Ken Pomeroy is out today with a blog post breaking down the NCAA Tournament. As I suspected last night, he thinks Kentucky has the easiest path of any number 1 seed. He also thinks that Kentucky is the best team. Putting those together, he gives UK the best chance of any team to cut down the nets in a few weeks.
It is important to realize, however, that while he gives UK the best chance, he still only gives them a 19.4 percent chance of winning it all. For that matter, he only gives them a 47.9 percent chance of making the Final Four. That's not because Kentucky isn't the best team -- he thinks they are the best team. But they are not so much better that they can be thought of as odds-on favorites. Upsets happen in single-elimination tournaments -- that's the only reason we still have hope that Louisville Trinity won't pick up the state basketball championship this weekend. So it's not enough for the Wildcats to be good; we probably need some luck as well. No wonder fans are so superstitious.
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