Monday, April 3, 2023

Putting Away the Scoreboard

In my office, I have a small flip scoreboard -- one of those where you flip the numbers to tell the score.  It's very simple -- it just shows scores for "HOME" and "GUEST" with a small number in the middle that tells you the period.  Starting on Labor Day weekend, I keep it close by for use while I'm watching games.  Since last September, I've flipped through college football season, pro football season, high school basketball, and college basketball.

It all ends tonight.  Connecticut will play San Diego State for the National Championship of men's college basketball, and then we will put the scoreboard away until next September.  It's time to spend less time watching others and more time going outside myself.

K-Pom has UConn winning this game 69-64, although I think most folks would be surprised if it's that close.  Vegas has UConn as 7 1/2 point favorites with an over-under of 132 1/2, which would work out to something like UConn winning by 70-62.

We'll see.  Here's what UConn has done so far in the Tournament:

03/17:  Connecticut 87 - 63 Iona
03/19:  Connecticut 70 - 55 Saint Mary's
03/23:  Connecticut 88 - 65 Arkansas
03/25:  Gonzaga 54 - 82 Connecticut
04/01:  Connecticut 72 - 59 Miami (Fla.)

That's five easy wins in a row, which is a good sign for tonight.  I can see only two clouds on the horizon for the Huskies.  The first is that they have been hot from three-point range.  In the five games above, they went 50-124 from three-point range.  That's a shooting percentage of 40.3 percent, compared to their record of 36.3 percent for the year.  They have yet to go ice cold from the outside.  If they do, they will find themselves in a very different game.

And teams can go ice cold in the tournament, especially when they play San Diego State.  Here's how the Aztecs got here:

03/16:  San Diego St. 63 - 57 Charleston
03/18:  San Diego St. 75 - 52 Furman
03/24:  Alabama 64 - 71 San Diego St.
03/26:  San Diego St. 57 - 56 Creighton
04/01:  San Diego St. 72 - 71 Fla. Atlantic

In these five games, SDSU's opponents went 25-116 from three-point range, for a percentage of only 21.6 percent.  That's not entirely luck -- for the season as a whole, the Aztecs' opponents made only 28.1 percent of their three-point shots.  If UConn doesn't make threes, then they will find it much harder to blow this game open.

Here's the second point.  In its last two games, UConn took on the nation's 73d best defense (Gonzaga) and its 99th best defense (Miami (Fla.))  Once UConn's excellent defense stopped the offenses for Gonzaga and Miami (Fla.), it was relatively easy for the Huskies to blow the game open.  But SDSU has the nation's fourth best defense, and they will very happy to go out there and bang around for a couple of hours.

One final point, which I'm not counting as a cloud but which could be significant -- depending on how much you trust analytics.  UConn has not done well in close games, which explains why the Huskies  are first in the country on Ken Pom, but 308th in "luck."  The Huskies played 18 games this season against Big East teams not named Georgetown or DePaul.  UConn went 10-8 in those games, and 20-0 in all other games.  In other words, the Huskies are much more comfortable playing against teams who aren't used to the Big East style of play.  By contrast, SDSU -- which plays the type of bruising style traditionally associated with the Big East -- is 47th in luck, and they have been devastating in close games.  Here are the scores of the last ten minutes of SDSU's last three games:

SDSU 27, Alabama 16
SDSU 18, Creighton 13
SDSU 18, Fla. Atlantic 11

So if SDSU can keep it close and crank up their defense down the stretch, they will like their chances.  UConn, on the other hand, may get frustrated.

Having said all of that, I expect UConn to have a pretty easy time of it tonight.  The Huskies are much better than SDSU, and I think the Aztecs' luck is due to run out. 

61 comments:

  1. For the record, I thought Alabama should have beaten SDSU, I thought Creighton should have beaten SDSU, and I thought FAU should have beaten SDSU. I watched all three games, and thought every time that SDSU's opponents played very poorly down the stretch. Alabama just completely fell apart, but even Creighton and FAU made major mistakes in the last few minutes.

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  2. Also, I was happy that LSU beat Iowa to win the women's title. But I have to admit that the Hawkeyes made a compelling run. That game yesterday -- featuring charismatic Juniors and Seniors, big personalities in the coaching blocks, and lots of controversy on both sides -- felt like the type of game that made men's college basketball such a big deal in the 1980's. The men's game hasn't had a player as good as Caitlyn Clark since Steph Curry, and he was stuck at Davidson. Kim Mulkey is more charismatic and controversial than any men's coach since Bobby Knight, and her team put up 102 points in the final -- looking very much like Jerry Tarkanian's old UNLV teams.

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  3. Oh, and this is the last game for Jim Nantz at the Final Four -- he says it's the last basketball game he'll ever call. Nantz has called every NCAA Final since 1991, when Duke won its first title by beating Kansas. That's five titles for Duke (91, 92, 01, 10, 15), four for UNC (93, 05, 09, 17), four for UConn (99, 04, 11, 14), and three for UK (96, 98, 12). He also called UK's appearances in the 97 and 14 finals. With Coach K and Roy Williams retiring in recent years, and Nantz leaving tonight, it certainly feels that a major chapter in the history of college basketball has come to an end.

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  4. Personally, I will miss Nantz. I think he's by far the best announcer of his generation.

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  5. Every year, I think they should start this game at 8:20 PM Eastern. And every year, they start at 9:20 PM Eastern.

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  6. Here are all the title games since 2013 (higher-seeded team first):

    04/08/13: Louisville 82 - 76 Michigan (Atlanta)
    04/07/14: Connecticut 60 - 54 Kentucky (Arlington, Tex.)
    04/06/15: Duke 68 - 63 Wisconsin (Indianapolis, Ind.)
    04/04/16: N. Carolina 74 - 77 Villanova (Houston)
    04/03/17: N. Carolina 71 - 65 Gonzaga (Glendale, Ariz.)
    04/02/18: Villanova 79 - 62 Michigan (San Antonio, Tex.)
    04/08/19: Virginia 85 - 77 Texas Tech (OT) (Minneapolis, Minn.)
    2020: NONE
    04/05/21: Gonzaga 70 - 86 Baylor (Indianapolis, Ind.)
    04/04/22: Kansas 72 - 69 N. Carolina (New Orleans)

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  7. Of those games, I though the ones in 2016, 2019, and 2022 were about as good as it gets. The others were fairly forgettable.

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  8. No team has scored 90 points in the final since 1990, when UNLV beat Duke 103-73. Before then, no one had done it since 1978, when UK beat Duke 94-88.

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  9. Nantz points out that UConn has never lost an NCAA final, and that no team from California has won the title since 1995.

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  10. So I usually watch sports with the sound off, but I'm rolling with Nantz, Grant Hill, and Raftery tonight.

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  11. ESPN gives UConn a 74.3 percent chance of victory.

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  12. CBS tells us that SDSU is the only team ever to win the Elite Eight game and the National Semi-Final by one point each. I had wondered about that.

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  13. Both teams come out hot. SDSU leads 10-8 with 15:47 left in the half. Now ESPN gives UConn a 66.1 percent chance of victory.

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  14. OK, now this game is going the way I expected. SDSU hasn't scored in over 5 minutes, and UConn leads 14-10 with 11 minutes left in the half. ESPN gives UConn an 80.5 percent chance of victory.

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  15. See, this is what I don't understand about Alabama. They had a good defense, and SDSU has a very weak offense. But after Alabama got up 48-39 with 11:40 left, they let the Aztecs score 32 points the rest of the way, which is absurd.

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  16. Down 20-12, and having missed its last 10 field goals, SDSU calls time with 8:50 left in the half. UConn now has a 85.8 percent chance of victory.

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  17. To be fair, SDSU hasn't been able to make shots against anyone. What they have done, game after game, is simply dominate their opponents around the basket. But UConn is no Creighton or FAU.

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  18. UConn up 22-12 with 7:32 left in the first half, and Jim Nantz should have a lot of time to tell stories in the second half.

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    1. I had this same thought at about the same point, and I was disappointed that Jim Nantz seemed so determined to not let himself be the focus of this broadcast.

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  19. How did Alabama lose to these guys? If Alabama had won that game -- as it should have -- the Tide certainly would have beaten Creighton and FAU, and by more than one point each.

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  20. This feels a lot like the UGA/TCU football championship.

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  21. For that matter, how did Creighton lose to this team? Creighton played UConn twice -- they lost 69-60 at UConn and won 56-53 in Omaha. That would have been a better game than this.

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  22. And Creighton should have beaten SDSU. The Blue Jays were up 41-34 with 13:14 left, and somehow let the Aztecs score 23 points the rest of the way.

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  23. I still think Creighton could have won in overtime, but they fouled Darrion Trammell on the last shot to throw the game away.

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  24. See, this is the type of defense Alabama needed to play. But they just weren't prepared for the intensity of the NCAA Tournament.

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  25. Well, this is over. UConn up 36-20 with 2:55 left in the first half. So UConn wins the National Championship by beating Iona, Saint Mary's, Arkansas, Gonzaga, Miami (Fla.), and San Diego State.

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  26. It sounds pretty easy -- and it was pretty easy. But Alabama could have reached the final by beating Texas A & M Corpus Christi, Maryland, San Diego State, Creighton, and Fla. Atlantic -- and they couldn't get it done.

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  27. Coach Dan Hurley of UConn, interviewed at the half, says that the Huskies should be up 20, and he's right. They're actually up 36-24.

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  28. Since 1999, UConn will have won as many National Titles (five) as Coach K won in his entire career. It also will have won as many titles as Bob Knight and Denny Crum put together, or as many as Roy Williams and Dean Smith won together.

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  29. I watched almost none of UConn's 2004 win over Georgia Tech; I knew that wouldn't be much of a game. And I watched almost none of the 2011 win over Butler; I knew that wouldn't be much of a game either. I watched the 2014 win over Kentucky, and by golly UK gave a better showing than we're getting here.

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  30. UConn leads 43-32 with 15:19 left. I've turned off Nantz and company and gone back to music, but I will keep watching until the Bill James formula says that the lead is safe.

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  31. Against Alabama and FAU, SDSU had a lot of success just throwing the ball up on the rim, and getting rebound after rebound until they scored. That's not working tonight. UConn leads 49-35 with 12:45 left.

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  32. It's been 31 years since the Hurleys were on top of the college basketball world, and I can honestly say that I didn't miss them.

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  33. With 12 minutes left, UConn leads 49-36. The real drama is whether SDSU will get to 50 points.

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  34. FAU got 21 free throws against SDSU. Creighton got 11. Alabama got 20. UConn already has 13, UConn is heading to the line, and there is still 11:56 left.

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    1. I don't think UConn is benefiting from a generous whistle. I thought a lot more fouls should have been called in the prior games.

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  35. It's possible that the lead will be safe by the time we get to the next TV timeout.

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  36. The Aztecs put together a 9-0 run to move to within 56-50. Now, for the first time in the whole tournament, UConn has a meaningful possession with less than 10 minutes left. Naturally, they score. But SDSU gets fouled at the other end, and the Aztecs will be going to the line with 6:58 left. UConn 58, SDSU 50.

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  37. UConn so far:
    15-31 from 2-point range (48.4 percent)
    5-15 from 3-point range (33.3 percent)
    13-15 from the line (86.7 percent)
    30 rebounds, 11 turnovers

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  38. SDSU so far:
    11-30 from 2-point range (36.7 percent)
    6-18 from 3-point range (33.3 percent)
    10-13 from the line (76.9 percent)
    30 rebounds, 11 turnovers

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  39. With 5:15 left, the Aztecs move to within 60-55, but UConn immediately hits a 3 to go up 63-55.

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  40. It's still 63-55 with 3:52 left. I have to give SDSU credit -- they really have fought all the way to the end. But UConn, unlike Alabama, has maintained its composure.

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  41. Down 8, SDSU comes out of the TV timeout and promptly misses the front end of the one-and-one. That should do it.

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  42. Of course, SDSU missed a bunch of FT's in their other games, but they got a lot of rebounds. That doesn't work against UConn.

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  43. I believe these teams could play 100 times on a neutral court, and UConn would win over 90 percent of the time. I'm not sure SDSU has a single player who could make UConn's team.

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  44. UConn makes two FT's, gets a stop, makes a layup, and they lead 67-55 with less than 3 minutes to go.

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  45. Amazingly, Bill James does not regard a 69-57 lead with 1:58 left as safe.

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  46. I think UConn just has to get through the next 30 seconds or so.

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  47. SDSU tries to press, so UConn gets an easy layup. They just have an answer for everything the Aztecs try.

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  48. CBS points out that there have been four different occasions tonight where SDSU went over 3 minutes without a field goal. But they've been playing like that all along. Their problem tonight was that they met a team that was big and strong, and that was not intimidated by SDSU's tactics.

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  49. Neither Creighton nor FAU had the strength to hold off SDSU down the stretch. Alabama had enough strength and skill, but simply fell apart. Only UConn had the answer.

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  50. Also, UConn has made 21-23 free throws. That's championship basketball.

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  51. With 30 seconds left, UConn is back at the line. Dan Hurley calls time and starts hugging all of his starters, who are coming out of the game. The celebration is on in Houston.

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  52. Since Duke won it all in 2010, the Big East has three championships from UConn, two from Villanova, and one from Louisville. They really are the best conference.

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  53. Final score: UConn 76, San Diego State 59. And the scoreboard has been stashed away until September.

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  54. Oh, here's how the regions played out:

    UConn beat Duke
    Miami (Fla.) beat Tennessee
    Creighton beat Maryland
    San Diego St. beat Princeton
    Gonzaga beat Marquette
    Arkansas beat Arizona
    Xavier beat Iona
    Texas beat Michigan St.
    UConn beat Miami (Fla.), 72 to 59
    San Diego St. beat Creighton, 57 to 56
    Gonzaga beat Arkansas
    Texas beat Xavier, 83 to 71
    UConn beat San Diego St. 76 to 59
    Texas beat Gonzaga 93 to 74
    UConn beat Texas for the title.

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  55. One final thing. This was the 48th tournament since I started rooting for UK back in 1975 (that figure includes the 1975 tournament). Recently, I did a calculation for all 48 tournaments. I gave teams 1 point for reaching the Sweet 16, 2 points for reaching the Elite 8, 4 points for reaching the Final Four, 8 points for reaching the Final, and 16 points for winning it all. So you can get 31 points if you win the whole tournament, or 15 if you come in second.

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    1. This comment is my favorite moment of the entire NCAA men's basketball tournament.

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  56. If you do that, here is the top 20, with their record in games from the Sweet 16 to the Final and their total points (I gave Louisville credit for its 2013 title):

    1. N. Carolina: 51-25 (286 points)
    2. Duke: 48-23 (282)
    3. Kentucky: 44-24 (236)
    4. Kansas: 35-21 (192)
    5. Connecticut: 27-11 (182)
    6. Louisville: 26-18 (149)
    7. UCLA: 25-21 (141)
    8. Michigan St: 26-17 (135)
    9. Indiana: 20-14 (133)
    10. Villanova: 21-10 (125)
    11. Michigan: 23-13 (122)
    12. Florida: 19-9 (105)
    13. Syracuse: 18-20 (101)
    14. Arizona: 18-18 (89)
    15. Georgetown: 16-10 (83)
    16. Arkansas: 15-12 (77)
    17. Virginia: 12-9 (60)
    18. UNLV: 11-9 (60)
    19. Maryland: 7-11 (50)
    20. Houston: 11-7 (49)

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  57. Now let's all go enjoy the Masters.

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