Hey, how about that exciting American League pennant race? The Royals have been on top almost the whole year, but now their lead over the hard-charging Blue Jays is down to only two games. Can Kansas City hold on for the title?
Oh, wait. We don't have pennant races in baseball any more, because the people who run baseball know more about marketing that the folks in Europe who are managing the most popular sports leagues in the world. So every soccer league in Europe has a pennant race, but we know better over here. Bud Selig promised us that by letting more and more teams into the playoffs, more fans would have an interest in September baseball.
Well, here we are in mid-September, which used to be a time of high drama for baseball fans -- and there are almost no interesting games to watch. The Royals, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Dodgers, and Mets have pretty much locked up their respective divisions, and the Yankees, Cubs, and Pirates have pretty much locked up the Wild Card spots. The only question left is whether the Rangers or Astros will win the AL West -- but even here, there's not too much drama, because the other team is pretty much assured of a wild card spot. Exciting!
The one thing we should comment on here is the magical power of Yeonis Cespedes. Last year, for most of the season, the A's and the Nats were the two best teams in baseball. At the close of play on July 30, 2014, the A's had a record of 66-41, which was the best record in the American League. The next day, they traded Cespedes for Jon Lester, who was supposed to be the ace pitcher that would get them through the playoffs. Instead, they went 22-33 the rest of the way, and just barely got a Wild Card. In the Wild Card game, they staked Lester to a 7-3 lead after 5 1/2 innings, and then he was driven from the game after giving up three runs in the 8th. The Royals ended up winning 9-8 in 12 innings, and went all the way to the World Series. This year, the Royals have the best record in the AL, and the A's have the worst. So long, thanks for playing.
But Cespedes wasn't done. On July 30, 2015, the Washington Nationals had a record of 54-46, and led the NL East by three games over the New York Mets, who had a record of 52-50. The next day, the Mets traded for Cespedes. Since he arrived in New York, the Mets have gone 31-13, a winning percentage of 70.4 percent. Meanwhile, the Nats have gone 21-25 -- and 0-6 in games against the Mets. A few weeks ago, the Nats were four games behind the Mets, and were hosting a three-game set against New York. Here's what happened:
1. On Monday, September 7, Cespedes hit a home run and two doubles to lead the Mets to a come-from-behind 8-5 victory.
2. On Tuesday, September 8, the Nats led 7-1 after six innings. But in the seventh inning, Cespedes hit a three-run double that was critical to an 8-7 Mets win.
3. On Wednesday, September 9, the Nats and Mets were tied 2-all in the top of the 8th. Cespedes hit a two-run homer to put the Mets on top, and lead them to a 5-3 victory. So long, thanks for playing.
And now the Nats, who were heavily favored to win their division -- and even the pennant -- at the beginning of the season, may be looking to break up their whole team. In less than two years, Cespedes has single-handedly destroyed the A's and the Nats.
As always, the percentages below represent everyone's chances of making the divisional playoffs according to FanGraphs. Take them for what their worth -- a few months ago, the Nats had a 90-something percent chance. But that was B.C. (Before Cespedes). Teams with less than a 10 percent chance are in italics:
NATIONAL LEAGUE
1. St. Louis (97.4 %): 92-54 ---
2. Pittsburgh (51.3 %): 87-59 5
3. Chicago (51.2 %): 85-61 7
4. Los Angeles (99.7 %): 84-61 7 1/2
5. New York (99.2 %): 83-63 9
6. San Francisco (0.3 %): 77-69 15
7. Washington (0.8 %): 75-71 17
8. Arizona (0.0 %): 69-77 23
9. San Diego (0.0 %): 69-78 23 1/2
10. Miami (0.0 %): 64-83 28 1/2
11. Milwaukee (0.0 %): 62-84 30
12. Cincinnati (0.0 %): 61-84 30 1/2
13. Colorado (0.0 %): 61-85 31
14. Atlanta (0.0 %): 57-90 35 1/2
15. Philadelphia (0.0 %): 56-91 36 1/2
AMERICAN LEAGUE
1. Kansas City (100.0 %): 86-60 ---
2. Toronto (94.3 %): 84-62 2
3. New York (56.9 %): 80-65 5 1/2
4. Texas (80.0 %): 79-67 7
5. Houston (49.7 %): 77-70 9 1/2
6. Minnesota (5.2 %): 75-71 11
7. Los Angeles (11.1 %): 74-72 12
8. Cleveland (2.3 %): 72-73 13 1/2
9. Baltimore (0.3 %): 72-74 14
10. Seattle (0.2 %): 71-76 15 1/2
11. Tampa Bay (0.0 %): 70-76 16
T12. Chicago (0.0 %): 69-76 16 1/2
T12. Boston (0.0 %): 69-76 16 1/2
14. Detroit (0.0 %): 67-78 18 1/2
15. Oakland (0.0 %): 63-84 23 1/2
No comments:
Post a Comment