The Ashes, Match One, Day Four

OK, so England were finally retired after scoring 375 runs in their second innings.  At that point the scoreboard looked like this:

ENGLAND:  590
AUSTRALIA:  280
INNINGS:  Bottom of the 2d
AT BAT:  Australia
WICKETS REMAINING:  10

So Australia needed to score 311 runs to win.  And the Aussies got off to a good start.  Late in the afternoon, they had scored 160 runs and had only lost three wickets.  But then England took three wickets in a time where Australia scored only four runs.  The Aussies hung on without losing any more wickets after that, but they still have a long way to go and only four wickets left:

ENGLAND:  590
AUSTRALIA:  454
INNINGS:  Bottom of the 2d
AT BAT:  Australia
WICKETS REMAINING:  4

So tomorrow is the last day, and here is where things stand:

Australia need to score 137 runs before England takes four of their wickets.  If the Aussies can do this, they will win the game.  If they lose four wickets before scoring 137 runs, England will win.  And if Australia are still batting at the end of the day, the match will end in a draw.

The British commentators seem pretty confident that England will get it done, and the betting markets agree with them.  Here are the latest odds on this match:

England victory:  1 to 4 (80.65 percent chance)
Australia victory:  9 to 2 (18.87 percent chance)
Draw:  99 to 1 (1 percent chance)