Saturday, March 14, 2026

Byington Update

On December 21, 2025, Vandy beat Wake Forest -- on the road -- 98 to 67.  The win ran Vandy's record to 12-0 and pushed its ranking on Ken Pom all the way up to Number 8.   But Duke Miles, the Vanderbilt shooting guard, missed the next two games -- and still wasn't at 100 percent when SEC play resumed.  Miles finally missed six games in a row between January 27 and February 18, and did not play more than 30 minutes in any game until Vandy's overtime win at Ole Miss on March 3.  That game, which Vandy won 89-86, was Miles's first appearance with more than 30 minutes since January 17.  But yesterday, in the SEC quarter-finals against Tennessee, Miles carried the Commodores to victory with 30 points.  It was his sixth MVP award of the season from Ken Pom, but his first since December 17.

The one good thing about Miles's absence was that it allowed Tyler Tanner, Vandy's sophomore point guard, to become a start.  According to Ken Pom, Tanner was the most valuable player in the SEC, and he kept Vandy afloat through a very long and difficult stretch of SEC play where the Dores did not have all their weapons.

Vandy had also been in a shooting slump of late.  As a team, Vandy makes 35.4 percent from 3-point range.  But they went 7-28 (25.0 percent) in a loss at Lexington on February 28, then 9-32 (28.1 percent) in a win at Ole Miss, 5-10 (50.0 percent) in a win at Knoxville, and 7-27 (25.9 percent) in a win over UT in the SEC quarter-finals.  For those four games, in other words, the Dores went 28-97 (28.9 percent) from three-point range -- well below their average.  They were due to get hot.

And today, they did.  With Miles back at full strength today (33 minutes, 15 points, 7 assists), Tanner looking like an NBA player (20 points, 8 assists, 3 steals, only 1 turnover), and the Dores finally hitting from the outside (10-21, 47.6 percent), Vanderbilt blew the Florida Gators off the court.  Coming into this game, Florida was on a 12-game winning streak.  The Gators had zoomed up to number 4 on both Ken Pom and the AP rankings.  They were 26-6, with all six losses coming by nine points or less.  At almost no point in any game all year had they been far behind.  All that ended today.  Vandy was up 47-34 at the half -- and then built the lead to 76-51 (!) with 8:11 left in the game, before cruising home with a surprisingly easy 91 to 74 win.  Vandy advances to the SEC finals for only the second time since the tournament was restarted in 1979 -- and the first time since the Dores won the tournament in 2012.

Florida fans will remember that Kentucky lost to Vandy in the final of that 2012 tournament -- and then regrouped to win the NCAA's.  And I believe that Florida will be a very tough out in the big tournament.  The Gators controlled a very physical slugfest with Kentucky yesterday, and I'm not sure anyone can beat Vandy when they are as hot as they were today.  This loss will help the Gators focus and prepare for next week, even if it costs them a Number One seed.

But meanwhile, today belongs to Vanderbilt, which captured one of the greatest wins in its history.  If the Commodores retain the services of Coach Mark Byington, the 49-year-old wizard who has gotten them this far in only two years, they should be formidable for many years to come.  Vandy has always been a sleeping giant of basketball -- they have money, a great school, a great conference, and the best gymnasium in college sports.  But they've never been willing to do what was needed to hire -- and retain -- a top-notch coach.  Byington now appears to be that coach, and we'll see if Vandy keeps him.

Friday, March 13, 2026

Pope Update

For the fourth year in a row, Kentucky is eliminated on Friday in the SEC quarter-finals.  The Cats tried hard, and I'm sure they did their best, but they just aren't in Florida's league.  No one can shoot in Bridgestone Arena -- and that includes the Gators, who were 3-20 from three-point range.  But as the smaller and less physical team, UK needed to make outside shots, and the Cats went 5-23 from behind the arc, even after two games of practice.  UK's poor outside shooting sank the Cats, as they were utterly dominated inside.  The Gators outrebounded UK 50 to 29, and the Gators took 33 free throws to only 20 for UK.

The Cats will go into the NCAA Tournament with a record of 0-3 against Florida, and 21-10 against everyone else, for an overall record of 21-13.  The Cats went 12-9 against SEC opponents this year, or 12-6 against SEC opponents not named Florida.  The Cats are 28 on Ken Pom, and 233 in Luck.  They will have a struggle to reach the Second Round of the NC2A's.

From the outside, it appears that UK has had a wacky season this year, with all sorts of ups and downs.  But that's not really true.  After Alabama beat UK on January 3, the Cats fell to 25 on Ken Pom.  Since that time, they have never been higher than 24 (after they beat Tennessee on the road), and they have never been lower than 33 (after they were blown out at Vandy).  They are, and have been for the last two months, a team that should go to the NCAA Tournament, but should not be ranked by the AP.

The only reason anyone was ever confused about UK's status is because, for reasons that I have never understood, they began the season ranked very high.  And here, I think, it's fair to complain about the press.  I have watched a lot of college basketball this year -- it's been one of the best seasons in many years, and there are a number of great teams.  There is simply no way that anyone who has seen Duke, or Michigan, or Florida, or Purdue, or Houston, or Arizona, or Illinois, or UConn, could pretend that UK was at the same level as those teams.  And the injuries make very little difference to these facts.  UK simply wasn't a significantly better team even with all its parts.  I have no idea why so many commentators pretended that guys like Otega Oweh and Denzel Aberdeen were better than they are.

UPDATE:  In the second quarterfinal, Vanderbilt defeated Tennessee 75 to 68.  So Vandy takes two out of three from the Vols.  On this basis, I am going to award Vanderbilt the championship of the Eighth Region.  It is the first time since 1974 that the Commodores have captured that title.  Vandy moves to 25-7 on the year, 13 on Ken Pom, and 120 in Luck.  Tennessee is 22-11 on the year, 15 on Ken Pom, and 322 in luck.  This year Tennessee had a four-point loss (at home) to Kentucky, a three-point loss (on the road) to Kentucky, a two-point loss (at home) to Alabama, a four-point loss (at home) to Vandy, and now another loss to Vandy.

Ken Pom believes that Florida will beat Vanderbilt in the semi-finals tomorrow by a score of 83 to 77.

Thursday, March 12, 2026

Pope Update

Kentucky has reached the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament with a 78-72 victory over 8-seeded Mizzou in Nashville.  The Cats led by as many as 16 points early in the second half, but lost that entire lead due to a dominant performance by Mark Mitchell, a Mizzou forward who led all scorers with 32 points.  With 2:34 left in the game, Mitchell put Mizzou ahead 70-69, but the Cats responded with a 7-0 run that left them in control.  Both Otega Oweh (21 points) and Denzel Aberdeen (16 points) had huge, late-in-the-shot-clock, drive-to-the-basket-and-get-fouled-but-they-don't-call-the-foul-because-it's-late-in-a-close-SEC-game buckets to give UK the victory.

For the first time since 2018, the Cats have won two games in the SEC Tournament.  They are now 21-12 on the year, and ranked 27 on Ken Pom.  Their Luck score has improved to 212.

While the close wins over LSU and Mizzou were entertaining, tomorrow the scrappy Cats play the Big Kids.  Florida, the National Champions, brings its 11-game winning streak to Nashville for a noon tip-off.  In 80 minutes against Florida this year, the Cats have never held the lead.  The Gators rolled over UK 92-83 in Gainesville on Valentine's Day, and cruised to an easy 84-77 victory in Rupp last Saturday.  Ken Pom thinks the Gators will win this game 83-73, although he gives UK an 18 percent chance of pulling the upset.

UK hasn't made the semi-finals of the SEC Tournament since 2022.  Here are their last three trips to the quarter-finals, none of which was impressive:

03/10/23:  Vanderbilt 80, Kentucky 73
03/15/24:  Texas A & M 97, Kentucky 87
03/14/25:  Alabama 99, Kentucky 70

Wednesday, March 11, 2026

Pope Update

In the 9-16 matchup at the SEC Tournament in Nashville, the Cats beat LSU 87 to 82.  Brandon Garrison was the MVP of the game, behind 17 points -- including two three-pointers.  Kam Williams came back, and scored 3 points in 17 minutes.  The Cats move to 20-12 on the year, and they advance to play Number-8 seed Mizzou tomorrow afternoon.  UK remains at Number 27 on Ken Pom, with a ranking of 233 for luck.

My guess is that today's game will end the Matt McMahon era at LSU.  In four seasons, he has gone 17-55 in the SEC.  Interestingly, his team's rankings on Ken Pom have improved every year -- from 151 to 95 to 88 to 62.  But I will be surprised if he gets another year at LSU.  After all, they have standards.  It will be a bad day for UK if LSU brings in a big-name coach.

16 Teams Left

Here is the draw for next week's KHSAA Boys' Basketball Tournament:

Wednesday, March 18:
(1) Cov. Catholic Colonels (31-2) v. (4) Lou. St. Xavier Tigers (26-7)
(3) Warren Cent. Dragons (26-3) v. (16) N. Laurel Jaguars (28-7)
Taylor Co. Cardinals (26-9) v. Grayson Co. Cougars (25-6)
Danville Christian Warriors (23-7) v. Great Crossing Warhawks (23-11)

Thursday, March 19:
(19) Lou. Butler Bears (26-5) v. Hazard Bulldogs (24-10)
(5) N. Oldham Mustangs (25-5) v. Lyon Co. Lyons (29-6)
(6) Geo. Rogers Clark Cardinals (29-4) v. Johnson Cent. Golden Eagles (28-5)
(10) Boyd Co. Lions (29-6) v. Marshall Co. Marshals (24-8)

Every team in this year's State Tournament has won at least 23 games, and the great majority have been to the tournament within the last five years.  It should be very competitive.