MLB Update

Eric has done a great job keeping us up to date on what's been happening with the A's.  Here are the standings for both leagues with just over a month left in the season.  The odds of making the divisional playoffs, according to Fangraphs.com, are in parentheses (teams with less than a 10 percent chance are in italics):

AMERICAN:
Oakland (79.4%):  77-53  --
Los Angeles (69.7%):  77-53  --
Baltimore (90.5%):  74-55  2 1/2
Kansas City (53.9%):  72-58  5
Seattle (27.8%):  71-59  6
Detroit (60.4%):  70-59  6 1/2
New York (10.9%):  68-61  8 1/2
Cleveland (4.4%):  66-63  10 1/2
Toronto (2.3%):  66-65  11 1/2
Tampa Bay (0.8%):  64-67  13 1/2
Chicago (0.0%):  59-71  18
Minnesota (0.0%):  58-72  19
Boston (0.0%):  57-74  20 1/2
Houston (0.0%):  55-77  23
Texas (0.0%):  51-79  26

If baseball would trust fans to care about pennant races -- as the English Premier League does -- we would really have a barn-burner here between the A's, Angels, and Orioles.  Even under baseball's goofy format it will still be entertaining to see whether Oakland or Los Angeles wins the division, thus forcing the other into an absurd one-game playoff with Seattle, Kansas City, or Detroit.  It's hard to think of anything more unfair than having the A's or the Angels end their season in a one-game playoff loss to someone like Felix Hernandez or Justin Verlander.  But that's how MLB works these days.  (Please note that we at the HP do not cover the one-game playoffs, and do not count the team that loses such a playoff as a "playoff" team.  The divisional series are bad enough; we're not counting wild-card games.)


NATIONAL:
Washington (99.4%):  75-55  --
Los Angeles (95.7%):  74-58  2
Milwaukee (65.7%):  73-58  2 1/2
St. Louis (69.4%):  71-59  4
San Francisco (28.6%):  68-62  7
Atlanta (22.0%):  68-63  7 1/2
Pittsburgh (16.7%):  67-64  8 1/2
Miami (2.0%):  65-65  10
Cincinnati (0.4%):  63-68  12 1/2
New York (0.0%):  61-70  14 1/2
San Diego (0.0%):  60-70  15
Philadelphia (0.0%):  59-72  16 1/2
Chicago (0.0%):  58-72  17
Arizona (0.0%):  55-76  20 1/2
Colorado (0.0%):  53-77  22

In the National League, we are being deprived of another potentially entertaining pennant race between the Nats, Dodgers, and Brewers.  But it appears that Milwaukee and St. Louis will go down to the wire for the Central title, with the loser falling into the one-game playoff against San Francisco, Atlanta, or Pittsburgh.

Those top three teams present some interesting scenarios.  Washington hasn't won the pennant since 1933, and has never won the National League pennant.  The Expos, who moved to Washington after the 2004 season, also never won the National League pennant.  The Dodgers haven't won the pennant since 1988.  Milwaukee hasn't won any pennant since 1982, and hasn't won the NL pennant since 1958, when the Braves were based there.  On the other hand, the Cardinals and Giants have combined to win the last four National League pennants in a row, and they're not out of it yet.