I always think this weekend is the most painful of the college basketball season. There are, of course, some fan bases that are devastated by first- or second-round upsets -- this year, for example, Duke and Missouri suffered horribly. But most of the 5-6 teams that have a realistic chance to win the national championship make it through the first weekend. Plus you always have some great underdog teams (represent, Ohio!) who survive the first two rounds.
Now if you can make it through this weekend, you've had a great, banner-raising year -- even if you don't win the whole thing. I was -- and am -- absolutely distraught over the fact that our 1993 team lost to Michigan in the Final Four. But at least there's a banner in Rupp Arena memorializing that team.
On the other hand, if thought you had a great team, and you lose this weekend -- in either the Sweet 16 or the Elite 8 -- that is terrible. The circus goes on for another week, with everyone getting excited about the Final Four, and you are left out. Almost all of the really painful defeats I can recall -- losing to Carolina in 1977, to Louisville in 1983, to LSU in 1986, to Duke in 1992, to USC in 2001, Michigan State in 2005, to West Virginia in 2010 -- came during this weekend. Kentucky lost in the Sweet 16 or the Elite 8 in 1999, 2001, 2002, 2003, and 2005 -- five times in seven years -- and the results were absolutely exhausting for UK fans (and for their relationship with Tubby Smith).
So these are big games. Historic games. Games that will resonate with various fan bases for decades. (Message to all those Hoosier fans who think they have nothing to lose tomorrow night: we UK fans felt the same way when we played Duke in 1992, and we've mourned that game ever since.)
Here are tonight's match-ups:
East Region Semi-Finals (Boston):
Syracuse (33-2) v. Wisconsin (26-9)
Ohio St. (29-7) v. Cincinnati (26-10)
West Region Semi-Finals (Phoenix, Ariz.):
Michigan St. (29-7) v. Louisville (28-9)
Marquette (27-7) v. Florida (25-10)
Any additional thoughts will appear in the comments.
Here are Pomeroy's picks for tonight:
ReplyDeleteWisconsin 59, Syracuse 58
Ohio St. 70, Cincinnati 60
Michigan St. 65, Louisville 59
Florida 76, Marquette 75
So we'll see if the Big 10 is as good as he thinks.
It occurred to me that if Ken Pom's predictions are accurate, then the Big East will go 0-4 tonight and be completely eliminated from the tournament. I don't think that's going to happen.
ReplyDeleteAlthough, to be fair, Ken Pom would probably say he doesn't expect it to happen either -- it's just the most likely possibility out of numerous possibilities.
I usually think that Wisconsin's boring, slowdown system will work until they can meet a team with NBA-level talent. Syracuse has such talent, and they are up 33-25 with 15 seconds left before halftime.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, it's hard to believe that Louisville and Michigan State is a battle of two Hall-of-Fame coaches. MSU leads 5-3 with 11:48 to go in the first half.
ReplyDeleteBASKETBALL!
ReplyDeleteFor the record, Michigan State bounced UK in the 1999 and 2005 Elite Eights, and bounced U of L in the 2009 Elite Eight. In those three years, MSU kept Commonwealth teams out of three final fours. Here's what they did in those final fours:
ReplyDelete1999: Lost to Duke in the semi-finals, 68-62
2005: Lost to UNC in the semi-finals, 87-71
2009: Beat UConn in the semi-finals, 82-73; lost to UNC in the final, 89-72
In other words, they're the sort of team that torments UK and U of L, but gets blown out by Tobacco Road. In fact, MSU started off this season by losing to UNC and Duke. The Heels have got to be hoping they can get MSU in the final.
Michigan St. 11 - 17 Louisville (6:16 left in 1st half)
ReplyDeleteThis game is even more boring that that scoreline would indicate. MSU has not made a field goal in over 4 minutes.
Michigan St. 15 - 20 Louisville (3:45 left in 1st half)
ReplyDeleteI can't believe I'm already starting to think of Syracuse/Wisconsin as the high-scoring game of these two.
Michigan St. 18 - 23 Louisville (Halftime)
ReplyDeleteMan, I can't turn the channel fast enough.
The Syracuse/Wisconsin game looks like a portrayal of a college-basketball game put on by the Brick Testament people.
ReplyDeleteGood point.
DeleteSyracuse 53 - 56 Wisconsin (7:46 left in 2d half)
ReplyDeleteNow see, this is a much better game. Syracuse is sitting in its usual 2-3 zone, and the Badgers are just raining three's on top of them. Wisconsin is only 6-19 inside the arc, but they are 13-21(!) from three-point range.
Bad call on Wisconsin will send Syracuse to the line with a chance to cut into the Badger lead. The Cuse has benefited from an extraordinary number of bad calls all year; I have no idea why.
ReplyDeleteSyracuse 62 - 59 Wisconsin (4:47 left in 2d half)
ReplyDeleteAll year, I've had the impression that Syracuse spends most of the time on cruise control, and only goes all out when it has to. Since falling behind 53-56, the Orange have gone on a 9-2 run.
Syracuse 64 - 61 Wisconsin (31.7 seconds left in 2d half)
ReplyDeleteBadgers have gone cold from three-point range, but they are going to the line for a one-and-one.
Syracuse 64 - 63 Wisconsin (31.7 seconds left in 2d half)
ReplyDeleteThe Badgers make both FT's. Now they'll have to foul.
Syracuse 64 - 63 Wisconsin (15.5 seconds left in 2d half)
ReplyDeleteThe Orange miss the front end of a one-and-one, and in the battle for the rebound, the ball goes out on the Cuse!
wow. that last wisconsin possession looked as though the badgers thought they might take a point off syracuse's total and send the game to overtime.
ReplyDeleteSyracuse 64 - 63 Wisconsin (Final)
ReplyDeleteWisconsin gets the ball, but never comes close to getting off a good shot. The Orange finally figured out what Vanderbilt did not -- Jordan Taylor is the one guy for Wisconsin who you absolutely must guard. He missed an off-balance three, and the game is over.
To me, this is actually a very impressive victory. The Badgers went 14-27 from three-point range, and they still couldn't beat Syracuse.
Michigan St. 31 - 37 Louisville (10:17 left in 2d half)
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, back in the 1930's, the Cardinals are trying to make the Big East two for two against the Big 10.
Here's my question for all the Izzo worshipers: If he's such a great coach, why doesn't he ever beat Duke or UNC?
ReplyDeleteMichigan St. 31 - 42 Louisville (8:37 left in 2d half)
ReplyDeleteMan, you do not want to give Pitino time to prepare. He's never lost a Sweet 16 game, and the Cardinals are the one team who has figured out that Draymond Green is the only guy for Michigan State who you have to defend.
I don't know what will happen in this game, but I'm not sure I've ever seen a better coach in any sport than Rick Pitino when he was at Kentucky from 1990 to 1997.
ReplyDeleteMichigan St. 38 - 46 Louisville (3:46 left in 2d half)
ReplyDeleteSparty is trying to come back; they're on a very slow 5-0 run at this point.
Michigan St. 41 - 48 Louisville (2:45 left in 2d half)
ReplyDeleteMSU (5-16 from behind the arc) has finally started hitting three's, but they are running out of time.
Michigan St. 44 - 57 Louisville (Final)
ReplyDeleteIzzo must be a great coach, because I saw MSU get totally dominated by Duke, UNC, and U of L this season and I still don't know how they won any games.
Anyway, in 2009 U of L suffered a traumatic loss that I think most UK fans don't really appreciate. We didn't even make the tournament, while the Cardinals were the number 1 seed in the Midwest, and appeared to be cruising to the Final Four. In the Sweet 16, Louisville beat Arizona 103-64. But then, in the Elite Eight, the Cards were stunned by Michigan State, 64-52. The Spartans went on to collapse in the final against UNC, UK hired Calipari, and everything seemed to go wrong for Louisville.
But now the Cardinals have gotten revenge on MSU, and their fans will really enjoy the next 48 hours.
Ohio St. 9 - 7 Cincinnati (14:37 left in 1st half)
ReplyDeleteCan the Bearcats complete a Big East sweep of the Big 10?
And if we have to play Louisville every year, why doesn't OSU have to play Cincinnati every year?
My favorite part of this AT&T commercial is where the mom uses her smart phone to show her tween-age son to the two tween-age girls who have just stopped by, and the son -- who is apparently hanging out in his room -- says, "Mom, put me down." Ah, the joys of parenthood.
ReplyDeleteIt's very depressing to see Lesley Visser, by the way. She's had something done to her face, and now I can't even remember what she used to look like.
ReplyDeleteShe had an awful accident while jogging several years ago.
ReplyDeleteThat makes me feel both better and worse.
DeleteYeah, I know what you mean.
DeleteOhio St. 27 - 20 Cincinnati (3:30 left in 1st half)
ReplyDeleteBorr-ing.
I'm going to go check on Florida and Marquette.
Marquette 9 - 4 Florida (15:34 left in 1st half)
ReplyDeleteI have seen pretty much every Florida team since the early 1980's, and in that time they have probably gone through something like 50 different basketball uniforms. Today's uniform -- featuring dark orange jerseys and shorts with dark blue numbers that are virtually illegible -- is the worst Florida basketball uniform I've seen.
GO, MARQUETTE!
ReplyDelete"Don't sell your hair to a wig shop."
ReplyDeleteNumber3Son loves these commercials. He quotes them all the time.
Ohio St. 37 - 25 Cincinnati (Halftime)
ReplyDeleteThe Bearcats -- who may have the worst offense of any team that has ever reached the Sweet 16 -- appear to have met their match.
Marquette 17 - 17 Florida (11:14 left in 1st half)
ReplyDeleteNow this is a proper game, with two teams that actually play offense and defense. Both teams look sharp so far.
Marquette 19 - 17 Florida (9:24 left in 1st half)
ReplyDeleteI do want to point out that Erik Murphy -- who looked like Larry Bird when we played Florida in the SEC Tournament -- is 0-5 so far in this game.
Marquette 20 - 24 Florida (7:31 left in 1st half)
ReplyDeleteThe Gators are still only 3-11 from three-point range. If they get going, the Warriors could be in big trouble.
Marquette 28 - 27 Florida (3:53 left in 1st half)
ReplyDeleteFlorida still very cold (3-12) from three-point range. If that keeps up, they will be in big trouble.
Ohio St. 41 - 39 Cincinnati (15:44 left in 2d half)
ReplyDeleteSomehow, the Bearcats scored 14 points in less than 5 minutes to open the second half. Now I'm switching back to check on this game.
This is only the second meeting between OSU and UC since the Bearcats won the 1962 NCAA Championship game.
ReplyDeleteIt would be a bigger deal if Buckeye Nation weren't distracted by the fact that Urban Meyer is about to hold his first spring practice as OSU's football coach.
Here's my comment as an SEC football fan to those OSU fans:
ReplyDeleteBRING
IT
ON!
Ohio St. 43 - 46 Cincinnati (13:14 left in 2d half)
ReplyDeleteSee, this is what Ohio State gets for not playing these local rivals. The Buckeyes didn't realize just how frantic UC would be to open the second half.
So OSU has blown a 12-point halftime lead, just as UK blew an 11-point halftime lead against Iowa State. We will see how they respond.
Ohio St. 48 - 51 Cincinnati (11:34 left in 2d half)
ReplyDeleteOSU is falling into the same trap as Michigan State did against Louisville -- they are getting pulled into a physical battle where their basketball skills are not as useful.
Meanwhile, Florida leads Marquette 36-30 at the half.
ReplyDeleteOhio St. 55 - 52 Cincinnati (9:42 left in 2d half)
ReplyDeleteNow the Bucks are awake again; they've put on a 7-0 run to regain the lead, and UC is forced to call time.
Ohio St. 58 - 53 Cincinnati (7:25 left in 2d half)
ReplyDeleteThe Bearcats have gone back to not scoring, and OSU is now on a 10-1 run. Very solid response from the Buckeyes, who will presumably play all 40 minutes if they face Syracuse in the Elite Eight.
Ohio St. 65 - 53 Cincinnati (5:21 left in 2d half)
ReplyDeleteThe Buckeyes are now on a 17-1 run run, and they have completely re-built their halftime lead.
Another very impressive performance. The game between Syracuse and Ohio State should be an absolutely classic.
Marquette 34 - 40 Florida (15:33 left in 2d half)
ReplyDeleteThe Gators may not need to make three's after all. They're only 4-16 from behind the arc so far, but they're rolling along in pretty good shape.
Marquette 34 - 43 Florida (14:41 left in 2d half)
ReplyDeleteThere it goes! Erik Murphy finally makes a 3-pointer, and the Warriors call time.
OK, so it's time for one of my favorite thought experiments. What if the country were divided into 16 regions, just like Kentucky is divded into 16 regions for the state basketball tournament. I think the regions would be as follows:
ReplyDelete1: ME, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT
2: NY
3: PA, NJ, DE
4: DC, MD, VA
5: NC, SC
6: FL, GA, AL
7: MS, LA, AR
8: KY, TN
9: OH, WV
10: IN, MI
11: WI, IA, IL
12: KS, NE, ND, SD, MN, MO, OK
13: TX
14: AZ, NM, WY, CO, ID, MT
15: AK, HI, OR, UT, WA, NV
16: CA
OK, now let's imagine that the regional winners came together in a tournament that used the same draw as this year's KHSAA tournament. We will determine the regional winners by using today's rankings on Ken Pom. Here would be your match-ups:
California (24-10) v. Kansas (29-6)
Baylor (29-7) v. Syracuse (33-2)
Florida (25-10) v. Ole Miss (20-14)
Drexel (29-7) v. Michigan St. (29-7)
Georgetown (24-9) v. Kentucky (34-2)
Ohio St. (29-7) v. New Mexico (28-7)
Connecticut (20-14) v. Wisconsin (26-9)
N. Carolina (31-5) v. Gonzaga (26-7)
This would actually be a very entertaining tournament -- and some of the regional tournaments would have been unbelievable.
Here are the eight teams that would have made the Eighth Region Tournament (which alternates between Louisville, Lexington, Bowling Green, Memphis, Nashville, and Knoxville):
DeleteKentucky
Memphis
Vanderbilt
Louisville
Belmont
Murray St.
Middle Tennessee St.
Tennessee
Meanwhile, OSU will have bragging rights for a very long time, as they end up crushing the Bearcats 81-66. That is a huge number of points to score against Cincinnati.
ReplyDeleteMarquette 40 - 50 Florida (8:31 left in 2d half)
ReplyDeleteThe Gators still aren't shooting all that well; they are now 6-22 from three-point range. But they are playing really good defense -- Marquette is only 15-51 from the field in this game.
Marquette 44 - 52 Florida (6:54 left in 2d half)
ReplyDeleteFlorida still hasn't been able to put this game away, and you have to wonder if Marquette has one more run in them.
Marquette 44 - 54 Florida (5:34 left in 2d half)
ReplyDeleteMarquette just cannot score. They are now 16-55 from the field in this game.
Marquette 49 - 58 Florida (3:27 left in 2d half)
ReplyDeleteMarquette trying desperately to come back, but it's hard to pressure Florida.
Marquette 52 - 58 Florida (3:08 left in 2d half)
ReplyDeleteAfter missing 8 three-pointers in a row, Marquette finally hits one. They are called for a foul trying to get the ball back, and UF will be going to the line.
Marquette 55 - 61 Florida (1:15 left in 2d half)
ReplyDeleteNow both sides are scoring.
A very controversial play. Kenny Boynton for Florida was trying to dribble away from Marquette, and he threw an elbow and hit a Marquette defender in the face. No foul was called, and then Marquette had to foul Boynton to stop the clock.
The Marquette fans are furious, but Boynton is going to the line.
Marquette 55 - 63 Florida (1:04 left in 2d half)
ReplyDeleteBoynton, being Boynton, makes both free throws. Marquette cannot score, and Florida gets the ball. This game is now pretty much over, and two of the most underrated coaches in history -- Pitino and Donovan -- will meet in the Elite Eight.
Marquette 58 - 68 Florida (Final)
ReplyDeleteSo Pomeroy ended up going 2-2, same as the Big East, and we should have two great match-ups on Saturday.
For the record, I will not be live-blogging tomorrow night's games, as I will be quite busy.