I can't remember the last time that the first three games of the NBA Finals were all up for grabs with a few minutes to go. Here is what the Series looks like after Game Three (home teams listed first):
06/03: San Antonio 95 - 105 New York
06/05: San Antonio 104 - 105 New York
06/08: New York 111 - 115 San Antonio
It's the first time since 1993 that the road teams have won the first three games of the Final. That year, the Bulls ended up beating the Suns 4-2 with a 99-98 win in Game Six.
Here are the current odds to win the NBA Title:
New York: -184
San Antonio: +154
So it's very much up for grabs. Personally, I think San Antonio has gotten better in each game so far, which means that New York will be in huge trouble if the Knicks cannot win Game Four at home. For Game Four, Vegas has made New York a 1 1/2 point favorite, and have set the over/under at 216 1/2. Those are almost exactly the same odds as Game Three, and it would mean something like a 109-107 win for New York. I will certainly be tuned in to see what happens.
One other point should be made here. The analytics revolution in both baseball and basketball led to some awkward moments, as teams played in styles that felt somewhat off-putting and artificial. All those popups and strikeouts with a runner on third. All those missed three-pointers when there were driving lanes available. But last year, I thought the MLB playoffs showed that the managers and the players have caught up with the analytics -- the teams took advantage of the analytic insights, but in a way that fit the logic of the game. The result was beautiful; well-played games that had all the traditional virtues, but avoided the obvious mistakes (leaving in tired pitchers, for example) that analytics has corrected.
You can see the same thing in this series. Yes, they shoot a lot of threes. But those shots are not forced -- they develop from offenses that feature beautiful passing and cutting. And the defense has been both intense and clever. The result is a very balanced game that uses the whole floor and is really fun to watch. I always believed in analytics, because I believe in winning. But I'm really pleased to see that analytics doesn't interfere with the beauty and traditions of the game.