MLB: One Month to Go

As we head into the last month of baseball season, here's what's been settled:

In the National League:
Atlanta will win the East
Los Angeles will win the West
Pittsburgh, St. Louis, and Cincinnati will make the playoffs, but we don't know which of those teams will win the Central.
Everyone else is out of it.  (There are an extraordinary number of bad teams in the National League this year.)


In the American League:

Boston will win the East
Detroit will win the Central
Texas and Oakland will probably make the playoffs
Tampa Bay, New York, Baltimore, Cleveland, and Kansas City are scrambling for the last playoff spot.

Under the system that prevailed from 1969 to 1993, baseball fans would be looking at very dramatic pennant races in the NL West (Braves and Dodgers), the NL East (Pirates and Cardinals), the AL East (Red Sox and Tigers), and the AL West (Rangers and Athletics).  At least one of these races would have gone down to the last wire, creating what used to be one of the most exciting weekends in American sports.  But under the current system, there is no reason to watch September baseball unless:  (1) you have a team that's still alive, or (2) you are a lunatic.  (Yes, I know the NL Central and AL West are still up for grabs, but a pennant race isn't the same if the loser gets into the playoffs anyway.  Just imagine:  "THE GIANTS AVOID THE PLAY-IN GAME!  THE GIANTS AVOID THE PLAY-IN GAME!")  Notwithstanding these facts, I'm confident that Commissioner Selig and his fans in the media will decide that the way to really boost interest in baseball is to let more teams into the playoffs.

One final note:  when I was a kid, three of my favorite things in the world were baseball pennant races, watching bowl games on New Year's Day, and Heath football.  Not anymore.


Here are the standings, along with each team's chances of making the playoffs, according to coolstandings.com.  Any team with a 100 percent chance of October baseball is in all caps.  Any team with a less than 10 percent chance of post-season play is in italics:

NATIONAL LEAGUE:
1.  ATLANTA (100.0 percent):  85-53  --
2.  Los Angeles (99.9 percent);  83-55  2
3.  Pittsburgh (99.8 percent):  81-57  4
4.  St. Louis (99.3 percent):  79-59  6
5.  Cincinnati (97.5 percent):  78-61  7 1/2
6.  Washington (2.4 percent):  70-68  15
7.  Arizona (1.1 percent):  69-68  15 1/2
8.  Colorado (< 0.1 percent):  65-75  21
9.  Philadelphia (0.0 percent):  63-76  22 1/2
10.  New York (< 0.1 percent):  62-75  22 1/2
11.  San Diego (< 0.1 percent):  62-76  23
12.  San Francisco (0.0 percent):  61-77  24
13.  Milwaukee (0.0 percent):  59-59  26
14.  Chicago (0.0 percent):  58-80  27
15.  Miami (0.0 percent):  52-85  32 1/2

AMERICAN LEAGUE:
1.  Boston (99.0 percent);  83-57  --
2.  Detroit (99.6 percent):  81-58  1
3.  Texas (95.4 percent):  80-58  2
4.  Oakland (94.8 percent):  79-59  3
5.  Tampa Bay (56.6 percent):  76-61  5 1/2
6.  New York (16.4 percent):  74-64  8
7.  Baltimore (16.2 percent):  73-64  8 1/2
8.  Cleveland (14.9 percent):  73-65  9
9.  Kansas City (7.1 percent):  72-66  10
10.  Los Angeles (<0.1 percent):  64-73  17 1/2
11.  Toronto (0.0 percent):  64-75  18 1/2
12.  Seattle (0.0 percent):  62-76  20
13.  Minnesota (0.0 percent):  61-76  20 1/2
14.  Chicago (0.0 percent):  56-81  25 1/2
15.  Houston (0.0 percent):  45-93  37