TUCFC: 2016 Week 14

Alabama successfully defended the TUCFC once again and now face Florida for the SEC championship. I'm hopeful that Alabama will win and we will get the TUCFC into the playoff this year. As for the rest of college football well let's see where things stand.

ACC
Clemson (11-1) vs Virginia Tech (9-3)

The complete collapse of Louisville down the stretch makes one wonder about the ACC.  Just how good are these teams.  Let's look at the teams in the top 32 by TUCFC Power Rating.

Clemson (3) has a good out of conference win over Auburn and Troy.  They struggled to beat Troy winning 30-24.  Their one loss is to Pittsburgh. 

Florida State (10) has a good out of conference win over Florida.  Their losses are to Louisville, North Carolina, and Clemson.  Between Florida State and Clemson the ACC went 4-0 against the SEC.

Louisville (18) has no good out of conference wins.  Their three losses are to Clemson, Houston, and Kentucky.

Virginia Tech (27) have no good out of conference wins.  Their three losses are to Tennessee, Syracuse, and Georgia Tech. 

Pittsburgh (29)  has a good win over Penn State, but then a loss to Oklahoma State both out of conference.  They also beat Clemson.  They also lost to North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Miami (Florida).

Assuming Clemson beats Virginia Tech for the ACC title I would assume they will be in the playoff.  The one team they lost to also beat Penn State, so that helps their cause.  Outside of Clemson no one really has a shot at the playoff.


AAC
Temple (9-3) vs Navy (9-2)

Navy is getting a lot of love from the playoff committee.  In the last ranking they sat at 25.  Houston sat at 20 and so the AAC had two teams in the top 25.  I would assume that Navy will hold but Houston will drop out after their loss to Memphis.  Still let's take a look at the top teams in the AAC.

South Florida (20) has no good out of conference wins.  Their two losses are to Florida State and Temple.  If not for the Temple loss they might be in the playoff polls top 25. 

Navy (24) has no good out of conference wins.  Their losses are to Air Force and South Florida. 

Houston (30) has good out of conference wins over Oklahoma and Louisville.  Their three losses are to Navy, SMU, and Memphis.  Houston more than any other team tells us that the mid-majors in 2016 should be taken seriously.  They can beat top level teams from the top level conferences, but can't get through their own conference. 

Tulsa (32) has no good out of conference wins.  Their losses are to Ohio State, Houston, and Navy. 

If Navy wins I'll be curious to see how high they end up  in the playoff rankings.  There is a lot riding on these for the smaller conferences it can have a big impact on what bowl they end up in. 


Big 12

As long as they have no conference championship the Big 12 will be left out of the playoff picture unless there is no question they have one of the top four teams. 

Oklahoma (12) has no good out of conference wins.  They lost to Houston and Ohio State.

West Virginia (23) has no good out of conference wins.  Their two losses are to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.

Oklahoma State (28) has a good win over Pittsburgh out of conference.  Their two losses are to Central Michigan and Baylor.  Though I will say the Central Michigan loss should have been reversed. 

Kansas State (41) has no good out of conference wins.  Their four losses are to Stanford, West Virginia, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State. 

What we get from the Big 12 is that either Oklahoma or Oklahoma State are the best team.  Outside of that there isn't a lot to say for the Big 12. 



Big 10
Wisconsin (10-2) vs Penn State (10-2)

Is there anything odder than the fact that neither Ohio State or Michigan are playing for the conference title?  It is assumed by many that if Wisconsin wins the Big 10 they will make the playoff along with Ohio State.  I don't know about that. 

Ohio State (2) has a good out of conference win over Oklahoma.  Their loss is to Penn State.

Michigan (4) has a good out of conference win over Colorado.  Their losses are to Iowa and Ohio State.  Michigan is probably the best team in the Big 10, but you got to win them.   

Wisconsin (7) has a good out of conference win over LSU.  Their two losses are to Michigan and Ohio State. 

Penn State (8) has no good out of conference wins.  They lost out of conference to Pittsburgh.  Their other loss is to Michigan. 

Iowa (13) has no good out of conference wins.  They lost to North Dakota State, Northwestern, Wisconsin, and Penn State.  Like Houston this team exemplifies where we are in the world of football.  They remind me of Pittsburgh in that they can beat any team in the country on any given Saturday, but could lose to any team as well. 

Nebraska (21) has no good out of conference wins.  Their three losses are to Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Iowa. 

The Big 10 is this year's SEC.  They have four teams in the top 10 and have faired well out of conference.  If any conference gets two teams into the playoff it's this conference.  If Penn State wins the conference I don't think they can be left out of the playoff but I also am not sure how you then pick Ohio State who they beat.  That will depend a lot on what happens in the other conference championships. 


Conference USA
Louisiana Tech (8-4) vs Western Kentucky (9-3)

With all the hype teams in the AAC, MAC, or Mountain West are getting, Conference USA isn't getting much love.  Let's look at why. 

Western Kentucky (37) has no good out of conference wins.  Their three losses are to Alabama, Vanderbilt, and Louisiana Tech.  They only lost to Vanderbilt by one and that loss has looked better and better as the year went by.  I also want to note here that when I talk about an out of conference win being good I'm talking about beating a team that is ranked currently in the TUCFC Power Ratings top 32. 

Old Dominion (47) has no good out of conference wins.  They have lost to Appalachian State, North Carolina State, and Western Kentucky. 

Louisiana Tech (68) has no good out of conference wins.  They almost beat Arkansas to open the season, but after Arkansas lost to Missouri that doesn't seem as impressive.  They lost to Arkansas, Texas Tech, Middle Tennessee State, and Southern Mississippi.

Middle Tennessee State (79) has no good out of conference wins.  They lost to Vanderbilt, Western Kentucky, Texas-San Antonio, and Marshall.

So what we see here is that none of these teams have good out of conference wins.  Unlike the AAC which has Houston winning those two games.  But that is all it takes for your entire conference to be viewed differently.


MAC
Western Michigan (12-0) vs Ohio (8-4)

For years the MAC has been thought of as one of the better mid major conferences.  This year the MAC doesn't seem as strong and that has hurt the perception of Western Michigan who I write about all the time.  Let's look at the MAC.

Western Michigan (6) has no good out of conference wins.  Northwestern currently sits ranked at 33 so they just miss that one.  In fact we can play the wonderful game we all love with this team.  They beat Northwestern, who beat Iowa, who beat Michigan, who beat Penn State, who beat Ohio State. 

Toledo (35) has no good out of conference wins.  They lost to BYU, Ohio, and Western Michigan.

Eastern Michigan (61) has no good out of conference wins, though it should be noted they beat Wyoming who will be playing for the Mountain West title.  They lost to Missouri, Toledo, Western Michigan, Miami (Ohio), and Northern Illinois.

Northern Illinois (70) has no good conference wins.  And in fact have seven losses, but they rank higher than Ohio who will be playing for the MAC championship with an 8-4 record.  How is this you ask?  Well let's look at their losses.  They lost to Wyoming, South Florida, San Diego State, Western Illinois, Western Michigan, Central Michigan, and Toledo.  Wyoming, San Diego State, and Western Michigan are all playing for their conference championships.  Central Michigan beat Oklahoma State and Toledo finished second in their division as did South Florida.  All in all they weren't as bad as their record would indicate.

Western Michigan is really hurt by the fact that the MAC is so down this year.  Northern Illinois is a great example. If they had beaten Wyoming, South Florida, and San Diego State that would give a big boost to the MAC and a team like Western Michigan, but not how it worked this year. 


Mountain West
San Diego State (9-3) vs Wyoming (8-4)

Because Boise State is Boise State the Mountain West gets more love than they should probably, but no matter they get it.  Let's look at their top teams. 

Boise State (25) has a good out of conference win over Washington State.  Didn't look  that good at the beginning of the year, but it turned out to be quite good.  They lost to Wyoming and Air Force.

Colorado State (51) has no good out of conference wins.  They lost to Colorado, Minnesota, Wyoming, Air Force, and San Diego State.

Air Force (53) has a good out of conference win over Navy.  They lost to Wyoming, New Mexico, and Hawaii. 

Wyoming (55) has no good out of conference wins.  They lost to Nebraska, Eastern Michigan, UNLV, and New Mexico. 

So two of their teams had good out of conference wins, that's pretty impressive.  If Boise State could have won the conference I think they would have made the Cotton Bowl.  As it is I'm not sure the Mountain West will be getting much love. 


Pac 12
Colorado (10-2) vs Washington (11-1)

As my dad said if USC and UCLA aren't leading the Pac 12 people on the East lose interest.  It has certainly hurt Washington this year.  As someone who ends up watching quite a bit of Pac 12 football, I will say it looks good on TV.  Not sure how that translates against other conferences though.

Washington (5) has no good out of conference wins.  They lost to USC.  Their out of conference schedule really hurts how they are perceived. 

Colorado (9) has no good out of conference wins.  They lost to Michigan and USC.  Yes that's right USC beat the top two teams in the Pac 12 but won't be playing for the championship. 

USC (11) has no good out of conference wins.  They lost to Alabama, Stanford, and Utah.  A rough start this team seems to be pretty good now.  But it's hard for people to forget a 52-6 beating to Alabama to start the season. 

Stanford (15) has no good out of conference wins.  They lost to Washington, Washington State, and Colorado. 

Washington State (19) has no good out of conference wins.  They lost to Eastern Washington, Boise State, Colorado, and Washington. 

The fact that none of these Pac 12 teams beat anyone good out of conference probably tells us all we need to know about the Pac 12.  Still I think if Washington wins the Pac 12 championship they will get into the playoff. 


SEC
Alabama 12-0 vs Florida (8-3)

I have a hard time getting a handle on the SEC.  They have been so good for so long, or at least Alabama has, that we tend to give them a pass.  Let's look at this season. 

Alabama (1) has a good out of conference win over USC.  It was the opening game, so who knows what that would look like now, but as I said before 52-6 win is a 52-6 win. 

LSU (14) has no good out of conference wins.  They lost to Wisconsin, Auburn, Alabama, and Florida. 

Florida (16) has no good out of conference wins.  They lost to Tennessee, Arkansas, and Florida State. 

Auburn (17) has no good out of conference wins.  They lost to Clemson, Texas A&M, Georgia, and Alabama. 

Tennessee (22) has one good out of conference win over Virginia Tech.  They lost to Texas A&M, Alabama, South Carolina, and Vanderbilt. 

Texas A&M (26) has no good out of conference wins.  They lost to Alabama, Mississippi State, Mississippi, and LSU. 

Looking over this it makes me think that Alabama really is the only good SEC team.  Even if they lost to Florida in the SEC championship I think they would get in, but who knows.  The SEC is pretty weak this year. 



Sun Belt

Similar to Conference USA the Sun Belt is basically ignored.  I think they are seen as the punching bag of the SEC.  Let's see how they've done. 

Troy (31) has no good out of conference wins.  They have lost to Clemson and Arkansas State.

Appalachian State (39) has no good out of conference wins.  They have lost to Tennessee, Miami (Florida), and Troy.

Idaho (48) has no good out of conference wins.  They have lost to Washington, Washington State, Troy, and Appalachian State. 

Arkansas State (75) has no good out of conference wins.  They have lost to Toledo, Auburn, Utah State, Central Arkansas, and Louisiana-Lafayette. 

Similar to Conference USA they have no big out of conference wins in this conference.  The Sun Belt next year gets Coastal Carolina so at least they will have a conference champion which will help get them into the mix a little bit. 


Games to Watch

Anything but the Big 12 or Sun Belt and you are watching a championship game. 



Week 14 Power Ratings

Ohio State, Michigan, and Florida State will all be hurt by not playing this weekend.  I'll be rooting for Western Michigan to finish 13-0.  I think it's interesting that if you ranked the teams simply by WP the top 5 would be Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Tennessee, and Florida State.  The WP as I've discussed before looks at who you've beaten and then who those teams have beaten.  Interesting to me that Tennessee and Florida State are in the top five. 

Rank	Team	Record	WP	WDiffP	LP	LDiffP	Power
1	Alabama	12-0	1,894.719	1,374.863	0.000	0.000	3,269.581
2	Ohio State	11-1	1,340.781	1,199.363	23.563	50.250	2,466.331
3	Clemson	11-1	1,483.188	1,107.963	78.031	149.000	2,364.119
4	Michigan	10-2	1,073.969	1,001.475	36.281	75.063	1,964.100
5	Washington	11-1	1,037.938	895.400	32.406	103.875	1,797.056
6	Western Michigan	12-0	846.406	788.663	0.000	0.000	1,635.069
7	Wisconsin	10-2	938.813	758.838	24.125	38.875	1,634.650
8	Penn State	10-2	1,034.656	877.400	92.094	200.875	1,619.088
9	Colorado	10-2	979.063	765.388	46.469	122.750	1,575.231
10	Florida State	9-3	1,139.250	817.875	177.594	391.250	1,388.281
11	Southern California	9-3	1,003.625	757.450	90.875	316.813	1,353.388
12	Oklahoma	9-2	738.094	709.163	62.906	185.500	1,198.850
13	Iowa	8-4	781.906	640.025	73.156	174.750	1,174.025
14	Louisiana State	7-4	874.375	625.588	109.406	237.938	1,152.619
15	Stanford	9-3	807.844	612.988	54.313	214.938	1,151.581
16	Florida	8-3	1,104.250	719.363	208.656	467.313	1,147.644
17	Auburn	8-4	940.250	730.100	189.719	400.750	1,079.881
18	Louisville	9-3	844.938	778.313	156.000	418.438	1,048.813
19	Washington State	8-4	733.500	597.938	77.625	217.438	1,036.375
20	South Florida	10-2	740.563	647.888	111.781	255.063	1,021.606
21	Nebraska	9-3	671.969	544.250	48.469	177.500	990.250
22	Tennessee	8-4	1,224.156	794.350	323.000	708.188	987.319
23	West Virginia	9-2	648.875	586.988	80.406	205.625	949.831
24	Navy	9-2	729.063	622.675	123.656	313.688	914.394
25	Boise State	10-2	850.250	642.825	191.594	491.000	810.481
26	Texas A&M	8-4	968.906	699.613	277.438	601.250	789.831
27	Virginia Tech	9-3	1,002.594	792.763	310.000	704.563	780.794
28	Oklahoma State	9-2	839.625	723.963	246.250	549.438	767.900
29	Pittsburgh	8-4	1,045.125	719.238	345.563	683.813	734.988
30	Houston	9-3	709.125	680.850	195.125	536.938	657.913
31	Troy	9-2	548.281	469.250	126.625	324.000	566.906
32	Tulsa	9-3	451.031	461.763	96.438	279.938	536.419