Soccer Update

It has been a relatively dull soccer season unless you are a Liverpool fan.  In England, Liverpool has already clinched the Premier League title with four games left in the season.  In Scotland, Celtic has done the same.  The F.A. Cup final will be between Crystal Palace and Manchester City, and the Scottish F.A. Cup final will be Aberdeen v. Celtic (Rangers was upset by Queen's Park in the Round of 16).

So that leaves the Champions League.  You will recall that a few years ago, UEFA changed the rules so that teams had to fund themselves from their soccer operations.  This rule was intended to prevent owners from using their fortunes to build super teams, but as a practical matter it gives an incredible advantage to the three biggest clubs in Europe:  Barcelona, Real Madrid, and Bayern Munich.  Since 2012, these three clubs have dominated the Champions League.  Only the English clubs have been able to challenge them:

2013:  Bayern Munich (GER)
2014:  Real Madrid (ESP)

2015:  Barcelona (ESP)

2016:  Real Madrid (ESP)

2017:  Real Madrid (ESP)

2018:  Real Madrid (ESP)

2019:  Liverpool (ENG)

2020:  Bayern Munich (GER)

2021:  Chelsea (ENG)

2022:  Real Madrid (ESP)

2023:  Manchester City (ENG)
2024:  Real Madrid (ESP)

This system has largely killed my interest in the Champions' League, as there's not much point in watching so long as Real Madrid is alive.  And so, when Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Bayern Munich all cruised into the quarter-finals during this season, I felt pretty safe in ignoring the competition -- especially as Liverpool had already been eliminated by Paris Saint-Germain.  But then we had some upsets.  Here were the quarter-final results over two legs:

Aston Villa (ENG) 4 - 5 Paris Saint-Germain (FRA)

Real Madrid (ESP) 1 - 5 Arsenal (ENG)
Borussia Dortmund (GER) 3 - 5 Barcelona (ESP)

Inter Milan (ITA) 4 - 3 Bayern Munich (GER)

So that gives us the following two-leg semi-finals:

Paris Saint-Germain (FRA) v. Arsenal (ENG)
Inter Milan (ITA) v. Barcelona (ESP)

PSG has already eliminated Liverpool and Aston Villa, and my guess is that they will complete their sweep over the English clubs by eliminating Arsenal.  And I expect Barca to roll over Inter and PSG to keep the title in the hands of the Big Three.  But at least it won't be Real Madrid, and that's about all we can hope for these days.

NBA Update

So we are going through one of those forgettable periods in NBA history, where there are no great teams and you have a different champion every year.   Here are the NBA Finals since COVID:

2020:  L.A. Lakers 4, Miami 2

2021:  Milwaukee 4, Phoenix 2

2022:  Golden St. 4, Boston 2

2023:  Denver 4, Miami 1

2024:  Boston 4, Dallas 1

But that may finally be about to change.  Here are the current odds to win the NBA title this year:

Oklahoma City:  +180

Boston:  +190

Cleveland:  +600

L.A. Lakers:  +1100

So, it seems very likely that the Celtics will reach the final for the third time in four years, and they have a good chance to repeat as champions.  If so, they will be the first repeat winner since the Warriors repeated in 2017 and 2018.

Here are the matchups for the first round:

EASTERN CONFERENCE:

(1) Cleveland (64-18) v. (8) Miami (37-45)

(4) Indiana (50-32) v. (5) Milwaukee (48-34)

(3) New York (51-31) v. (6) Detroit (44-38)

(2) Boston (61-21) v. (7) Orlando (41-41)

As you can see from the above, the oddsmakers have made the Celtics heavy favorites here.  I probably won't pay attention until the Eastern Conference finals, and then only if the Celtics draw the Cavs.

WESTERN CONFERENCE:

(1) Oklahoma City (68-14) v. (8) Memphis (48-34)

(4) Denver (50-32) v. (5) L.A. Clippers (50-32)

(3) L.A. Lakers (50-32) v. (6) Minnesota (49-33)

(2) Houston (52-30) v. (7) Golden St. (48-34)

Luka Doncic led Dallas to the NBA Finals last year, but this year -- as NBA teams often seem to do -- the Mavericks committed seppuku by giving Doncic to the Lakers in exchange for Anthony Davis.  This publication loves Anthony Davis, but he's 31 years old and unfortunately he may never be healthy again.  So the Mavs are out of it, and LeBron has a running mate to help him make a run.  We will keep an eye on the LeBron's to see if they can get to the Western Conference final.  But the bookmakers have the Thunder as an overwhelming favorite to win the West, and they are probably right.

Here at the Heath Post, our top goal for the NBA would be for the Washington Wizards to become a great power.  Since the Wiz only won 18 games this year, our goal for the playoffs -- as usual -- is to watch a Seventh Game in the NBA Finals.  OKC v. Boston probably gives us the best chance for that matchup, but there hasn't been a Game 7 in the Finals since 2016, so we won't hold our breath.

2020 NFL Draft 5 Years Later

With the 2025 NFL draft just around the corner it's time to take a look at the draft that occurred 5 years ago.  We are going to look at it a few different ways but it's always fun to pick out a few teams and focus on them.  

Let's start by looking at the Dallas Cowboys.  PFF gave the Dallas Cowboys an A+ on their draft that year.  If you look a their picks of consensus top 200 talent from that draft class they earned 178 points in value.  This is according to https://jacklich10.com/bigboard/nfl/.  That is top of the class.  If you look at Pro Football Reference data they averaged 17.75 value points per player they drafted, which is an A according to my grading scale, with their 7 picks and a total of 124.23 points for their team from that draft which is a B.  They had three big hits WR CeeDee Lamb, CB Trevon Diggs and C Tyler Biadasz.  Biadasz was one guy who was considered a high value pick in the draft, he was a consensus top 100 pick that they got at 146. Then they did it again with edge Bradlee Anae at 179.  Anae would not have much of a career.  He had tested poorly in the combine and that was credited with his slip back in the draft.  Still taking someone who was a consensus top 100 player in the 5th round is sound drafting and got them good draft grades.  Dallas is an odd team.  The person in charge of their drafting, Will McClay, is considered to be one of the best in the NFL and a reason why the Cowboys have been able to stay competitive despite having an owner who spends some of the least amount of cash on his roster.  

The Cincinnati Bengals got an A from PFF on their post draft score and that is reflected in that they got 147 points of value with their picks.  All 7 of their picks were considered top 200 talents and that is something that really impresses the draft analyzers.  In terms of how impactful the draft was for the team, well they have gained 152.51 points for their team over the last 5 years from that draft.  That's the second highest of any team and they averaged 21.79 value points per player they drafted which is number 1.  Out of 7 picks they also had three big hits, QB Joe Burrow, WR Tee Higgins, and LB Logan Wilson.  The good thing is all 7 of their picks contributed, all 7 of their picks only played for Cincinnati, and all but one were still in the NFL in 2024.    Only 4 of Dallas's picks were still in the NFL in 2024 and only 2 of those were still with Dallas in 2024.  The Bengals poor drafting has been designated as their biggest problem in 2024, but in 2020 it was their drafting that helped to setup their run to the Super Bowl.  The Bengals are taking the position that it was not their drafting but their coaching on defense that failed to develop players.  It will be interesting to see how things fare for them in 2025.  

Here we have to talk about the Minnesota Vikings.  They had 15 picks in 2020 and lead all teams in total points added to their team from this draft at 160.59.  They also had 101 value points vs consensus in their top 200 consensus player picks.  This draft netted them a B from PFF and I'm not surprised since they took some wild swings with many of their later picks in the draft.  Still they have gotten consistent play out of many of their picks though their first round was a bit of a hit/miss.  WR Justin Jefferson has given them 57 points of value he was pick number 22 in the draft.  They also had a second 1st round pick and they took CB Jeff Gladney.  Gladney played for the Vikings in his first season starting the majority of games, but was released after the season for domestic violence and then later died in a car crash, never playing again in the NFL.  In the 5th and 6th rounds the Vikings gook WR KJ Osborn, T Blake Brandel, and S Josh Metellus.  All are still with the Vikings and have combined for just over 38 value points added to the Vikings.  Just goes to show that if you have 15 picks in a draft there is a good chance you can add real value to your team.  

Of course that isn't always the case look at the Jacksonville Jaguars.  Their 2020 draft was a complete mess.  PFF gave their draft an A, but by my analysis their post draft score should have been a C only getting 8 points of value from the top 200 talent they drafted with their 12 picks.  From those 12 picks they have only garnered 64.64 value points over these last five years and only averaged 5.39 value points per draft pick with the players they selected.  They also had two first round picks.  CB CJ Henderson, number 9 pick, contributed 4 points to the Jaguars and 12 points total to the NFL.  He was no longer in the NFL in 2024.  DE K'Lavon Chaisson, taken 20th overall, contributed 7 points of value to the Jaguars and only 10 points to the NFL as a whole.  Still 12 picks lands them a C grade when it comes to team value gained from the draft, so not the worst.  

The worst was the Tennessee Titans who only gained a total of 20.2 point from their 6 picks in the 2020 draft and only averaged 3.37 career value points per draft pick.  Only 2 of these players were still in the NFL in 2024 and none were playing for Tennessee.  The biggest bust was their first round pick T Isaiah Wilson who they took 21 spots ahead of consensus.  He never played in the NFL showing no interest in playing after being drafted.  One issue as well was that with their final 2 picks they took some swings which both failed.  One was for a QB Cole McDonald who never played in the NFL.  The other was for S Chris Jackson who they took 282 spots ahead of consensus and who played 3 years and only provided them with 2 points of value.  That really only gave them 4 picks of consensus top 200 players and none of them did much and two of those players they took well ahead of consensus.  

Here are screen shots of the data. The grades are my grades based on the numbers.  

Here are the teams ranked by Total Value Added to Their Team 

Here are the teams ranked by Average Career Value Per Pick  

Here are the teams ranked by Value Added from Consensus Top 200 Picks 

Finally here are the teams listed alphabetically

KEY:  

Tscore: is the total value added to the team from the draft

TTScore: is the total value added to the NFL from the draft

ATScore:  is the total value added to the team - (total value added to the NFL - total value added to the team). This score can be helpful to see if teams are making the most out of their draft picks.  

VPP:  Average value added to NFL per player from the draft

T200total:  Consensus value added from top 200 consensus picks

RawTotal:  Consensus value added from all picks based on consensus

Note on consensus data not all players were in the consensus data I used.  This is one reason why I focused specifically on top 200 consensus players.  Research has shown that the top 200 consensus players ranking out performs NFL teams over time.  

NCAA Wrap-Up

This year's tournament marked the 50th NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament that I have watched, going all the way back to 1975, when UK made a run to the finals.  I calculate UK's record over those 50 tournaments as follows:

29 trips to the Regional Semifinals (1 point each) = 29 points

22 trips to the Regional Finals (2 points each) = 44 points

11 trips to the Final Four (4 points each) = 44 points

7 trips to the National Final (8 points each) = 56 points

4 National Championships (16 points each) = 64 points

That's a record of 44-25 in games after the first two rounds, and a total of 237 points.

If you apply that standard to all other teams, then here is your top 20 over the last 50 NCAA Tournaments:

1.  Duke:  51-25 (292 points) (1991, 1992, 2001, 2010, 2015)

2.  N. Carolina:  51-26 (287) (1982, 1993, 2005, 2009, 2017)

3.  Kentucky:  44-25 (237) (1978, 1996, 1998, 2012)

4.  Connecticut:  31-11 (213) (1999, 2004, 2011, 2014, 2023, 2024)

5.  Kansas:  35-21 (192) (1988, 2008, 2022)

6.  Louisville:  26-18 (149) (1980, 1985, 2013)

7.  U.C.L.A.:  25-21 (141) (1975, 1995)

8.  Michigan St:  27-18 (138) (1979, 2000)

9.  Florida:  23-9 (136) (2006, 2007, 2025)

10.  Indiana:  20-14 (133) (1976, 1981, 1987)

11.  Villanova:  21-10 (125) (1985, 2016, 2018)

12.  Michigan:  23-14 (123) (1989)

13.  Syracuse:  18-20 (101) (2003)

14.  Arizona:  18-20 (91) (1997)

15.  Georgetown:  16-10 (83) (1984)

16.  Arkansas:  15-13 (78) (1994)

17.  Houston:  14-9 (65)

18.  U.N.L.V.:  11-9 (60) (1990)

19.  Virginia:  12-9 (60) (2019)

20.  Maryland:  7-12 (51) (2002)

And here are the four winningest programs of all time:

1.  Kentucky:  2,422-770 (.759)

2.  Kansas:  2,414-909 (.726)

3.  N. Carolina:  2,395-874 (.733)

4.  Duke:  2,335-933 (.715)

And that closes the book on the 2024-25 NCAA Basketball Season.

Going Out with a Bang

In April 2019, Virginia defeated Texas Tech in overtime to win the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament -- and then Tiger Woods shocked the world by winning the Masters.  Less than a year later, of course, the world was shut down for COVID, and we haven't really seen that type of excitement since then.  But this week, we had even more drama:  Florida and Houston played an NCAA Final for the ages, and Rory McIlroy just won one of the most stirring Masters Tournaments ever played.  I was traveling most of the week and didn't get to liveblog these events, but I have them in the theater of the mind, and we will likely write more about them as the year rolls on.

As I've previously written, the Masters marks a significant break in the Sports Year.  Next weekend will be the first since August where we don't have an NFL game, college basketball, or major golf tournament to watch.  We still have a few events to wrap up in May and June before we really end the sports year, but the flip scoreboard, the mini helmets, and the brackets have all been put away, and it's time to start going outside again.  But as we head to the lake, the used bookstore, or wherever you go on Saturdays when there aren't sports to watch, we have an amazing collection of memories to consider.

I told myself that if sports came back after COVID, I would watch more and complain less, and I've mostly stuck to that vow.  This year, more than any in a long time, I really had fun watching sports.  And I'm already looking forward to next month's P.G.A. Tournament.