The Draw from Pomeroy's Perspective -- Not So Bad After All?

As I indicated below, I am certain that the Committee tried to load up UK's draw with emotional games against teams and coaches who have a very good history of beating UK in the NCAA's. To any Kentucky fan, having to beat Western, UConn, IU, and Duke just to reach the Final Four feels like a potential trip through a minefield.

But Pomeroy would say that if the Committee was really trying to hurt Kentucky's chances of reaching the Final Four, it may have outsmarted itself. Let's assume that each of the Number 1 seeds makes it to the Round of 32. According to Pomeroy, from that point on UK actually has what may be the easiest path to the Final Four:

South: According to Pomeroy's rankings, the toughest potential match-ups for UK are Iowa State (30) in the round of 32, Wichita State (10) in the round of 16, and Baylor (14) in the round of 8.

West: According to Pomeroy's rankings, the toughest potential match-ups for Michigan State are Memphis (9!) in the round of 32, New Mexico (13) in the round of 16, and Missouri (8) in the round of 8.

Midwest: According to Pomeroy's rankings, the toughest potential match-ups for North Carolina are Alabama (29) in the round of 32, Michigan (25) in the round of 16, and Kansas (4) in the round of 8.

East: According to Pomeroy's rankings, the toughest potential match-ups for Syracuse are Kansas State (22) in the round of 32, Wisconsin (6) in the round of 16, and Ohio State (2) in the round of 8.

So if Pomeroy's numbers hold, UK wouldn't play UConn, Indiana, or Duke. The Cats would also have the easiest round of 32 match-up, and the easiest round of 8 match-up. Only Carolina would have an easier road to the Elite Eight, but there the Heels would have to play Kansas, which Pomeroy considers to be one of the four best teams in the nation.

The whole thing is quite fascinating. For all of my time spent with Pomeroy's numbers, I can't help but think about the role of coaching, rivalries, and history in these games (but see the Note below). And I think the Committee did the same thing. But the numbers say otherwise. Once again, we will hope that the numbers are right.

Note: I would also say that I think Pomeroy's numbers for UConn could be misleading, as the Huskies' performance was misleadingly poor during the few weeks when Jim Calhoun was away from the team for medical reasons. But I also have to admit that Pomeroy's predictions of how UConn would do in the Big East Tournament -- when Calhoun was back and the Huskies were going all out -- were very accurate.