Final Thoughts on the Wildcats

In 1994, Denny Crum and the Louisville Cardinals finished with a record of 28-6 overall and 10-2 in the Metro Conference.  The finished the year at Number 10 in the AP Poll.  They were a number 3 seed in the NCAA's.  They beat Boise State 67 to 58, and then beat Minnesota 60-55, before losing 82-70 to Arizona in the Sweet 16.  There was no shame here -- Arizona was really good, and they went to the Final Four.  At the time, you had to feel like Louisville's program was still in a very strong position.  After all, they had Denny Crum, and he was one of the greatest coaches of all time.  In 1994, Crum was only 57 years old, and you had to think he'd be good for another 10 years.

That was the last season in which Crum ever won a regular season conference title.

Oh, he still had moments from time to time.  He got back to the Sweet 16 in 1996, and got all the way to the Elite Eight in 1997, with a Number 6 seed that upset New Mexico along the way.  Of course, in the Elite Eight he got blasted by North Carolina by 23, because his teams could no longer compete at that level.  But getting to the Elite Eight was still impressive.

He coached four more years at U of L after the 1997 season.  Here's what they looked like:

1998:  12-20 (5-11 in the American Conference):  missed the tournament

1999:  19-11 (11-5):  lost in the first round

2000:  19-12 (10-6):  lost in the first round

2001:  12-19 (8-8):  missed the tournament

And that was it.  U of L got Rick Pitino, and by 2005 they were back in the Final Four.  The problem wasn't U of L -- the problem was that the game had passed Crum by.  He couldn't adjust to the shot clock and the three-point line, and his recruiting couldn't keep pace with what guys like Pitino and Coach K could do.

That's where Calipari is now.  Trying to argue that Calipari was never a good coach, or that he can't coach any more, is silly.  He's still capable of outsmarting his fellow coaches (as we saw this year at Auburn and at Tennessee), and it wouldn't surprise me if over the next five years, he has one more run to the Elite Eight in him.  But the game has passed him by.  At this stage in his career, his real interest is in taking guys like Justin Edwards and Rob Dillingham and helping them to pursue their dreams.  Ten years ago, you could do that and also go deep into the NCAA Tournament.  But that's no longer possible.  The last serious one-and-done team was Duke's team with Zion Williamson in 2019.  They lost to Michigan State in the Elite Eight, and the title game was between the bruisers from Virginia and Texas Tech.  That 2019 season -- one of the best in history -- was also one of the most important, because it ended the one and done era once and for all.  Ever since 2019, most coaches have understand that physical 22-year-olds will beat even the most talented 18-year-olds.

Take Rick Barnes at Tennessee.  He had perhaps the greatest one-and-done of all -- Kevin Durant, who played for him at Texas.  In the second round of the NCAA Tournament in 2007, Durant was amazing -- but Texas lost 87 to 68 to Southern California.  Barnes doesn't recruit guys like that anymore.  He recruits tough guys who will stay for four years.  And last night, his guys beat Saint Peter's (remember them?) 83 to 49.  Barnes has his own problems, and you can never tell how UT will do, but that model is clearly better than what Calipari is doing.  And when you take that model and you put it in the hands of someone who can really coach -- like Dan Hurley -- UK has no hope to compete.

So where do we go from here?  I don't think Calipari will change -- this is a moral issue for him.  When I moved to DC in the early 1990's, John Thompson was still coaching at Georgetown.  But at that stage of his life, with his legendary status beyond any question, he was more interested in helping young men than in winning basketball games.  His last good team was in 1996, when Allen Iverson took the Hoyas to the Elite Eight.  But while Thompson had one great player, his opponent in the Elite Eight -- UMass -- had a team of tough, disciplined, experienced players -- and they ran Georgetown out of the gym.  Back then, Thompson was trying to make a point, and the UMass coach -- John Calipari -- was trying to win.  Now the shoe's on the other foot, and I expect Cal to be just as stubborn as Thompson was.

In short, Kentucky is stuck.  It's unlikely that the program will simply collapse and miss the tournament -- Cal is too good for that.  On the other hand, I don't see any way back to the Final Four if Cal continues to play freshman-dominated lineups, and I don't see Cal taking advice from Mitch Barnhart (or anyone) on how to put his team together.

My guess is that there will be some meetings and discussions in Lexington, but not much will change between now and November.  In effect, Cal and the UK Athletic Department are going to call the bluff of all the UK fans calling for change -- they're going to bet that when November rolls around, everyone will show up as if nothing was different.  And that's when things are going to get really ugly.  Because this fan base is not bluffing.  They're too smart and too experienced to believe in this story again.  Unless the Cats start off the season 20-0, you aren't going to see folks getting on that bandwagon next year.  And let's be honest, we already know what will happen.  They'll lose to Duke in that season-opening event they play every year.  They'll lose to next year's version of Evansville or UNC-Wilmington.  And they'll bounce around between 25 and 15 on Ken Pom.  That's the best case scenario.  And when they lose at Alabama, and Florida, and Georgia (or maybe Vandy) -- you won't be able to convince people that the team is built for March.  We've seen it too many times.  And somewhere out there is another Saint Peter's, or Oakland, who will be thrilled to learn that it has drawn Kentucky in next year's tournament.

It's sad that it has to be this way.  We all can wish that Cal had retired after the COVID year.  But he believes that he has a moral responsibility to help these young men, and he will keep trying to do things his way for as long as he can.  I saw it happen with Crum at Louisville, and Thompson at Georgetown, and Gary Williams at Maryland, and Nolan Richardson at Arkansas.  All those teams had fans who loved their programs as much as we love ours.  And now it's come for Kentucky, and there's no good way out.