The draft is close at hand. Last year I looked back at the 2018 draft, this year we will be looking at the 2019 draft.
First let's at the teams who added the most value to their teams from the 2019 draft. On this front Oakland is the only team that gets an A. They added 152.51 points of value to their roster over the last five years from the players they drafted. You might be saying, wait that isn't possible. We all know the Gruden years in Oakland were defined by bad drafts. And this is true, but they got two players who have accounted for 89 of those 152.51 points, Maxx Crosby and Josh Jacobs. They got another 21 points of value from Hunter Renfrow. Crosby was a 4th round pick and Renfrow was a 5th round pick. That's great value for those guys. The problem is the Raiders had 3 first round picks in 2019. Jacobs was one of their first round picks, the other two were Clelin Ferrell and Jonathan Abram, they provided a total of 22 points of value to the Raiders and only a combined 33 points of value overall in the league. That's bad. With three first round picks and hitting on guys in the 4th and 5th round this should have been a 200 point draft for the Raiders. Still they were the only team to get at least 150 points out of their draft and thus an A.
This takes us to group two with the 49ers, Giants, Titans, Bucs, Cardinals, Bills, and Football Team. The Giants had 10 draft picks and like the Raiders had 3 in the first round. Yet they could only manage 137.36 points added to their team. The vast majority of their points came from Daniel Jones and Dexter Lawrence who contributed a combined 81 points. Again it's great to come out of the draft with two big time contributors, but when you have 3 first round picks and 10 picks overall you should do better. This was Dave Gettleman's second draft and would really be the one that was the beginning of the end for his time in New York. Washington may have had the oddest draft. They got a good grade from Bleacher Report A-, but only get a B here and a C on a per player basis because they also had 10 draft picks and two number ones. Almost all of the value they received was from three picks, Montez Sweat, Terry McLaurin, and Cole Holcomb. They account for 88 points of the total 106.05.
So what's interesting to me about this draft is the fact that the top rated teams really didn't do all that great. Yes they added value to give them a good grade, but not the kind of value that can actually change the path of your franchise which is what you are looking for when you have multiple first round picks.
There are three teams on the bottom here that we need to discuss because their grades from Bleacher Report were A's. New England had 10 picks and only managed to add 55.55 points to their team over these past 5 years with these picks. This would be the beginning of the end for Belichick. Brady would leave the next year and the Patriots would really stumble in part because of such a poor roster construction. Bleacher Report praised the pick of N'Keal Harry, Joejuan Williams, and Chase Winovich in the first 3 rounds. These players combined added a total of 19 points over 5 years for the Patriots and 21 points to the League. The Colts are another team who got an A score from Bleacher Report but on a per player bases get a D. With a total of 10 picks they only added 68.68 points to their team. Chris Ballard has gotten a lot of love over the years in Indianapolis, but I've always thought he's overrated and when you look at a failure of a draft where you had 10 picks it's not wonder they've been in limbo the last few years. The last team here is Cleveland. With high expectations and high post draft grades this class for Cleveland was a D over the last 5 years and was John Dorsey's last year with the Browns.
One draft I have to point out is Arizona. They had 11 picks and added Kyler Murray who has accounted for 57 points. The other 10 picks have accounted for a total of 55 points. So yes you get a B for drafting a starting quarterback, but this is also the kind of draft that will eventually cost a GM their job.
One guy who you would think had a good enough draft to keep his job was Tennessee GM, Jon Robinson. Back in 2019 everything was great. They were the only team to get over 20 points of value per pick in this draft. By 2022 Robinson would be fired, but at least in 2019 all was good with the Titans and this is the kin of draft you want to see your team have. They added solid contributors to defense and offense with players like Jeffery Simmons, AJ Brown, Nate Davis, and David Long. Maybe the problem is that Brown, Davis and Long are all now gone from Tennessee even though they were solid contributors while they were with the team.
Here are the grades I have. The first chart is the total points added for the team. The second is the per player average.
I enjoyed reading this, and I would love to see the formula for your points.
ReplyDeleteThe Pro Football Reference founder came up with "Approximate Value," which I also think is interesting.
I used their AV value and then add some value for where they were taken in the draft. If you were the hundredth player taken you would get +1 point of value added to your already existing score. So if you are a 5th round pick who had the same AV score as someone who was a 1st round pick, I'm giving you more draft value.
DeleteWord.
DeleteI think what I would premise this sort of statistic on would be coming up with some of minimum definition of success per play of any situation. For example, in a 0-0 game on the first play from scrimmage after kickoff, I would take a first stab that a four-yard gain would be the line between success for offense or success for defense. If the offense gets four yards, it has exceeded a third of the yards required to extend the possession with two downs to go before the emergency of fourth down. On second down, then, the offense needs to gain at least half of the remaining yards required for a first down; on third, it needs to achieve the first down. But then stuff would change depending on the score and time remaining, too--if you're down by two points with 1 second to play and the ball at the opponent's 11, even picking up nine yards on first-and-10 would not be considered a successful play ... that sort of thing.
ReplyDeleteIn Run To Daylight, Vince Lombardi explains their system for evaluating players. I don't remember all the details, but I do remember that they evaluated each player separately on every single play.
DeleteThis is validating!
DeleteOnce I had that all figured out, then I would give all 11 players on the successful side of the ball with a plus-1 point apiece and give all 11 players on the unsuccessful side of the ball with a minus-1 point apiece and add everything up over the course of a game.
ReplyDeleteBut then I'd probably disagree with myself in the sense that I'm not so sure that what most matters is having about seven absolutely competent players and then four stars who "make plays"--and that my system would over-reward the competent dudes who are playing alongside successful stars (or under-reward the competents whose successful stars happen to be high that day, etc.)
ReplyDeleteAnyway, this is the root of a whole season at least that I would watch of a non-comedic Seinfeld spinoff about the work of Kramer's intern, 'Darin!'.
ReplyDeleteAccording to this dude on Yahoo!, the Dolphins--drafting 21st last night--tied for the 17th-best grade of the first round. So ... huge win!
ReplyDeleteThat guy went for Drake Maye over Jayden Daniels. We'll see how that works out.
DeleteAlso according to Yahoo!, 28.24 percent of the Week 1 starters from NFL19 through NFL23 were selected in Round 1.
ReplyDelete— 18.98 percent came out of Round 2
— 14.8 percent from Round 3
— 12.19 percent were not drafted
— 10.31 percent from Round 4
— 7.47 percent from Round 5
— 4.80 percent from Round 6
— 3.21 percent from Round 7
If you think this is going to deter me from devouring Saturday’s Rounds 4-7 coverage, you’ve got another thing coming, Bub!
OK, I'm good on the draft. Let's get this NFL season rolling.
ReplyDeleteYahoo! guy ranks Dolphins T6 overall second in AFC East for the draft.
ReplyDelete