Classic SEC Update

Based on the Ken Pom rankings, an old-school 10-team SEC men's basketball tournament would look like this (seeds in parentheses):

Upper bracket:

(1) Florida (16-6) v. (8) Louisiana St (14-8) or (9) Mississippi (11-10)

(4) Alabama (14-7) v. (5) Auburn (14-8)

Lower bracket:

(2) Vanderbilt (19-3) v. (7) Georgia (16-6) or (10) Mississippi St. (11-11)

(3) Tennessee (15-6) v. (6) Kentucky (15-7)

There are some really good quarter-final matchups here.

However, in terms of the modern SEC, the top of the league looks like this:

Texas A & M:  7-1

Florida:  7-2

Vanderbilt:  6-3

Arkansas:  6-3

Kentucky:  6-3

Tennessee:  5-3

Auburn:  5-4

Missouri:  5-4

Alabama:  4-4

Texas:  4-5

Georgia:  4-5

Pope Update

In what I regard as a stunning upset, Kentucky went to Arkansas and won 85 to 77.  The Cats run their record to 6-3 in the SEC and 15-7 overall.  They move to number 30 on Ken Pom, and Ken Pom now has the Cats finishing 11-7 in the SEC and 20-11 overall.  That record would certainly get them into the NCAA's and win another year for Mark Pope.

It was a crazy game.  Doug Shows was there as one of the officials, and UK got the full Doug Shows experience.  There were four technical fouls called on UK early in the second half to help Arkansas take the lead, but then we had make-up technical fouls on Arkansas that helped even things out.  The Cats blew a 13-pioint lead, fell behind by 4 points with 11:28 left (thanks to the technical fouls), and then outscored Arkansas 32-20 the rest of the way.  Cal's team did Cal stuff -- they were 3-14 from three-point range, and 16-26 from the line, and all those missed shots really hurt.  But UK also pounded Arkansas at the line -- outrebounding them 35-26, and that usually does not happen to Calipari's teams.  This game was the first time all year where I really felt like the UK players were as angry as the UK fans.

Anyway, under different circumstances I would have a lot to say, but I don't think I'm going to be that invested in Kentucky for a very long time.  So I will say only that I'm happy to have been wrong, and I'm genuinely happy for all the folks in Kentucky who stay loyal to the Cayts, and who think the job of a fan is to support the team, win, lose or draw.  It's not my philosophy, and sometimes it drives me nuts, but it's a beautiful dream, and I certainly understand its appeal.

Pope Update

We've reached the stage of the proceedings where Seth Greenberg is attacking the UK fans for having expectations that are unrealistically high.

K-Pom has Arkansas beating UK 84-77 tonight.  Vegas has Arkansas winning by 6 1/2 points with a total over/under of 161.5.  That would come out to a score of something like . . . . 84 to 77, which makes me think that the bettors must be following Ken Pom.

I'm putting myself out there, and going on record as saying that I will be absolutely stunned if UK covers that 6 1/2 point spread.

Meanwhile, here are the top 20 boys' basketball teams in the Commonwealth, according to MaxPreps:

1.  Madison Cent:  20-1

2.  Cov. Catholic:  20-1

3.  Lou. St. Xavier:  15-5

4.  Daviess Co:  18-3

5.  Warren Cent:  15-3

6.  Geo. Rogers Clark:  15-3

7.  Lou. Jeffersontown:  12-3

8.  N. Oldham:  13-5

9.  Lex. Frederick Douglass:  11-5

10.  McCracken Co:  18-3

11.  Boyd Co:  15-5

12.  N. Laurel:  16-4

13.  Lou. Male:  14-6

14.  Lou. Butler:  15-5

15.  Christian Academy-Louisville:  15-5

16.  Lou. Ballard:  12-5

17.  Grayson Co:  15-4

18.  Lou. DuPont Manual:  11-5

19.  Bell Co:  15-3

20.  Ashland Blazer:  13-4

Is the Internet Amazing?

First, thank you, GoHeath, for keeping the doors open the last several weeks.

Second, I've decided to re-open this question for myself after a friend's now years of answering in the negative after being onboard for years before that.

Third, I doubt the question actually matters because we are here now and I can't imagine we would or maybe even could go back. The relevant question today, shared by millions of people in formal and informal conversations around the world, is how to make the internet better (safer, more beneficial to more people, more profitable, less expensive ... there are a zillion, many contradictory ways to define "better"). But most of the time I spend at the HP is spent on thinking about questions that are no longer especially relevant (e.g., How would my life have been different had I chosen to watch the Dukes of Hazzard pilot instead of the Hello, Larry pilot on the Friday night of Jan. 26, 1979?), so I'm not going to get too suddenly embarrassed about being slow on the uptake now.

Pope Update

Cats were hammered last night in Memorial Gymnasium.  Even without Duke Miles, its second-best player, Vandy blew the doors off UK.  The Commodores were up 43-23 at the half, and then trotted home as easy winners by the score of 80 to 55.

Cats fall to 5-3 in the SEC and 14-7 overall.  They are down to 32 on Ken Pom, who has UK as underdogs in six of their remaining ten games (games where the Cats are favored in bold):

at Arkansas (27 percent chance of a UK victory)

OKLAHOMA (78 percent)

TENNESSEE (53 percent)

at Florida (21 percent)

GEORGIA (64 percent)

at Auburn (33 percent)

at S. Carolina (61 percent)

VANDERBILT (42 percent)

at Texas A & M (39 percent)

FLORIDA (41 percent)

But my guess is that these calculations will change after Saturday.  Ken Pom has Arkansas beating UK by 84 to 78, and I don't think the game will be that close.  So the Cats will likely fall further in the rankings, which would lower their chances in the remaining games.

Here's my prediction.  If Kentucky finishes 9-9 or below in the SEC, I do not think they will be in the NCAA Tournament.  And that will have a huge impact on what happens next in Lexington.  So every one of these games really matters.

At this point in 2009, the Cats were 5-1 in the SEC and 16-5 overall.  At that point, it looked as though Billy Gillespie was likely to make the tournament and survive for another year.  He already had road wins over Tennessee, Georgia, and Alabama.  But the roof fell in after that.  UK went 3-7 in its last ten games, ending the regular season on a four-game losing streak.  They finished 8-8 in the SEC, and 19-12 overall.  They missed the NCAA Tournament, and Gillespie was fired only one season after being named as co-SEC Coach of the Year for the 2007-08 season.

Assuming that Florida beats South Carolina in the last midweek game, the top of the SEC will look like this:

Texas A & M:  6-1

Florida:  6-2

Arkansas:  6-2

Vanderbilt:  5-3

Auburn:  5-3

Kentucky:  5-3

Alabama:  4-3

Tennessee:  4-3

Seven of UK's last ten games are against teams on that list.