Pope Watch

With six games left in the season, here's how UK compares to its usual rivals (along with a few other teams of interest) in the KenPom rankings:

2.  Duke:  23-2

6.  Florida:  19-6 (beat UK 92-83 in Gainesville)

12.  Vanderbilt:  21-4 (beat UK 80-55 in Nashville)

14.  Louisville:  19-6 (beat UK 96-88 in Louisville)

15.  Kansas:  19-6

17.  Arkansas:  19-6 (lost to UK 85-77 in Fayetteville)

18.  Alabama:  18-7 (beat UK 89-74 in Tuscaloosa)

19.  Tennessee:  18-7 (lost to UK twice:  80-78 in Knoxville; 74-71 in Lexington)

21.  St. John's:  20-5 (lost to UK 78-66 in Atlanta)

22.  Brigham Young:  19-6

27.  Kentucky:  17-8 (has a record of 5-5 against the teams on this list)

28.  N. Carolina:  20-5 (beat UK 67-64 in Lexington)

36.  Indiana:  17-9 (lost to UK 72-60 in Lexington)

42.  U.C.L.A.:  17-8

Here's Kentucky's record through 25 games in each of the last five seasons:

2022:  10-2 in the SEC; 21-4 overall; 3 on Ken Pom (lost in first round of NCAAs)

2023:  7-5 in the SEC; 16-9 overall; 44 on Ken Pom (lost in second round)

2024:  8-4 in the SEC; 18-7 overall; 22 on Ken Pom (lost in first round)

2025:  6-6 in the SEC; 17-8 overall; 18 on Ken Pom (lost in regional semifinals)

2026:  8-4 in the SEC; 17-8 overall; 27 on Ken Pom

The 2022 team was the last UK team to reach the semifinals of the SEC tournament; the Cats have been eliminated in the quarterfinals of the SEC in each of the last three seasons.

Belmont Owns Murray State

We don't write as much about the Murray State men's basketball team as we used to, and that's because the team isn't as good as it used to be.  Here are the last six games between Murray State and its former rival, Belmont (home team listed first):

02/07/24:  Belmont 69 - 64 Murray St.

02/28/24:  Murray St. 61 - 83 Belmont

01/25/25:  Murray St. 77 - 95 Belmont

03/02/25:  Belmont 70 - 60 Murray St.

01/31/26:  Belmont 103 - 86 Murray St.

02/15/26:  Murray St. 70 - 87 Belmont

Today's game was particularly painful.  The Racers were up 39-24 at the half, on their home court.  And then Belmont blitzed them 63-31 in the second half.  Just humiliating.  That's like a 1996 UK half.

In mid-January, the Racers were 16-3 overall, and 8-0 in the Valley -- but that's all over now.  Murray State has now lost six of its last nine games.  This loss drops Murray State to 11-6 in the Missouri Valley and effectively kills any chance the Racers had of winning the regular season title.  Meanwhile, Belmont moves to 14-3 in the Valley.

On the other hand, Murray State did reach the College World Series last year, which is my favorite thing the Racers have ever done.

Pope Update

UK goes to Florida and loses 92 to 83.  Florida's easy win reflected the difference in quality between the two teams -- Ken Pom thought UK would lose by 11.  So the Cats stay at 27 in his rankings, and the Classic SEC rankings now look like this:

6.  Florida:  19-6

12.  Vanderbilt:  21-4

18.  Alabama:  18-7

19.  Tennessee:  18-7

27.  Kentucky:  17-8

33.  Auburn:  14-11

43.  Georgia:  17-8

55.  Louisiana St:  14-11

80.  Mississippi:  11-14

86.  Mississippi St:  12-13

Here's what UK has left (games where they are favored in bold):

02/17:  GEORGIA (72 percent chance of winning)

02/21:  at Auburn (39 percent chance)

02/24:  at South Carolina (73 percent chance)

02/28:  VANDERBILT (47 percent chance)

03/03:  at Texas A & M (45 percent chance)

03/07:  FLORIDA (35 percent chance)

Ken Pom thinks they will finish 11-7 in the SEC, and 20-11 overall.

Seven Games Left

The byes are done, and all SEC men's basketball teams have now played eleven games.  With seven games left, here are the standings:

Florida:  9-2 {point differential in SEC games of +176}

Arkansas:  8-3 {+90}

Kentucky:  8-3 {+23}

Vanderbilt:  7-4 {+51}

Texas A & M:  7-4 {+46}

Alabama:  7-4 {+45}

Tennessee:  7-4 {+21}

Missouri:  7-4 {0}

Texas:  6-5 {+38}

Auburn:  5-6 {+17}

Georgia:  5-6 {-36}

Mississippi:  3-8 {-85}

Mississippi St:  3-8 {-90}

Oklahoma:  2-9 {-68}

Louisiana St:  2-9 {-89}

S. Carolina:  2-9 {-139}

As you can see from the point differential numbers above, Florida is far and away the best team in the SEC.  The Gators went to Georgia last night and crushed the Bulldogs 86 to 66.  On Saturday, they host Kentucky.  Ken Pomeroy thinks that Florida will win 81 to 70, and I would not be surprised if the margin were much bigger.  Pomeroy thinks Florida will finish 15-3 in the SEC.

However, once you get beyond Florida, there is a block of teams who are pretty close in terms of quality.  Here's how Pomeroy breaks them down:

Teams that will finish 12-6 in the SEC:  Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Tennessee

Teams that will finish 11-7:  Kentucky, Texas A & M

Teams that will finish 10-8:  Missouri

Teams that will finish 9-9:  Texas, Auburn, Georgia

For another perspective, here are the Classic SEC Rankings on Ken Pom:

5.  Florida:  18-6

13.  Vanderbilt:  20-4

16.  Alabama:  17-7

18.  Tennessee:  17-7

27.  Kentucky:  17-7

31.  Auburn:  14-10

40.  Georgia:  17-7

56.  Louisiana St:  14-10

72.  Mississippi:  11-13

88.  Mississippi St:  11-13

That would give us the following old-school SEC Tournament (seeds in parentheses):

(1) Florida v. (8) LSU or (9) Ole Miss

(4) Tennessee v. (5) Kentucky

(2) Vanderbilt v. (7) Georgia v. (10) Mississippi St.

(3) Alabama v. (6) Auburn

That would be an outstanding tournament.  I love those rivalry games in the quarterfinals.

Basketball on Tuesday in February

UK is on bye this week, as they prepare for a very difficult trip to Gainesville against the National Champions.  But the games continue.  Vanderbilt -- which has not recovered from the loss of Duke Miles -- is in Auburn to play the Tigers, who have not recovered from the loss of Bruce Pearl.  A Vandy loss will drop the Commodores to 6-5 in the SEC; an Auburn loss would drop the Tigers to 5-6.  Auburn's at home, and it's really hard to see them losing a must-win game at home.  But if you had told me in December, that after 11 games, Vandy would be two games behind UK, I would not have believed you.

For the record, Auburn v. Vandy is the top-rated game on Ken Pom for today.  The top four games tonight all tipped off at 6 P.M. Central:

Auburn v. Vanderbilt

Nebraska v. Purdue

Baylor v. B.Y.U.

Miami (Fla.) v. N. Carolina

UPDATE:  Here's how those games ended:

Auburn 76 - 84 Vanderbilt

Nebraska 77 - 80 Purdue (OT)

Baylor 94 - 99 B.Y.U.

Miami (Fla.) 75 - 66 N. Carolina

That's a huge win for the Dores, who bounce back from a disappointing loss at home to Oklahoma last Saturday.  Vandy is now 7-4 in the SEC and 20-4 overall.  Ken Pom says that Tyler Tanner is the best player in the SEC, and he looked like it tonight.

Oh, and here's the top of the medal count:

1.  Norway:  12 (6-2-4)

2.  Italy:  11 (2-2-7)

3.  Japan:  8 (2-2-4)

4.  United States:  7 (2-3-2)

T5.  Germany:  6 (3-2-1)

T5.  Sweden:  6 (3-2-1)

7.  Switzerland:  5 (3-1-1)

8.  Austria:  5 (2-3-0)

9.  France:  3 (1-2-0)

10.  Canada:  3 (0-1-2)