Here are the last ten winners of the PGA Championship:
2016: Jimmy Walker: -14 (Baltusrol G.C., Springfield, N.J.)
2017: Justin Thomas: -8 (Quail Hollow Club, Charlotte, N.C.)
2018: Brooks Koepka: -16 (Bellerive C.C., Town and Country, Mo.)
2019: Brooks Koepka: -8 (Bethpage Black Course, Farmingdale, N.Y.)
2020: Collin Morikawa: -13 (TPC Harding Park, San Francisco)
2021: Phil Mickelson: -6 (Kiawah Island Golf Resort, Kiawah Island, S.C.)
2022: Justin Thomas: -5 (Southern Hills, Tulsa, Okla.)
2023: Brooks Koepka: -9 (Oak Hill, East Course, Rochester, N.Y.)
2024: Xander Schauffele: -21 (Valhalla G.C., Louisville, Ky.)
2025: Scottie Scheffler: -11 (Quail Hollow Club, Charlotte, N.C.)
This year, the PGA Championship is being held at Aronimink G.C., a lovely old course in the western suburbs of Philadelphia. Aronimink is a classic course, but it has not hosted a major since Gary Player won the PGA there in 1962. The last time the pros game to Aronimink was in 2018, when it hosted the BMW Championship. The pros torched the course -- Keegan Bradley won in a playoff after shooting 20 under par (66+64+66+64 = 260). And most folks expected that type of scoring to happen again.
It has not, however, for two reasons. First, the conditions have been quite breezy this week, making it more difficult than usual for the pros to control the flight of their shots. But even more importantly, whoever makes the pin placements decided to put the pins in locations that are extremely difficult to reach. When the hole is only a few yards from the edge of the green, even the best golfers are discouraged from shooting at the flag.
The two best golfers in the world -- Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy -- have both complained about this setup. Their point is that when you put the flags in such inaccessible locations, you take away many of the the benefits of long driving and iron accuracy. McIlroy further explained that while it's very difficult to make a very low score this week, its not that hard to make a lot of pars -- you just aim for the middle of the green and two-putt. In other words, the course is not separating the truly excellent players from the good players -- which is what the greatest courses do.
We've seen this phenomenon in two recent U.S. Opens -- neither of which was won by McIlroy or Scheffler. In 2023, the National Open went to the Los Angeles C.C., and both Rickie Fowler and Xander Schauffele opened with 8-under par 62's. Obviously panicked over the potential for such low scores at the National Open, the USGA made it extremely difficult for players to make birdie the rest of the way. The final round was a slog, as Wyndham Clark held off McIlroy and Scheffler as all three men shot even par 70's. McIlroy and Scheffler are plainly better golfers than Clark, but on the day they simply couldn't make the birdies they needed, while Clark was content to play for pars.
Last year, the U.S. Open went to Oakmont, which was set up in such a way that it was extremely difficult to make a good score. Furthermore, the final round was played in a driving rainstorm that created even more challenges. The result was a fairly boring leaderboard, with J.J. Spaun outlasting everyone for the title.
As a young fan, I enjoyed penal golf courses like the U.S. Opens of my youth. But I outgrew that viewpoint. Now I believe that McIlroy is correct, and that the job of a major tournament is to identify the truly great golfer. For example, two years ago, at Valhalla, we were treated to an incredible shootout between Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau, and Viktor Hovland -- three of the best players in the world at the time. Schauffele's winning score of 263 was very low, but the element of drama on the last day was far superior to the Sunday slogs at Los Angeles C.C. and Oakmont described above. And we all felt comfortable that Schauffele had truly earned his spot in history.
However, I know that not everyone agrees with me on this point, and certain club members will always be unhappy if the scores at their course are too low. Thus, there will always be tournaments like this one where the Andy Norths of the Tour have a better chance to prevail -- and I'll be watching anyway. If nothing else, I will enjoy seeing a beautiful old golf course, a large and enthusiastic Philly crowd, and what should be a close and tight struggle.
With one round to go, the top of the crowded leaderboard looks like this:
1. Alex Smalley: -6 (67+69+68=204)
T2. Matti Schmid (GER): -4 (69+72+65=206)
T2. Nick Taylor (CAN): -4 (69+72+65=206)
T2. Jon Rahm (ESP): -4 (69+70+67=206)
T2. Aaron Rai (ENG): -4 (70+69+67=206)
T2. Ludvig Aberg (SWE): -4 (72+66+68=206)
T7. Rory McIlroy (NIR): -3 (74+67+66=207)
T7. Xander Schauffele: -3 (68+73+66=207)
T7. Patrick Reed: -3 (68+72+67=207)
T7. Maverick McNealy: -3 (69+67+71=207)
Lots of other folks are also in contention. Justin Rose, Martin Kaymer, Cameron Smith, and Hideki Matsuyama are part of an 11-way tie (!) at 2 under par. Brooks Koepka, Rickie Fowler, and Scottie Scheffler are part of an 8-way tie (!!) at 1 under par. In all, there is a total of 30 men who will tee off today within five shots of the lead, which is almost unheard of. Here are the favorites, listed by odds to win:
Smalley: +480
Rahm: +550
Aberg: +550
McIlroy: +700
Schauffele: +1300
Scheffler: +1600
Taylor: +1800
Rai: +1800
I can't remember the last time a tournament was this wide open going into the last day.
