The National Championship

It is bright, sunny, and 56 degrees in downtown Washington today.  We have made it through another winter, and it's time to start going outside again.  Back to the lakes.  Back to the rivers.  Back to the hot dog grills, and bass fishing at 6 A.M., and Dollywood, and Paxton Park, and Noble Park, and garage sales, and strawberry picking, and Vacation Bible School, and the Land Between the Lakes.

But tonight, we have one final celebration of light amidst the darkness.  Tonight, there is a game on Ken Pomeroy's FanMatch for the last time until November:

7:49 P.M. Central (TBS):  (3) Michigan (36-3) v. (7) Connecticut (34-5)

The rankings above are based on the final AP poll before the tournament began.  On Ken Pom, UConn is Number 9, with a Luck Ranking of 33, while Michigan is Number 1, with a luck score of 89.  Michigan's Net Rating on Ken Pom is +39.72, which means that over 100 possessions, Michigan will outscore the average opponent by almost 40 points.  It's the highest Net Rating for any team in the Ken Pom database, going back to 1997.  So if Michigan wins tonight, they will have a strong case to be the best team in NCAA basketball since Kentucky's 1996 powerhouse.  

To put the Wolverines in context, consider the following.  In 1998, UK's champions had a Net Rating of +29.29.  In 2012, the National Champion Cats had a Net Rating of +32.59.  The 2015 Cats, who finished 38-1, had a Net Rating of +36.91.  Under Pomeroy's system, on a neutral court, this Michigan team would be a solid favorite against any of those teams.  That's how good they are.

But they aren't out of the woods yet.  They have to overcome a lot of history.  The last Classic Big Ten team to win the national title was Michigan State, who beat Florida in the 2000 final.  Since that time, seven different schools from the Classic Big Ten have reached the NCAA Final, but they have all lost.  Furthermore, they have mostly lost to teams from the East Coast, and most of these matchups have not been close:

2002:  Maryland 64, Indiana 52

2005:  N. Carolina 75, Illinois 70

2007:  Florida 84, Ohio St. 75

2009:  N. Carolina 89, Michigan St. 72

2013:  Louisville 82, Michigan 76

2015:  Duke 68, Wisconsin 63

2018:  Villanova 79, Michigan 62

2024:  Connecticut 75, Purdue 60

However, I would note that in each of those games, the Big Ten team was the underdog.  This time, Ken Pom is picking Michigan to win by 77-70.  No one respects UConn more than I do, but Duke showed that the Huskies can be beaten, and we'll see if Michigan can turn the trick tonight.  Either way, I think this game will mark a significant turning point in college basketball history.  If UConn wins, they are clearly the dominant program of the 21st century.  If Michigan wins, then the Big Ten is well-positioned to control men's basketball in the same way that it now controls football.  After all, the Big Ten used to lose football playoff games -- but they don't any more.

Byington Watch

As Dusty May has turned down UNC, everyone is reporting that Mark Byington of Vanderbilt is under consideration to be the next coach of the Tar Heels.  Of course, that would be a disaster for Vanderbilt, although their Athletic Director has shown serious talent in hiring new coaches.  I don't think it matters that much for UK, because the Cats will be losing to both Vandy and UNC for some time to come.

The last great coach at Vandy was Eddie Fogler, who won the SEC Regular Season title in 1993.  But he was immediately poached by South Carolina.  If the Commodores lose Byington after only two seasons, that will be extremely frustrating.

But these are two very different situations.  Fogler left for South Carolina in large part because Vandy didn't make much of an effort to keep him.  That decision effectively killed Vandy's basketball program for the next 15 years.  Byington just signed a new contract with Vandy, and the Administration has made clear that they intend to build a winning basketball program.  If he leaves, it won't be because Vandy didn't do its best, but because UNC represents a unique opportunity.  It will still hurt for Vandy fans, but at least they won't blame their own administration.

The National Semi-Finals

We will not have another Saturday with college football or college basketball until late August.  I will miss it enormously, but as I grow older I appreciate different seasons more and more.  Today's games represent one of the best Final Fours in many years:

5:09 PM Central (TBS):  (7) Connecticut (33-5) v. (13) Illinois (28-8)

7:49 PM Central (TBS):  (2) Arizona (36-2) v. (3) Michigan (35-3)

This year's tournament is the first time since 2014 that the names of the four teams are also the names of four different states.  In 2014 the Final Four was Connecticut, Kentucky, Florida, and Wisconsin.

Top 20 Home Run Hitters of All Time

There used to be lots of lists like this when I was a kid, but I haven't seen this one in years:

1.  Barry Bonds:  762

2.  Henry Aaron:  755

3.  Babe Ruth:  714

4.  Albert Pujols:  703

5.  Alex Rodriguez:  696

6.  Willie Mays:  660

7.  Ken Griffey, Jr.:  630

8.  Jim Thome:  612

9.  Sammy Sosa:  609

10.  Frank Robinson:  586

11.  Mark McGwire:  583

12.  Harmon Killebrew:  573

13.  Rafael Palmeiro:  569

14.  Reggie Jackson:  563

15.  Manny Ramirez:  555

16.  Mike Schmidt:  548

17.  David Ortiz:  541

18.  Mickey Mantle:  536

19.  Jimmie Foxx:  534

T20.  Willie McCovey:  521

T20.  Frank Thomas:  521

T20.  Ted Williams:  521

The highest ranked active player is Giancarlo Stanton, who has 454 homers.

Regional Finals

Here are today's regional finals (all times Central, AP rankings in parentheses):

MIDWEST REGION FINAL (Chicago, Ill.):

1:15 P.M. (CBS):  (3) Michigan (34-3) v. Tennessee (25-11)

Now that Kentucky has decided to deemphasize basketball, Tennessee has begun to dominate basketball in our part of the country much as it has long done with football.  The Vols are in the Elite Eight for the third year in a row.  UK hasn't been there since 2019, and may never get there again.  U of L hasn't been there since 2015.  Memphis hasn't been there since 2008.  Western hasn't been there since 1971.  Vandy hasn't been there since 1965.

UK fans still make fun of UT because the Vols have never been to the Final Four.  And, to be honest, I do not think they will be able to get past Michigan today.  But you can't go to the Final Four unless you get to the Elite Eight.  Rick Barnes has done an extraordinary job for the Big Orange.  This year, UK beat Tennessee twice.  Vandy took two of three from Tennessee, and eliminated the Vols from the SEC tournament.  But UK and Vandy both went out in the Second Round of the NCAA's, and UT has a shot at the Final Four.  That's really impressive.

Of course, it's also impressive that Dusty May, the Michigan coach, could win the National Title in only his second year at the school.  After all, the Wolverines went 8-24 in 2024, Juwan Howard's last year as coach.  Since then, May has gone 27-10 in 2025 and 34-3 so far this year.  Of course, May has a history here -- he took Florida Atlantic (!) to the Final Four in 2023, so he knows what he is doing.  Michigan was smart to hire a coach who had enjoyed so much success in the NCAA Tournament, and we can only wish that UK had done the same.  But of course, Michigan was trying to win, and UK apparently was not.

EAST REGION FINAL (Washington, DC):

4:05 P.M. (CBS):  (1) Duke (35-2) v. (7) Connecticut (32-5)

On March 24, 1990, Duke beat UConn 79-78 on a buzzer beater by Christian Laettner in overtime to win the East Region.  At that point, neither Duke nor UConn had ever won the NCAA Championship.  Since then, however, they have played a dominant role.  The Blue Devils have five titles:  1991, 1992, 2001, 2010, and 2015.  The Huskies have six:  1999, 2004, 2011, 2014, 2023, and 2024.  And people can say whatever they want about Arizona and Michigan, but I can assure you that those of us who live on the East Coast expect the winner of this game to go all the way -- if only because they so often do.

To me, the tournament began with five teams who could win it all:  Duke, UConn, Arizona, Michigan, and Florida.  The Gators went out last week, but the other four are still dancing.  This game is the first time in the tournament that any of the true favorites are going against each other.  I'm very excited to see what will happen.