TUCFC: 2016 Week 12

Alabama once again defended the TUCFC and once again college football was thrown into chaos with more upsets of undefeated teams.  USC handled Washington and more than likely killed the Pac 12 from having a seat in the playoff.  Michigan also tripped up at Iowa, but they still have to play Ohio State and so one of those two teams will likely be in the playoff. 

So I thought this week we'd try and make an argument for the 10-0 Western Michigan team. 

First let's look at their out of conference schedule.  They beat Northwestern, NC Central, Illinois, and Georgia Southern.  None of these wins look all that good, but the best would be their win over Northwestern.  Still they have two wins over Big 10 schools.  Now let's look a bit deeper at the teams Western beat this year.  Central Michigan beat Oklahoma State, which the AP currently ranks 13 in the country.  Eastern Michigan beat Wyoming, and Northwestern beat Duke and Iowa.   OK granted these aren't hugely impressive, but they are still good enough to give Western Michigan a WP score of 412.313 in the TUCFC Power Ratings.  That's better than Washington, Nebraska, LSU, USC, and Oklahoma.  Of course the assumption here is that Western Michigan will win out, which means they would be sitting with a 13-0 record.  Only one other team in the country right now can match that. 

As I've said before I find it unlikely that Western Michigan can win out, just because it is so hard to do, but if they do and they are sitting at 13-0, with how bad some of these conferences have looked this year, I think you have to give them a birth into the playoff.  Here is what Western Michigan fans have to hope for if their team will have a chance. 

Michigan needs to beat Ohio State and then lose to Wisconsin in the Big 10 tournament.  Houston needs to beat Louisville and Clemson needs to lose in the conference championship.  Oklahoma and West Virginia both need to lose again.  Colorado beats Washington State, State beats Washington, Washington beats Colorado.  Essentially all of the power conferences, short of one, needs to completely destroy themselves I believe for Western Michigan to even have a shot at the playoff.  I have to say I find that a bit frustrating that a team like this goes out and schedules power conference competition wins all their games and still really has no shot at the playoffs. 


Games to Watch

Louisville (9-1) at Houston (8-2)
At one point during the season this looked like a must see game.  Now it's just a game Louisville hopes to win convincingly if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive. 

Clemson (9-1) at Wake Forest (6-4)
Clemson needs to bounce back strong from their lost, but this team has looked hot and cold all year.  Wake Forest could deliver the knockout blow if Clemson isn't careful. 

Ohio State (9-1) at Michigan State (3-7)
Check the score.  If Ohio State is blowing them out then no reason to watch.  If it's close tune in because this could be the ultimate trap game. 

Oklahoma (8-2) at West Virginia (8-1)
With those at the top tripping over themselves one of these teams could put themselves in a stronger position to make the playoff. 

Washington State (8-2) at Colorado (8-2)
If Washington State hadn't lost to start the season to Eastern Washington they may be in the playoff discussion.  This game will be very critical in deciding the Pac 12 champion. 

San Diego State (9-1) at Wyoming (7-3)
An odd year for Wyoming, but could they pull off another big upset. 



Week 12 Power Ratings
The interesting thing to note here is that the top four teams didn't change, just shifted around. 

Rank	Team	Record	WP	WDiffP	LP	LDiffP	Power
1	Alabama	10-0	1,011.313	907.038	0.000	0.000	1,918.350
2	Ohio State	9-1	638.375	780.938	19.781	48.750	1,350.781
3	Michigan	9-1	616.375	765.225	22.844	46.063	1,312.694
4	Clemson	9-1	744.563	695.775	60.625	136.125	1,243.588
5	Louisville	9-1	512.969	640.050	14.844	29.688	1,108.488
6	Wisconsin	8-2	498.250	492.263	18.625	35.813	936.075
7	Western Michigan	10-0	412.313	510.575	0.000	0.000	922.888
8	Penn State	8-2	587.781	563.388	69.938	184.938	896.294
9	Washington	9-1	403.844	522.725	20.094	85.813	820.663
10	Washington State	8-2	377.281	431.038	18.469	39.438	750.413
11	Tennessee	7-3	632.250	480.762	124.500	294.625	693.888
12	Texas A&M	7-3	560.188	496.513	114.594	278.188	663.919
13	Florida State	7-3	479.781	442.675	80.500	195.813	646.144
14	Boise State	9-1	413.719	414.787	43.750	139.813	644.944
15	Auburn	7-3	518.875	492.450	116.375	259.063	635.888
16	Florida	7-2	492.188	420.638	73.875	215.313	623.638
17	Nebraska	8-2	363.781	366.413	18.500	89.125	622.569
18	Louisiana State	6-3	373.875	364.813	48.750	90.500	599.438
19	Southern California	7-3	410.469	425.375	43.594	212.375	579.875
20	Troy	8-1	290.156	320.238	14.844	29.688	565.863
21	Oklahoma	8-2	305.438	403.575	35.031	115.250	558.731
22	Colorado	8-2	296.781	387.825	29.406	101.625	553.575
23	West Virginia	8-1	310.313	352.238	36.438	90.563	535.550
24	Iowa	6-4	354.344	355.063	50.125	139.500	519.781
25	Stanford	7-3	337.250	338.188	31.688	153.313	490.438
26	South Florida	8-2	344.156	401.613	80.781	209.500	455.488
27	Northwestern	5-5	270.219	257.138	32.406	94.500	400.450
28	Oklahoma State	8-2	397.500	422.663	120.688	305.125	394.350
29	Houston	8-2	331.563	426.300	91.188	276.625	390.050
30	Arkansas	6-4	382.531	349.988	100.188	287.125	345.206
31	Virginia Tech	7-3	499.938	491.200	182.688	479.688	328.763
32	Utah	8-2	329.281	305.588	68.344	238.125	328.400