MLB Update

According to FanGraphs, here's where things stand.  Remember that in each league, six teams make the playoffs.  The two divisional champs with the best records will get byes.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

NL East:

1.  Mets have a 63.4 percent chance to win the division, and a 99.7 percent chance to make the playoffs

2.  Braves have a 36.2 percent chance to win the division, and a 98.6 percent chance to make the playoffs

3.  Phillies have a 45.2 percent chance to be a Wild Card.

4.  Marlins will likely go 77-85.

5.  Nats will likely go 60-102.  (This seems optimistic to me.)

NL Central:

1.  Brewers have a 74.9 percent chance to win the division, and an 85.3 percent chance to make the playoffs.

2.  Cardinals have a 25.0 percent chance to win the division, and a 49.4 percent chance to make the playoffs.

3.  Cubs will likely go 71-91.

4.  Reds will likely go 68-94.

5.  Pirates will likely go 67-95.

NL West:

1.  Dodgers have a 98.3 percent chance to win the division, and a 100 percent chance to make the playoffs.

2.  Padres have an 83.0 percent chance to be a Wild Card.

3.  Giants have a 33.9 percent chance to be a Wild Card.

4.  D-Backs will likely go 71-91.

5.  Rockies will likely go 70-92.

So basically, the Dodgers, Mets, and Brewers will probably be the division winners.  The Braves and Padres will probably be Wild Cards.  The Phillies, Cardinals, and Giants are battling for the last slot.  The Dodgers have a 97.4 percent chance of winning one of the byes.  The other bye will almost certainly go to whomever wins the NL East.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

AL East:

1.  Yankees have a 97.4 percent chance to win the division, and a 100 percent chance to make the playoffs.

2.  Blue Jays have a 93.3 percent chance to be a Wild Card.

3.  Devil Rays have a 61.7 percent chance to be a Wild Card.

4.  Red Sox have a 30.7 percent chance to be a Wild Card.

5.  Orioles will likely go 76-86.

AL Central:

1.  Twins have a 44.2 percent chance to win the division, and a 58.5 percent chance to make the playoffs.

2.  White Sox have a 38.5 percent chance to win the division, and a 54.3 percent chance to make the playoffs.

3.  Cleveland has a 17.2 percent chance to win the division, and a 27.8 percent chance to make the playoffs.

4.  Royals will likely go 70-92.

5.  Tigers will likely to 68-94.

AL West:

1.  Astros have a 99.9 percent chance to win the division, and a 100 percent chance to make the playoffs.

2.  Mariners have a 67.5 percent chance to be a Wild Card.

3.  Angels will likely go 74-88.

4.  Rangers will likely go 73-89.

5.  Athletics will likely go 62-100.

So basically, the Yankees (97.3 percent chance) and Astros (97.3 percent chance) will get the two byes.  The Blue Jays will get one of the Wild Cards, and the other three slots will go to some combination of the Devil Rays, Mariners, Twins, White Sox, and Cleveland.

Anyway, at this point it seems obvious that the four best teams in baseball -- by a fairly wide margin -- are the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Astros.  And we will hope that those four make it to the League Championship Series.  But of course the teams are all going to change a lot between now and August 2, which is the trading deadline.  The team that wins the World Series isn't the best team now -- it's the best team in October.  In 2019, for example, the Nationals got hot and beat the Dodgers, the Cardinals, and the Astros to win it all.  Last year, the Braves got hot and beat the Brewers, the Dodgers, and the Astros to win it all.  So to understand what's likely to happen, you really have to pay attention and see who's red-hot in September.  But of course, once September gets here we'll all be watching football.  So I'm just going to tune in once there are only eight teams left, and we'll see how it goes from there.