It really looks as though Morehead State is on pace to win the Classic OVC for the first time since 2011, and only the second time since 1999 (Ken Pom doesn't go back further than that):
117. Morehead St: 16-5
138. Murray St: 8-13
159. W. Kentucky: 14-6
179. E. Kentucky: 11-9
212. Austin Peay: 10-12
222. E. Tenn. St: 10-11
280. Mid. Tenn. St: 8-13
329. Tennessee Tech: 7-14
By the way, there are 362 teams on Ken Pom, and Murray State is ranked number 361 in luck. UK is up to 161 in luck. If UK finished at 161 in luck, that would be their best luck score since 2020 (138).
Anyway, tonight ESPN has a Classic Southwest Conference matchup. In Austin, Texas, the Texas Longhorns (14-6) are hosting the Number-4 Houston Cougars (18-2).
ReplyDeleteHouston is number 4 in the AP, but they are number 1 on Ken Pom. He has them beating Texas 70-62 in this game.
ReplyDeleteLast year, Houston went 33-4. They lost in the Sweet 16 to Miami of Florida 89 to 75, mainly because the Canes went 11-25 from 3-point range. The Canes then beat Texas 88 to 81 to reach the Final Four.
ReplyDeleteAfter 10 minutes, Houston leads 13-10.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, in West Paducah, the Carlisle County boys beat McCracken County 55 to 53. Eric Chumbler tweets that this is the Comets' first ever win over the Mustangs in Strawberry Hill Pharmacy Arena. The Mustangs fall to 17-6, while the Comets move to 15-6.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, in Madisonville (one night later), the home-standing Maroons got out to an early lead against the plucky Dawson Springs Panthers. Momentum shifted in the second quarter, however, and Madisonville-North had to come from behind to reclaim a two-point advantage before halftime.
DeleteThen the pep band roused the cross-county crowd with a tight medley of prep-basketball-gym favorites: "Our Boys," "Go Big M," "Crazy Train," "The 'Hey' Song" and "Gimme Some Lovin'" (which the Marching Maroon directors refer to strictly as "GSL," probably to keep the teen-agers from getting any big ideas). I'm sure the second half was a barnburner and that either North or Dawson Springs prevailed, but I can't say for sure because the chill flute girl I chauffeur cut out before the third quarter to wrap up some AP-chem studying and call it a night with some sleepytime I Want Watermelon.
Final Score: Madisonville-N. Hopkins 73, Dawson Springs 59. The Maroons are now 13-8 for the year, but riding a four game winning streak.
DeleteAt the half, Houston leads Texas 33-25. So far, the Cougs are just too big and too strong for Texas.
ReplyDeleteKelvin Sampson has built a powerhouse in Houston. Check out these records:
ReplyDelete2019: 33-4 (lost to Kentucky in Sweet 16)
2020: 23-8
2021: 28-4 (lost to Baylor in Final Four)
2022: 32-6 (lost to Villanova in Elite 8)
2023: 33-4 (lost to Miami (Fla.) in Sweet 16)
2024: 18-2
Personally, I think Indiana did the right thing by letting him go.
DeleteWho ever heard of a controversial coach at Indiana?
DeleteHouston has stopped scoring, and Texas has closed to within two points. The Cougars lead 44 to 42 with 11:41 left in the game. It's all about as exciting as it sounds.
ReplyDeleteTexas has come all the way back. With 10 minutes to go, the score is tied at 48.
ReplyDeleteTexas jumps out to a 54-48 lead and the Cougars are forced to call time with 8:20 left. So far, Texas has outscored Houston 29 to 14 in the second half.
ReplyDelete29 to 15
DeleteHouston hits back-to-back three's to tie the game at 54. Seven minutes left.
ReplyDeleteHouston makes another 3 to go up 57 to 54 with 6:23 left. That's a 9-0 run. Now Texas has to call time.
ReplyDeleteWith 3:54 left, Houston is clinging to a 59-58 lead. It will be Texas's ball after the TV timeout.
ReplyDeleteWith 2:29 left, Texas takes a 61 to 59 lead on a play where the Texas player accidentally hit a Houston player in the nose with an elbow. The Houston player collapsed, and the Texas player made an easy layup. If Kentucky did that, it would definitely be a Flagrant 1. But in Austin, we just keep playing.
ReplyDeleteWith 21.9 seconds left, and the score tied at 65, Houston calls time to set up the last shot.
ReplyDeleteWith 1.8 seconds left, Houston shoots a 3-pointer for the win -- because of course they do. It's an air ball.
ReplyDeleteSeveral of the guys whom I play with on Thursday nights at the church gym shoot 3s when their team needs only two points to win. It makes me angry, but, of course, I'm awful in other ways.
DeleteSo we are headed to overtime: 65 to 65.
ReplyDeleteWith 2:52 left in OT, Houston leads 66 to 65.
ReplyDeleteWith 2:29 left in OT, Houston still leads 66 to 65. Houston ball.
ReplyDeleteWith 2:10 left, Houston leads 68 to 65. Texas calls time.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, the Washington Wizards went to San Antonio and beat the Spurs 118 to 113. The Wiz are now 9-37. The Spurs are 10-37.
ReplyDeleteI had a dream the other night--I'm serious about this--in which I visited northern Virginia and saw this huge futuristic city that Ted Leonsis had manufactured and where the Wizards now played. It wasn't like the city was built around the Wizards; the city was so huge that the Wizards were just one of several attractions/activities available. In my dream, I gave credit in my head--the place really was nice. But the Wizards were still awful, and I said to myself--seriously, I said this to myself in the dream--"If Ted Leonsis thinks I'm going to pay attention right now and get all excited about the possibility of this team becoming good around a nucleus of Bilal Coulibaly and Jordan Poole, he's nuts."
DeleteTexas gets two FT's. Houston leads 68-67 with 2 minutes left. Houston ball.
ReplyDeleteHouston does that play where a guard just throws up a jump shot from the lane, it misses, and one of the big guys stuffs it. Houston leads 70-67.
ReplyDeleteBut then Texas does that play where the guard drives, draws the foul, and scores. The old-fashioned three-point play ties the game at 70.
ReplyDeleteHouston misses, gets the rebound, works the ball inside, and scores. Cougs lead 72 to 70 with 32.8 seconds left. Texas calls time.
ReplyDeleteNow usually, I'd go for two here to keep the game alive. But if I were Texas, I'd be tempted to shoot a three for the win. I'm not sure five more minutes will help Texas.
ReplyDeleteWell, Texas pretty much did everything wrong. They clearly wanted a 3-pointer for the win. But Houston anticipated that, and they were overplaying everyone out beyond the 3-point line. So Texas did that play UK kept trying against South Carolina, where a guard drives in against the whole front line for the other team. It went very badly, and Houston got the ball and was fouled.
ReplyDeleteHouston prevails, 76 to 72 in overtime. Great win by the Cougs in a very difficult environment.
ReplyDeleteI like shortening "Cougars" to "Cougs." One of our dog's best friends is a beagle who lives next door; its name is "Beagle," but I typically shorten it to "Beag."
ReplyDeleteKentucky never plays at full strength. Tonight, against Florida at home, both Wagner and Edwards are out.
ReplyDeleteHere's Kentucky's starting lineup:
ReplyDeleteG: Reed Sheppard, 6' 3" freshman from London, Ky.
G: Antonio Reeves, 6' 6" fifth year from Chicago
G: Adou Thiero, 6' 8" sophomore from Pittsburgh
F: Tre Mitchell, 6' 9" grad student from Pittsburgh
F: Ugonna Onyenso, 7' 0" sophomore from Nigeria
Here's Kentucky's "luck" scores since Cal arrived:
ReplyDelete2010: 43 (thank you John Wall)
2011: 184
2012: 86 (thank you Anthony Davis)
2013: 194
2014: 240
2015: 68 (thank you Karl-Anthony Towns)
2016: 288
2017: 175
2018: 199
2019: 98
2020: 138
2021: 354
2022: 279
2023: 239
2024: 228
Over 15 years, that's an average of 187.5. Over the last four years, it's an average of 220. That's a lot of close losses.
DeleteTo be fair to Cal, that 15-year average of 187.5 puts you right in the middle of the pack. It is the sort of result you would expect from "luck" if it all has enough time to even out. Under this interpretation, UK was very lucky between 2010 and 2015, and in recent years that luck has evened out.
DeleteOf course, under a different interpretation, UK used to have enough talent to win close games, and now it doesn't.
DeleteThat's a record of 16-11, which presumably means we have more overtime losses coming to even things out. The Cats were also eliminated from the NCAA's in OT in both 2019 and 2022.
ReplyDeleteHere's the overall Ken Pom rating:
ReplyDelete2010: 4
2011: 7
2012: 1
2013: 55
2014: 13
2015: 1
2016: 6
2017: 4
2018: 17
2019: 8
2020: 29
2021: 49
2022: 6
2023: 27
2024: 23
Between 2010 and 2019, he coached 10 teams. Two finished number 1, seven finished in the top 10, and nine finished in the top 20.
ReplyDeleteSince 2019, he has coached five teams. Only one finished in the top 10, and only one finished in the top 20, and that team lost to St. Peter's in the first round.
ReplyDeleteThe truth is that Ken Pom has it right. This team is unlucky, but it's also not a serious contender for the SEC title, much less the Final Four. He knew this after the Wilmington game, when he dropped UK from 12 down to 22. Now we all know it.
ReplyDeleteTo be fair to me, I always trust Ken Pom, but I was hoping the Cats would be better once everyone came back. But apparently they aren't playing with a complete team at any point this year.
DeleteThe only optimistic point I can make is that UK is still 15-3 in games with D.J. Wagner, and that their luck may turn. On the other hand, Tennessee is coming to town on Saturday night, and most of the team could be in the hospital after that.
DeleteK-Pom has the Cats finishing 21-10 overall and 11-7 in the SEC. He puts them as the underdog against Tennessee (home and away), Auburn (away), Alabama (home), and Mississippi State (away). If they lose all those games, the best they can do is 10-8 in the SEC, so he thinks there's a chance they pull an upset.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, if they go 21-10 overall and 11-7 in the SEC, and are the 23d best team in the country, you're probably looking at another second round exit in the NCAA's, which would mean a fifth consecutive season without going to the Sweet 16. That's really awful.
ReplyDeleteK-Pom has Tennessee winning in Rupp tomorrow night, 80 to 78. I can't think of anything that will frustrate the UK fan base like another close loss at home.
ReplyDeleteTommorrow is a great day for college hoops. Check out this lineup (with AP rankings and time of game based on Central time) (home teams listed first):
ReplyDelete11 A.M: St. John's v. (1) Connecticut (FOX)
3 P.M: (8) Kansas v. (4) Houston (ESPN)
5:30 P.M: (3) N. Carolina v. (7) Duke (ESPN)
7 P.M: (18) Baylor v. (12) Iowa St. (ESPN2)
7:30 P.M: (10) Kentucky v. (5) Tennessee (ESPN)
I'm going to watch. I won't let UK's troubles prevent me from enjoying college basketball, which is my favorite of all sports.
Good for you, GoHeath!
ReplyDeleteI'm going rollerskating.
ReplyDeleteTennessee absolutely humiliates UK at Rupp. Since their win over North Carolina, the Cats have simply fallen apart. It's a very sad story, but we should be used to it by now.
ReplyDeleteThe gap between UK basketball and UT basketball now appears to be at least as great as the gap between UK football and UT football. As long as these two coaches stay at their jobs, Kentucky basketball fans will have to get used to hearing a lot of "Rocky Top."
ReplyDeleteAnd the Cats still have to go to Knoxville. Plus they have to go to Auburn. Plus they have to play Gonzaga and Alabama at home. Oh, and they have to go to Mississippi State. If they lose all those games, the best they could finish is 20-11 overall, and 10-8 in the SEC. And even that would require them to win at LSU. They are now in real danger of missing the tournament.
ReplyDeleteKentucky needs a coach who can field a complete team from the day the season begins until the day the team is eliminated from the tournament. Cal hasn't been able to do that since 2019.
ReplyDeleteI want to be very clear: there's no point in calling the Big Blue Line about this game. There was no strategy that would have worked. It wasn't a question of playing harder. The refs had nothing to do with it. Tennessee is much, much better than Kentucky. They would beat Kentucky anywhere at any time. With 31 seconds left, the Cats are shooting 12-26 (46.2 percent) from 3-point range. Rob Dillingham (my favorite Cat) has 35 points. Kentucky literally can't play better than this. And at no point in the game has Tennessee been in any real danger.
ReplyDeleteCal's system has been thoroughly mastered and beaten by the rest of the college basketball world. The future belongs to teams like Tennessee -- big, physical teams who have a lot of experience, play defense, and shoot threes. That's the future. That's how Connecticut plays. And Houston. And Kansas. And anyone who is serious about going to the Final Four.
ReplyDeleteCal made a breakthrough with the one-and-dones at Memphis, and he rode that insight to a National Championship and three appearances in the National Title Game. If he had been a better game coach, he would have won three national championships. It was a brilliant insight, and for it he deserves all the fame and money he has gotten. But that era is over, and Kentucky has to move into the future.
ReplyDeleteEver since Kentucky forced out Adolph Rupp at the end of the 1971-72 season, the Cats have stayed on top by not being too sentimental. For a school like Kentucky, with no natural advantages other than its tradition, you have to be ruthless and you have to demand results. Otherwise you will end up like other great programs of the past, such as North Carolina State and Indiana. They have great histories. They have rabid fans. They have wonderful traditions. But they weren't able to maintain the pace.
ReplyDeleteKentucky hasn't won a National Title since 2012, they haven't been to the Final Four since 2015, and they haven't been to the Sweet 16 since 2019. None of those streaks is going to end this year. My guess is that Cal has seen his last Final Four as a coach. I don't know how long it will take for Kentucky to get back to the Final Four, but I'm now certain that it will not happen until we have a new coach.
ReplyDeleteNone of this is to blame Cal. Father Time comes for everyone, and I don't blame him if he doesn't want to adjust to the new game. He is one of the greatest coaches I've ever seen, and even with this depleted lineup he's probably got enough skill to get them a 20-win season. But it's a mistake to wait too long. Arkansas waited too long with Nolan Richardson. Georgetown waited too long with John Thompson. Maryland waited too long with Gary Williams. In other two or three seasons, Kentucky will just be a mid-level program in the SEC -- well behind schools like Tennessee, Texas, Alabama, and Auburn. And once you fall to that level, it's very difficult to come back. Just ask the Indiana fans.
ReplyDelete