It's kind of funny how this season has worked out. At the beginning of the season there was strong consensus that the SEC was going to be down and that the Pac 12 and Big 12 were the two strongest conferences. At some point during the season the SEC West rose to the top of the heap and everyone thought they were quite simply the best. Well they haven't looked that way in the bowl games and so one has to wonder just how good the SEC is. To get ready for the playoffs I entered all of the bowl scores up to this point into the TUCFC Power Rating system and something very interesting emerged. The team that has played the toughest schedule based on their WP rating is none other than Florida State. They now sit at the top of the TUCFC Power Ratings and so they are my favorite to win. So far the TUCFC Power Rating system is 18-9 in bowl game predictions this year. That is simply taking the higher ranked team according to the system.
Look for Alabama and Florida State to win their games and meet in the championship game.
The ESPN color commentator working the Rose Bowl just noted that Oregon's strategy against Florida State is to make the Seminoles settle for field goals instead of touchdowns. I wonder how that piece of inside information might factor into your analysis ...?
ReplyDeleteOregon, 8-3, after one quarter, and Florida State will have a fourth-and-goal coming from the 1 coming on the first play of the second ...
ReplyDeleteThere you go. Florida State's big star, Jamies Winston, attempted to run for the touchdown, and it was initially ruled a touchdown. But, upon review, the ruling on the field was changed, as it was determined that Oregon had successfully executed its strategy of stopping Florida State from scoring touchdowns. The score remains 8-3, in favor of Oregon, which has subsequently advanced the ball to midfield after taking over at the 1.
ReplyDelete5:18 to go in the second quarter, and now it's 11-6, Oregon. Again, Florida State settles for a field goal, as opposed to scoring a touchdown, per Oregon's reported defensive strategy of having the Seminoles score fewer points.
ReplyDeleteStrategy update ... Oregon has now moved ahead, 18-6, late in the first half, but ESPN just reported that Florida State may well attempt to score points again before halftime.
ReplyDeleteAnd there you go. Florida State scores a touchdown, and now it's 18-13 with less than a minute to go.
ReplyDeleteSee? Oregon should've never gotten away from its strategy of keeping Florida State from scoring touchdowns.
Huge strategic mistake by Florida State at the end of the half. After intercepting Oregon in the final 30 seconds, Florida State tries a field goal, and the attempt bounces off the goalpost. It's a close game, but Oregon's plan continues to fall into place.
ReplyDeleteHey, cool! ESPN is showing the Oregon marching band's halftime show. Good for ESPN! In honor of this programming decision, I'm going to quit being a snarky jerk about the defensive-strategy comment.
ReplyDeleteThree minutes to go in the third, and now Florida State's down, 39-20. Doesn't appear to be the Seminoles' day.
ReplyDelete59-20, 1:18 to go. Wow. My brother-in-law went to Ole Miss with Eli Manning, and he correctly predicted that Florida State would be blown out.
ReplyDeleteMy brother-in-law (who went to Ole Miss with Eli Manning) also predicted that Alabama would beat Ohio State--and then beat Oregon. But we'll see. I watched Ohio State play up at Minnesota, and that game looked so great with snow spitting around.
ReplyDelete7-6, Alabama, with 5:15 to go in the first quarter after an Ohio State field goal ...
ReplyDelete21-13, Alabama, with less than a minute to go in the first half ... Ohio State is driving in Alabama territory ... that snow looked great in the Minnesota game ...
ReplyDelete19 seconds to go, and the Buckeyes' big quarterback has run Ohio State down to the Alabama 13 ...
ReplyDeleteOH, MY!
ReplyDeleteOhio State pitches back to a wide receiver on an end around, who stops behind the line of scrimmage and throws to a leaping, well-covered teammate in the corner of the end zone to pull the Buckeyes within 21-19 with 12 seconds to go!
ReplyDeleteKick good, and it's 21-20. Great game!
ReplyDeleteI think the ESPN color commentator this game is Gary Danielson, who my dad thought was going to be a big star for the Lions in the '80s.
ReplyDeleteAfter a horrible uniform matchup in the first semifinal, this Sugar Bowl pairs a couple of great-looking uniforms. I just love the little footballs on Ohio State's helmets, and I think they're going to come back and beat Alabama in the second half.
ReplyDeleteI liked the uniform combination Oregon came up with for the Rose Bowl -- I particularly liked the little duck logos on their sleeves.
DeleteI hold no grudges toward Nick Saban. I imagine he was telling the truth the whole time he was with the Dolphins.
ReplyDeleteOf course, I believed President Clinton all the way to the end, too.
Congratulations again, ESPN, on its decision to show the marching band at the half of a bowl game.
ReplyDeleteOK, 6:19 to go, and Ohio State has now surged ahead, 27-21. Alabama has second-and-9 coming from its 2 ...
ReplyDeleteA couple of giant runs take the Crimson Tide out to the 35 or so ...
ReplyDeleteBut, on a third-and-7 from the 37, Alabama throws to an Ohio State linebacker, who returns it for a score, and now it's 34-21 late in the third quarter of the 2014 Sugar Bowl!
ReplyDeleteNow there's 1:01 to play in the third, and Alabama has scurried right back for a touchdown of its own on a quarterback sneak. It's 34-28! Great, great game!
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, back in the 2014 Sugar Bowl, Alabama's punter is on with about 12 minutes to play, and the Ohio State holding on, 34-28. The Crimson Tide's punter has averaged more than 60 yards on five punts in this game, and this ball is fielded for no return inside the Buckeye 10.
ReplyDeleteOhio State throws deep out of its end zone on third down, and Alabama's defensive back interferes in about three different ways. But none of those penalties are called, and the Buckeyes will have to punt.
ReplyDeleteAnd now Ohio State is called for delay of game and then illegal procedure. Finally, the Buckeyes get off a punt that ricochets sharply off the field and back toward their own end zone. Alabama, trailing 34-28 with 9:53 to go, takes over at the Ohio State 23 ...
But on a pass to the end zone, Buckeye Vonn Bell intercepts at the goal line!
ReplyDeleteOhio State can't get much going, and another punting adventure from the end zone awaits ...
ReplyDeleteExcellent kick into Alabama territory--AND MAYBE ROUGHING!
ReplyDeleteBut no.
ReplyDeleteWell, yes and no. Yes, it was roughing, but, because it was ruled only the lesser, five-yard penalty, Ohio State opted to decline. Urban Meyer flings his headset in anger that the penalty wasn't 15 yards (which would've given the Buckeyes a first down), and Alabama will take over at its own 45.
2014 Ohio State is hanging on ... 34-28, still, with 5:30 to go in the fourth quarter of the 2014 Sugar Bowl ... Alabama's latest punt is downed inside the 5 ...
ReplyDeleteBUT THE BUCKEYES, HAVING NETTED NEGATIVE-12 YARDS IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, SCORE ON AN 85-YARD TOUCHDOWN RUN!
ReplyDelete42-28, Ohio State, with 3:24 to play, after a two-point conversion pass.
ReplyDeleteAnd now here comes Alabama! The Crimson Tide's quarterback sails a throw into the middle of the field beyond Ohio State's secondary, and a receiver carries the ball all the way down to the Buckeye 15!
ReplyDelete2:28 to go, and Alabama has a fourth-and-2 coming up at the Ohio State 6 ... clock ticking toward 2 minutes to play ...
ReplyDeleteTOUCHDOWN!
ReplyDeleteKick good ... 42-35 ... 1:59 to go ... WOW!
ReplyDeleteCorrection. The ESPN color commentator is Todd Blackledge, not Gary Danielson. I don't remember that Dad ever thought Blackledge was going to make a great pro, but he was not surprised when Penn State beat Georgia.
ReplyDeleteI thought Blackledge was going to be a great pro.
DeleteOK, here we go ... 1:33 to play, Alabama ball at its own 18 after a stunning (but unsuccessful) onside kick and then holding Ohio State to a three-and-out possession ...
ReplyDelete20 seconds ... midfield ...
ReplyDelete14 seconds ... out of bounds ... Ohio State 42 ...
ReplyDeleteIncomplete ... 8 seconds ...
ReplyDeleteIntercepted. Game. Great game. Ohio State 42, Alabama 35. Final.
ReplyDelete