Here's the situation. No one -- not one single person -- believes that Mark Pope is going to turn UK into a serious basketball power. That's just a fact. But the folks in Lexington have decided that they would rather have Pope be the face of the program than deal with the type of difficult personality who would be able to take UK back to the Final Four. And, of course, most folks in the media want to maintain good relations with the folks in Lexington. So, the Administration and the media are solidly behind Mark Pope.
Now the ideal outcome here for the Administration and the media is that the decline of the UK basketball program happen in such a gradual manner that they can plausibly maintain that he's about to turn the corner. So they really, really want Pope and the Cats to make the NCAA Tournament -- not because UK will have any success in the tournament, but because it will allow them to make the argument that he deserves to come back next year. And then we'll have the same argument next year.
So tonight's game against UGA was big for the Administration -- they need ten wins in the SEC, they only have eight, and four of the last five games after this one are really difficult.
On the other hand, the fans who would like to see UK go back to the Final Four in this century have a strong incentive to see the Cats fail now. If UK would collapse down the stretch, and miss the tournament altogether, the Administration would come under tremendous pressure to make a change.
In short, everyone knows the program is in decline -- but the Administration wants slow decline (like what happened to Indiana after Bobby Knight left) -- and the hardcore fans want fast decline (like what happened with Billy Gillespie).
Early on, it looked like fast decline was coming. The Cats were blown out in game after game, and even Pope's champions in the media were finding it difficult to come up with anything hopeful to say.
But then, the Cats won a whole series of close games. They beat LSU on a buzzer beater. They beat Tennessee by two points on the road. They won five games in which they were behind by double digits. They got their record to 8-3 in the SEC, and they appeared to be a solid 6 or 7 seed in the NCAA's -- exactly the type of season that Mitch Barnhart is hoping for.
Significantly, however, the analytics showed that the team was not actually getting better -- it had just been lucky. And luck has a way of turning. Tonight, the Cats ran into a Georgia team that was fighting for its life. The Bulldogs were 5-7 in the SEC, and had lost five of their last six. Georgia really needed this game. And that was bad news for the Cats. Georgia outhustled UK, and outfought the Cats, and were much the more enthusiastic team. Worst of all, they went 14-31 from three-point range, which is what their offense needed.
Of course, the Cats made another attempt to come from behind. With 1:18 left in the game, UK had the ball down only 81-78. It looked tailor-made for another comeback. But luck does run out. Otega Oweh, UK's only first-rate player, came dribbling up the floor, drove toward the basket -- and dribbled the ball off his knee and out of bounds. UGA came down and scored at the other end, and that was it. The Dawgs won 86-78, for their first victory at Rupp Arena until they beat Gillespie back in 2009.
It was a dark day for the Administration. And the Media. But it offers rays of hope to anyone who would like to see a national power in Lexington one more time.
UK falls to 31 on Ken Pom, who has them projected to finish 10-8 in the SEC and 19-12 overall. To achieve that goal, the Cats have to win two of their last five games:
02/21: at Auburn
02/24: at S. Carolina
02/28: VANDERBILT
03/03: at Texas A & M
03/07: FLORIDA
To me, their best chances are at South Carolina and home to Vandy. I think the other three games are very heavy lifts for the Cats.
For the record, Matt Jones is hammering Pope on Twitter. Here's an example:
There were a lot of issues in this game . . . missed Free Throws, turnovers, giving up open three point looks and a couple of guys playing horrendous defense. But the biggest in my mind was how awful Pope's substitution pattern was in that first half. Completely changed the game.
Jones is clearly signaling that he's not going down with this particular ship, and I don't blame him. He's done everything he can to support Pope, and he risks his own credibility with the fan base if he doesn't take a tougher line.
