The UK men's basketball team has been on a roll lately, and is now up to Number 8 on Ken Pomeroy's rankings. But the voters on the Associated Press are not so convinced. They have the Cats in a tie with Providence for number 16. I think part of the AP's thinking is that UK is probably going to lose tonight in Baton Rouge. And Ken Pom agrees: he has LSU (his number-13 team) beating UK 71-69, although he does give the Big Blue a 43 percent chance of victory.
We'll see what happens tonight. Historically, UK has a record of 20-4 when it holds the number-16 ranking. It's best experience in that took place in March 2016, when the 16th-ranked Wildcats swept to the SEC Tournament Title, beating Alabama (85-59), Georgia (93-80) and Texas A & M (82-77 in overtime).
Wheeler lasted less than four minutes before LSU knocked him out with a screen. He had to be helped to the locker room. Welcome to Baton Rouge. LSU leads 8-3 with 15:38 left in the first half.
ReplyDeleteUK looks terrible so far. LSU is just pushing them all over the floor, and with Wheeler out UK's offense could be in big trouble.
ReplyDeleteWithout Wheeler, and up against the Number-1 defense in the country, UK can't really run any sort of offense. So far the Cats are 2-8 from 2-point range, 1-4 from 3-point range, 2-2 from the line with 3 turnovers. LSU leads 15-9 with 11:50 left.
ReplyDeleteThey tried Hopkins, and he immediately made two turnovers. So I don't know how much more we'll see of him.
ReplyDeleteThey're dedicating the court in Baton Rouge to Dale Brown, and this certainly looks like a lot of games I watched when he coached LSU.
ReplyDeleteWith 11:23 left in the first half, Tshiebwe picks up his second foul. So he and Wheeler are both gone. LSU leads 16-11.
ReplyDeleteWith Tshiebwe on the bench, UK scores seven straight points to get back in the game. LSU now leads 21-20 with 7:22 left in the half. Washington has 5 points. Tshiebwe has 6.
ReplyDeleteThis game is a real struggle. It's one of those games where the Cats are 1-7 from three-point range, and 5-11 from the line, so they're struggling to score. But they're playing hard, they're getting a great effort from Toppin, and LSU's offense is somewhat limited. So we're tied 26-all with 3:12 left.
ReplyDeleteI hate this type of basketball. It's amazing to me that schools like UVA play this way on purpose all the time.
ReplyDeleteThe Cats faded down the stretch, like they usually do in close games these days, and LSU has a 35-30 halftime lead. All of UK's starts have been a disappointment:
ReplyDeleteTshiebwe: 6 points and 2 rebounds, spent most of the first half on the bench in foul trouble.
Brooks: 2 points and 2 rebounds
Washington: 5 points and 4 rebounds on 2-7 shooting.
Wheeler: 0 points and 1 assist, probably out for the game.
Grady: 1 point. 0-6 from three-point range. 0-7 from the field.
As a team, the Cats went 1-11 from three-point range, and were out-rebounded 25-21.
So why aren't the Cats getting blown out? First, LSU doesn't really have an offense -- they basically dribble a while, then shoot a three and it either goes in or they go for the rebound. They had 9 turnovers in the first half, and UK turned several of those into baskets.
Second, Jacob Toppin was amazing. He came off the bench to score 13 points on 6-6 shooting, and his basket at the buzzer prevented the Cats from being down 7.
Third, UK has played hard, despite losing their two best players for most of the first half.
Basically, we're looking at a rerun of the Notre Dame game, with UK on the road in a hostile environment. They can't run their normal offense without Wheeler, and they can't make any three-point shots. They're also missing lots of free throws (they were 5-11 from the line). I would guess that like at Notre Dame, they'll hang around for most of the game, but LSU will make all the plays down the stretch.
ReplyDeleteLSU will go something like 13-5 in the SEC, and lose in the first round of the NCAA Tournament to a mid-major that knows how to shoot three's.
ReplyDeleteEverybody's talking about how surprising it is for UK to hang in there without Wheeler and Tshiebwe. But anyone who thought Wheeler and Tshiebwe were playing a lot in Baton Rouge hasn't watched much SEC basketball.
ReplyDeleteIn 1979, UK missed the NCAA Tournament because Dwight Anderson broke his wrist in the SEC semi-finals after he was undercut by an LSU player. Anderson couldn't play in the final, and UK lost to Tennessee in overtime.
ReplyDeleteUK opens the first half with a three-pointer from Mintz, a three-pointer from Grady, and another three-pointer from Mintz. The Cats lead 39-35 with 17:06 left, and LSU calls time.
ReplyDeleteGrady hits two more three-point shots, and UK leads 47-39 with 14:26 left. This game is so much easier when you can shoot.
ReplyDeleteGrady hit another three to put UK up 50-41. But LSU is coming back. The Cats lead 50-46 with 11:35 left. In the last two years, UK has been consistently terrible down the stretch in close games. Can they do better tonight?
ReplyDeleteWashington was practically murdered on a run-out, so he now appears to be out for the rest of the game. Without Wheeler or Washington, UK has lost much of its offense, and the Cats haven't scored in a long time. UK is hanging on through defense, but the score is 50-48 with 7:46 left and it's really hard to see where the points come from down the stretch. Cats now 7-15 from the line.
ReplyDeleteTshiebwe misses the front end of a 1-and-1. LSU hits a three. Tshiebwe makes a dunk. LSU hits another three. Tigers up 54-52 with 6:15 left. Cats call time.
ReplyDeleteUK is dead on its feat. LSU now on a 15-2 run, and the Tigers lead 56-52 with just under 4 minutes left. Washington came back, but he can barely move. Without Wheeler or a healthy Washington, the Cats just can't score. Cats are also 7-16 from the line, which is murderous in this type of game.
ReplyDeleteIt's a very disappointing performance. Even without Wheeler, the Cats were up 50-41 with about 12 minutes to go, and then simply stopped scoring. That just shouldn't happen.
ReplyDeleteThe Cats were also totally intimidated down the stretch. LSU is overplaying everyone and slapping at the ball, and UK just does nothing in response. Meanwhile, LSU just keeps making one three after another. Tigers lead 59-52, and this game is over.
ReplyDeleteI don't know how Calipari fixes this -- over and over, the Cats just collapse down the stretch. LSU leads 61-52, and is now on a 20-2 run. Wheeler or no Wheeler, LSU -- which basically has no offense beyond shooting three's and going for rebounds -- shouldn't outscore UK 20-2.
ReplyDeleteNow just a question of how far UK will fall on Ken Pom. The Cats were supposed to lose by two; they are clearly going to lose by more than that.
ReplyDeleteUK got to within 61-60 with 23 seconds left, stole the ball, turned it over, gave up a dunk. Tried to inbounds, turned it over, gave up another basket. Cats lose 65-60. Just horrible play down the stretch.
ReplyDeleteHere's the thing: in basketball, you have to win close games. No matter how many blowouts you get, you have to win close games. Because once you get to the tournament, one loss is the end of your season.
ReplyDeleteNow in 2019 and 2020, UK was good at close games. The 2019 team was 98th in luck, and the 2020 team was 138 in luck. Together, those teams went 30-6 in the SEC, and won a lot of close games. Since then, UK has lost almost every close game, and usually looks terrible down the stretch. They have got to fix this.
ReplyDeleteThey were supposed to lose by 2 and they lost by 5, so they will only fall a few points on Ken Pom. But they already have three losses, and no matter what Ken Pom thinks, they will not get a decent seed if they don't start winning some of these games.
ReplyDeleteOf course, if Wheeler and Washington don't come back to full strength, everything is moot anyway.
ReplyDeleteCats are at number 9 on Ken Pom, so they didn't fall very much. That makes sense, given that there was only a one-possession difference between his predicted margin and the final score. But the Cats are now down to 334 on "Luck." They've only played three games that were in doubt with five minutes left, and they've lost all three. They are also 1-3 in games that Ken Pom classifies as "A" games. And we still don't know how bad things are for Wheeler.
ReplyDeleteVandy goes to Fayetteville and beats Arkansas 75-74. The Dores are 1-0 in the SEC for the first time since 2017.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, it's still all to play for if you're the Cats. Consider these facts:
ReplyDelete1. Ken Pom has data for every UK team from 2002 to 2022.
2. For each year, you can subtract UK's defensive efficiency rating from its offensive efficiency rating to get a rough idea of how strong that team was.
3. Between 2002 and 2019, there were 10 UK teams where the difference between offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency was greater than 25.2. Every one of those teams reached the elite eight, and five reached the final four.
4. Over the same period, there were 14 UK teams where the difference was 25.2 or less. Only two of these teams reached the elite eight, and only one reached the final four.
5. As of now, the difference for the 2022 team is 24.6 -- very close to the border of being a very good team.
Sorry, those figures cover 1997 through 2022.
ReplyDeleteNow you should know that there were four teams -- 1997, 1998, 2012, and 2015 -- that had an efficiency difference greater than 29.1. All four of those teams reached the final four, and two won the national championship. It is extremely unlikely that this year's team could reach that level.
ReplyDeleteOn the other hand, if this year's team continues to improve, it could reach Ken Pom's top 5 (the Cats are currently in 9th). That would certainly put them in the running for the Final Four.
ReplyDeleteThe 2020 team finished with a difference of 17.6. The 2021 team finished with a difference of 14.9. So on paper, this year's team is significantly better than either of those teams. But that 2020 team had a real knack of pulling out close games, and this year's team has been terrible in those situations so far.
ReplyDeleteCal reports that Wheeler has a neck injury and is day-to-day. Since 2016, UK has had three really promising runs. In 2017, the Cats were rolling until De'Aaron Fox was injured against South Carolina, and they were stuck with a 2 seed as a result of the games they lost while he was banged up. In 2019, the Cats were rolling until Reid Travis was injured against Missouri, and they were never that sharp again. Now Wheeler has been injured against LSU. It's really bad luck -- but it's also the case that basketball in the SEC is ludicrously violent.
ReplyDeleteWheeler was still out for the Georgia game. Cats rolled 92-77 at home, thanks to 29 points and 15 rebounds from Tshiebwe, and 17(!) assists from TyTy Washington, who was filling in at point guard. All Washington did was break John Wall's record for most assists in a UK game. Oh, and he also scored 17 points.
ReplyDeleteCats are now 12-3 overall, and 2-1 in the SEC. They are number 10 on Ken Pom.
ReplyDeleteHere are Ken Pom's MVP's for each UK game so far:
ReplyDeleteDuke: Paolo Banchero, Duke
Robert Morris: Oscar Tshiebwe (14 points, 20 rebounds)
Mount St. Mary's: Oscar Tshiebwe (24 points, 16 rebounds)
Ohio: TyTy Washington (20 points, 12 rebounds, 5 assists)
Albany: TyTy Washington (20 points, 6 rebounds)
N. Florida: Sahvir Wheeler (12 points, 14 assists)
Cent. Michigan: Oscar Tshiebwe (20 points, 16 rebounds)
Southern U.: Oscar Tshiebwe (23 points, 11 rebounds)
Notre Dame: Oscar Tshiebwe (25 points, 7 rebounds)
N. Carolina: Sahvir Wheeler (26 points, 8 assists)
W. Kentucky: Kellen Grady (23 points on 6-9 3-point shooting)
Missouri: Keion Brooks (17 points, 9 rebounds)
High Point: Kellan Grady (23 points on 7-10 3-point shooting)
LSU: Jacob Toppin (14 points, 8 rebounds)
Georgia: Oscar Tshiebwe (29 points, 17 rebounds)
Tshiebwe is number 2 in the country in Ken Pom's Player of the Year rankings. Since 2011, the only UK players to finish in the top 10 are Terrence Jones (number 10 in 2011), Anthony Davis (number 4 in 2012), and Karl-Anthony Towns (number 3 in 2015).
ReplyDelete