wreck, Byron was on his way to a sixth-place finish. Byron becomes the first person to win back-to-back Daytona 500's since Denny Hamlin did it in 2019 and 2020. Hamlin was on track to win this year, but he was wrecked on the last lap.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Anyway, we should get a good NCAA Tournament this year.

    ReplyDelete
  7. I want to give Mark Pope credit, whatever happens. I thought UK would be about as good as Arkansas has been, and I thought Arkansas would be about as good as UK has been. Nevertheless, I still don't think UK is in a position to compete with schools like Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, and Texas A & M any time soon.

    ReplyDelete
  8. Here are the top eight teams in Region Eight, according to Ken Pom:

    5. Tennessee: 21-5
    19. Kentucky: 17-8
    25. Louisville: 20-6
    41. Vanderbilt: 17-8
    47. Memphis: 21-5
    86. Lipscomb: 19-8
    109. Chattanooga: 19-8
    115. Mid. Tenn. St: 17-8

    ReplyDelete
  9. Of course, that's not the same as the district winners and runners up, which would look like this:

    29th District: (25) Louisville, (122) W. Kentucky
    30th District: (19) Kentucky, (183) E. Kentucky
    31st District: (41) Vanderbilt, (47) Memphis
    32d District: (5) Tennessee, (109) Chattanooga

    ReplyDelete
  10. So the Eighth Region (at Freedom Hall) would look like this:

    Louisville v. Memphis St.
    Tennessee v. E. Kentucky
    Vanderbilt v. W. Kentucky
    Kentucky v. Chattanooga

    ReplyDelete
  11. By the way, Louisville is zooming up the rankings now, and that's great news for UK fans. The only thing that will really get the attention of the UK Athletic Department is if U of L moves past UK in the rankings. The folks in Lexington don't mind losing to UT or Auburn, but they really hate falling behind U of L.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Since 2020, here are U of L's final rankings on Ken Pom:

    2021: 59
    2022: 127
    2023: 290
    2024: 185

    The Cardinals haven't won a game in the NCAA Tournament since 2017. That sort of performance puts no pressure on UK.

    ReplyDelete
  13. It would probably also help if IU got really good. They haven't been to the Sweet 16 since 2013, and haven't finished the season in Ken Pom's top 20 since 2016. They will have a new coach next year, so that might also put pressure on Mitch Barnhart.

    ReplyDelete
  14. Huge win for the Cats over Vandy. UK now at 17 on Ken Pom. 5th in offensive efficiency. 69th in defensive efficiency. 240th in luck.

    Louisville is number 25. 103d in luck.
    Arkansas is number 37. 305th in luck. At this point, it is clear that Cal's problems with close games are going to leave a permanent mark on his record.

    ReplyDelete