What if the NCAA ran its basketball tournament the same way as the KHSAA runs its tournament? 64 districts, 16 regions, and one Sweet 16 to decide the title. Last year's tournament would have looked like this (using Ken Pom ratings to pick regional champs, except for Loyola and UCLA):
First Round:
(14) Colorado over (5) N. Carolina
(10) Michigan over (8) Tennessee
(7) Arkansas over (11) Loyola of Chicago
(4) Virginia over (2) St. Bonaventure
(15) Gonzaga over (12) Creighton
(13) Baylor over (16) UCLA
(6) Alabama over (1) Connecticut
(9) Ohio St. over (3) Villanova
Quarter-Finals:
Michigan over Colorado
Arkansas over Virginia
Baylor over Gonzaga
Alabama over Ohio St.
Semi-Finals:
Michigan over Arkansas
Baylor over Alabama
Finals:
Baylor over Michigan
So that was last year. Based on Ken Pom's rankings, here are the favorites in each region this year:
1st Region: Connecticut (ranked 21st in Ken Pom)
2d Region: St. Bonaventure (30th)
3d Region: Villanova (9th)
4th Region: Maryland (18th)
5th Region: Duke (10th)
6th Region: Alabama (19th)
7th Region: Arkansas (15th)
8th Region: Tennessee (13th)
9th Region: Ohio St. (8th)
10th Region: Michigan (2d)
11th Region: Illinois (5th)
12th Region: Kansas (3d)
13th Region: Baylor (4th)
14th Region: Colorado (35th)
15th Region: Gonzaga (1st)
16th Region: UCLA (7th)
Here are the 8th Region teams in Ken Pom's top 100:
ReplyDelete13. Tennessee
16. Memphis
17. Kentucky
36. Louisville
77. Belmont
79. Vanderbilt
90. W. Kentucky
Should be a very dramatic tournament when the 8th Region tips off in Nashville next March.
Here's the breakdown in the old Sports Illustrated regions:
ReplyDeleteEast:
1. Villanova 2. Duke
Mideast:
1. Michigan 2. Illinois
Midwest:
1. Kansas 2. Baylor
West:
1. Gonzaga 2. UCLA
Here's UK's record in whatever the UK/Duke/Kansas/Michigan State event is called:
ReplyDelete11/15/11: Kentucky 75, Kansas 65
11/13/12: Duke 75, Kentucky 68
11/12/13: Michigan St. 78, Kentucky 74
11/18/14: Kentucky 72, Kansas 40
11/17/15: Kentucky 74, Duke 63
11/15/16: Kentucky 69, Michigan St. 48
11/14/17: Kansas 65, Kentucky 61
11/06/18: Duke 118, Kentucky 84
11/05/19: Kentucky 69, Michigan St. 62
12/01/20: Kansas 65, Kentucky 62
That's a total of 5-5.
For tonight, Pomeroy has Duke winning 75 to 74. That should be fun.
For the year, KenPom has UK going 11-7 in the SEC and 22-9 overall. He ranks them number-17 in the country.
ReplyDeleteThat feels right after watching last night's game.
DeleteAnd here we go: The first college basketball game of the year has tipped off! We have Alcorn State at Washington State. There hasn't been a full season of college basketball since 2018-19. Let's hope we make it this time.
ReplyDeleteI enjoyed the Ky/Duke/Kansas/Michigan State event much more when UK got to play two warm-up games to start the year. Having UK play Duke as its first game of the season is not pleasant on any level.
ReplyDeleteFor one thing, it creates a dynamic where Calipari just isn't that interested in winning the game, and so that's not fun for me to watch.
DeleteAfter last year, I'm ready to see UK win a few games in a row, not start off 0-1 with a loss to Duke.
DeleteSame--all of this.
DeleteVillanova looks good; they lead Mount St. Mary's 45-21 at the half. That's not easy to do.
ReplyDeleteVillanova up 84-47 with 4:12 left. It's so weird to watch college players shoot the ball and then have the ball go in the basket.
ReplyDeleteKentucky misses its first five shots to start the new season, and then misses one of its first two free throws. Here we go.
ReplyDeleteBy the way, if you didn't know this was Coach K's last year, you just have to watch ESPN for about 30 seconds.
ReplyDeleteI've been rooting against Coach K since I was 19. I'm now 55.
ReplyDeleteAt some point, I really should've learned to spell his name.
DeleteAt the first TV timeout, the Cats are 2-8 from 2-point range, 1-3 from three-point range, and 1-2 from the line. Fun!
ReplyDeleteIf I wanted to be a great basketball player, I would practice shooting. But apparently Kentucky finds the players who take the road less traveled.
ReplyDeleteIt's just a really hard game to play if you can't ever make a shot.
ReplyDeleteMurray State opens by beating Cumberland 109-77.
ReplyDeleteWestern opens with a 79-74 win over Alabama State.
ReplyDeleteI'm excited to see the really tall new guy.
DeleteActually, my goal for this game was to keep it closer than 118-84. Duke leads 23-20 with 7:53 left in the first half, so we're on a good pace so far.
ReplyDeleteWith 7:53 left in the first half, Cats are 5-19 from 2-point range, 3-6 from three-point range, and 1-2 from the line.
ReplyDeleteWith 3:54 left in the first half, Duke leads 29-25. Cats are 6-25 from 2-point range, 4-8 from 3-point range, and 1-2 from the line. The main reason it's not yet a blowout is that Kentucky has outrebounded Duke 21-17, and Duke is 0-4 from 3-point range and 5-9 from the line. If Duke starts making its three's, this could get ugly fast.
ReplyDeleteUK's two best players are Sahvir Wheeler, a point guard who transferred from Georgia, and Oscar Tshiebwe, a power forward who transferred from West Virginia. Of course, Tshiebwe had to leave the game with two fouls when there were about 7 1/2 minutes left in the first half, and Duke has been pulling away since that time. Devils now up 31-25.
ReplyDeleteAt the half, Duke leads 39-35. Cats are now 7-30 on 2-point shots, 6-10 on 3-point shots, and 3-4 from line. Devils are 12-19 on 2-point shots, 1-9 on 3-point shots, and 12-17 from line. Cats have outrebounded Duke 25-21. Back when Kentucky was good, we looked like Duke looks tonight in a lot of games against teams like Ole Miss and LSU. We would have the superior talent, and our two-point defense was impregnable, but the other team could hang around because we weren't making three's and they were getting rebounds. Eventually, we would usually pull away and win by about 12. That should be what happens for Duke here.
ReplyDeleteIt's interesting that Bilas clearly expected Duke to have a pretty easy time of it -- all of his commentary is about how amazing it is that the scrappy Cats are keeping it close. And you can see why. Duke has NBA-level talent, while UK appears to have pretty good SEC level talent.
ReplyDeleteBilas kept this angle all the way to the end. At no point did he suggest that UK's team was close to being as good as Duke's. Instead, he just kept giving Kentucky credit for playing hard. And he was right -- they did play hard, and they weren't that close.
DeleteCorrect.
DeleteAs soon as I heard how magnanimous Jay Bilas sounded, my optimism for the season took a big hit.
DeleteIf this Kentucky team scratches and claws like they are doing tonight, they should be able to finish in the top third of the SEC and go to the NCAA's. That would obviously be a huge improvement over last year. But if Kentucky's ever going back to the Final Four, they have to get guys who can do something with the ball, and they don't have that this year.
ReplyDeleteHaving said that, I think I'll enjoy watching Wheeler this year. He's the type of short, scrappy point guard who usually gives us lots of trouble in the SEC, and I like having a guy like that on the team.
ReplyDeleteI think Tshiebwe will be very popular with fans as well -- he's a big, hard-working guy who really battles on the glass and gets lots of rebounds. But in the SEC, he will spend a lot of time on the bench in foul trouble -- just as he has done tonight.
ReplyDeleteAnd, yes, Duke has 17 free throws to our 4. That's pretty much what I expect for most of Coach K's last year, but in this case the Cats haven't really helped themselves all that much -- they don't have anyone whose offensive skills are good enough to draw fouls from Duke, and they have struggled to defend the Blue Devils down low.
ReplyDeleteHere's the best way to summarize the first half: The Cats have outscored Duke by 15 points from three-point range, and they trail by four. That doesn't augur well for the second half, because I think the three-point shooting is going to even out. The two-point and foul-shooting, on the other hand, is not likely to even out.
ReplyDeleteDon't get me wrong -- it was very nice to see the Cats making three-point shots. They will need that this year, because none of their guys look like they can score in the lane.
ReplyDeleteAnyway, I think the ceiling for this team would be something like the team they had in 2020 -- a scrappy, smart team that grinds out enough wins to do well in the SEC, and ends up with a 3 or 4 seed in the NCAA's. On the other hand, they'll play a lot of close games, and if their luck is bad they could go something like 10-8 in the SEC.
ReplyDeleteFor what it's worth, I really liked the 2020 team -- and I could end up liking this one as well. But these next 20 minutes will not be pleasant.
DeleteAfter tonight, UK will be 2-9 against Coach K. I really hope we don't ever have to play him again.
ReplyDeleteUK comes out hot and scores 13 points less than 5 minutes. But Duke scores 12, and the Devils lead 51-48 with 15:26 left.
ReplyDeleteIt's hard to tell how good Duke really is. They are clearly on a different level from UK, but I don't know if they're ready for the Gonzaga's and Kansas's of the world.
ReplyDeleteOf course, Duke is only 1-11 from three-point range, while UK is 7-12. That's the only reason it's close. And that won't happen to Duke very often.
DeleteUK calls time with 15:27 left. Comes out and immediately dribbles the ball out of bounds. Now we have a TV timeout with 15:18 left. Turnovers now starting to pile up for the Cats -- they have 9 and Duke has 6.
ReplyDeleteUVA opens at home with a 66-58 loss to Navy. So the Wahoos have some work to do.
ReplyDeleteThe AP poll had Duke at 9 and UK at 10, and that's clearly wrong. A game between the 9 and 10 teams should be a toss-up, and I don't think UK could beat Duke more than once in 10 tries.
ReplyDeleteKen Pom has Duke at 9 and UK at 17, and that's closer, but K-Pom thought it would be 75-74, and it won't be nearly that close. Duke now up 55-48, and Tshiebwe is already back on the bench with a third foul.
ReplyDeleteObviously part of the story here was that people thought TyTy Washington would play well for UK. He's been horrible: 2-10 from 2-point range, and 0-3 from 3-point range. Duke now up 59-50 with 13:04 left, and this is pretty much over.
ReplyDeleteWith 13:04 left, the Cats are 12-41 from 2-point range, 7-13 from 3-point range, and 5-6 from the line. Devils are 22-33 from 2-point range, 1-11 from 3-point range, and 12-18 from the line.
ReplyDeleteDuke up 61-52 with 11:52 left. I would guess that Duke is something like 9 or 10 in the country, and UK is probably somewhere in the 40's. If UK hadn't been hot from the outside, and Duke hadn't been cold, the Cats would be down by 20 right now.
ReplyDeleteI think we basically have to see this as a rebuilding year after last season's debacle. If we could somehow scrap our way to a good position in the SEC and couple of wins in the NCAA's, that would be impressive. And then hopefully we get better players next year and we can be truly competitive again.
ReplyDeleteOK, I'll go with that.
DeleteI've never heard of Trevor Keels, who plays for Duke, but he is significantly better than anyone UK can put on the floor.
ReplyDeleteAnd Bilas was right -- UK was doing well to keep it close, but now reality is setting in and the Cats are falling apart. Duke up 65-52 with 11 minutes left.
ReplyDeleteTo be fair, there's just not that much UK can do -- none of their guys can do anything within 15 feet of the basket, while Duke can pretty much take the ball wherever they want to go. It really is like watching a strong UK team toy with Ole Miss.
ReplyDeleteThink about it: Duke has guys who are going to the NBA, and the Cats' two best players are guys who were recruited by Georgia and West Virginia.
ReplyDeleteDuke up 69-58 with 8:25 left. Hopefully, Coach K will remember that he ran up the score on us in 2018, and ended up missing out on the Final Four. He should take it easy, and only beat us by about 10 or so. That's better luck. But at this point he can pretty much name the score.
ReplyDeleteOnce again, I am staggered by how bad the experts are at valuing these teams. I don't see how anyone can look at Duke's players, and look at UK's players, and think that these teams are competitive. And to be fair to Bilas, he didn't think UK would be competitive. And he was right.
ReplyDeleteDuke eased up, and the Cats went on an 11-0 run to make it 69-65. But then Duke got serious again, and the Devils lead 74-65 with 4:14 left.
ReplyDeleteMike Krzyzewski (copied and pasted the spelling from Google) said after the game how happy he was that his team got tough again after UK made its run. I would be interested to know how hands on/off he was during this time. Coaches do that "you figure it out" approach with their teams some time, and it's disheartening that Krzyzewski (still in my computer's clipboard) might've felt freedom to do that against UK.
DeleteSo I'm looking at a rating service that had TyTy Washington ranked as the 15th best recruit in his class, and had Trevor Keels number 23. Here's what they've done tonight:
ReplyDeleteWashington: 3-12 from 2-point range, 0-2 from 3-point range, 3-4 from the line. 9 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists.
Keels: 9-13 from 2-point range, 1-4 from 3-point range, 4-6 from the line. 25 points, 1 rebound, 2 assists.
How could anyone have looked at these players and thought Washington was even close to being as good as Keels?
We have Derrick Hord coming in next year.
DeleteI had Derrick Hord flashbacks all night.
DeleteIf you ever made a movie about my life as a fan, it would have flashback scenes showing that I was affected by Derrick Hord in much the same way that Billy Beane was affected by his experience being scouted in "Moneyball." I have not trusted any rating, from any recruiting agency, since Derrick Hord.
DeleteDuke takes its foot off the gas, as I expected, and rolls to an easy 79-71 win. But don't be fooled, the Cats were not competitive.
ReplyDeleteDuke's guys were also cramping for most of the second half, which probably limited the margin here. But Duke scored on every possession where it really needed to score, and the Cats didn't score on a single possession where Duke was really determined to stop them.
DeleteTschiebwe finished with 17 points and 19 rebounds. He was really good.
ReplyDeleteWheeler finished with 16 points, 10 assists and 7 turnovers. He was a bit out of control at times, but his biggest problem was that except for Tschiebwe, he had no one to pass to.
Washington goes 3-12 from 2-point range, and 0-2 from 3-point range. He had 9 points and was really poor.
ReplyDeleteKeion Brooks was 3-7 from 2-point range, and 1-3 from 3 points range, He had 9 points in 17 minutes, and apparently that's about as good as he's ever going to be.
Mintz was 1-4 from 2-point range, and 1-3 from 3-point range, and he had 5 points in 21 minutes, and that's probably about as good as he will be.
ReplyDeleteKellen Grady, a shooting guard who transferred from Davidson, was 0-1 from 2-point range and 3-7 from 3-point range, and finished with 9 points. His three-point shooting kept UK in the game for awhile, but Cal never knows what to do with guys who are good three-point shooters but not elite defenders. See Juzang, Johnny; and Wiltjer. Doron Lamb is the only one of these guys who could get significant playing time, and I would love to know why. Maybe he was better on defense. Anyway, my guess is that Grady won't get that much playing time, and a lot of fans will complain about that. Maybe he'll get hot in Knoxville, like Juzang did back in 2020.
Just to be clear, I didn't see any coaching moves or additional effort that would have made a difference. No matter what UK did, Duke is significantly better than they are.
DeleteKentucky's next seven games are all at home. The Cats will play Robert Morris, Mount St. Mary's, Ohio, Albany, North Florida, Central Michigan, and Southern. It's possible that Wheeler and Tschiebwe will be enough to get them past all of those teams, and these games will give Cal a chance to figure out what's up with Washington. But they're going to lose at Notre Dame on December 11, and they're going to lose against Ohio State on December 18. That should knock them out of the top 20, and then we'll see if they can fight their way back in.
ReplyDeleteIt really looks like the whole season comes down to Washington. If he's really one of the top recruits in the nation, then the Cats could pull together and be tough down the stretch. But if he's what we saw tonight, UK will probably be a bubble team: Wheeler and Tschiebwe aren't enough to win road games in the SEC.
ReplyDeleteFinal stats: UK went 22-59 from 2-point range, 7-18 from 3-point range, and 6-7 from the line. Duke went 30-49 from 2-point range, 1-12 from 3-point range, and 16-23 from the line. So the Cats outscored Duke by 18 points from 3-point range and still lost by eight.
DeleteBecause of their hard work, the Cats out-rebounded Duke 47-39. UK had 15 assists and 13 turnovers. Duke had 7 assists and 9 turnovers. But Duke's guys could beat their defenders and score (or get fouled) pretty much anytime they needed to. UK could not do that at the other end.
DeleteMy guess is that this will be a season much like the one we had in 2018 -- a lot of close, hard losses due to our lack of star players, but improvement over the year and a decent chance of making the Sweet 16, mainly because our guys play so hard. UK fans won't be happy, and Cal will be under a lot of pressure to field a top-10 team in 2022-23.
ReplyDeleteI'm too old to spend a lot of time on a team like this, so I probably won't be commenting on the Cats very much this season.
DeleteAnd I don't actively dislike this team like I did last year's team. These guys at least appear to be SEC-level players. Last year's team looked like a bad year for Vandy. I just feel bad for these guys because I know they're going to have an unpleasant year. UK fans haven't seen the Cats win an NCAA Tournament game since 2019, and it's iffy whether that will happen this year. Furthermore, Kansas will pass us for the all-time wins lead, and that was something that Cal was supposed to prevent. And all the Coach K hype will be dreadful.
DeleteI was surprised to hear the most-wins thing was still in the UK Radio Network's opening theme/jingle/whatever before they go to Tom Leach for kickoff. I could've seen them staying away from specifics so that they wouldn't potentially need to switch at some point during this season.
DeleteOne final comment: I think Eric will like this team a lot.
ReplyDeleteI will like them because that's how I root, but I will say that this is your diciest projection in this entire post.
ReplyDeleteAll-Time Records in the Champions' Classic:
ReplyDeleteDuke: 7-4
Kansas: 6-5
Kentucky: 5-6
Michigan St: 4-7
Cats have now lost four of their last five Champions' Classic matchups.
Wait until we get to the Ohio State game, and we talk about UK's record in that Ohio State/UNC/UCLA series.
Ohio knocked UVA out of the tournament last year, and beat Belmont 92-80 last night. That will not be an easy game for the Cats.
ReplyDeleteThis Robert Morris game feels exactly what I want a pre-Thanksgiving game for UK to feel like. Very satisfying.
ReplyDelete100!
ReplyDeleteCats beat Robert Morris 100-60. First time that UK has scored 100 points in a game since November 26, 2017, when the Cats beat Illinois-Chicago 107-73. Oscar Tsheibwe had 20 rebounds for the second game in a row -- the first UK player to have 20 rebounds in back-to-back games since Mike Phillips in the 1975-76 season.
ReplyDeleteThe 20 rebounds is a Rupp Arena record.
ReplyDeleteCats go 28-57 from 2-point range, 12-23 from 3-point range, and 8-12 from the line. That's two good three-point shooting efforts in a row.
ReplyDeleteK-Pom had the Cats winning 83-59, their winning margin was 16 points better than that. The Cats had not won by 40 or more since November 8, 2019, when they beat Eastern Kentucky 91-49.
ReplyDelete