Here they are with the number in parenthesis representing their actual seeding.
| South | West | ||
| 1 | UK | 1 | Mich St |
| 16 | MVSU/WKU | 16 | Lamar |
| 8 | Uconn (9) | 8 | St. Mary's (7) |
| 9 | Iowa St (8) | 9 | Alabama |
| 5 | Florida St (3) | 5 | Southern Miss (9) |
| 12 | Ohio (13)/BYU (14) | 12 | NCSU |
| 4 | Indiana | 4 | Louisville |
| 13 | Texas (11) | 13 | Belmont (14) |
| 6 | Gonzaga (7) | 6 | Murray St |
| 11 | Iona (14) | 11 | Marshall (DNM) |
| 3 | Marquette | 3 | Wichita St (5) |
| 14 | Loyola Md (15) /Montana (13) | 14 | New Mexico St (13) |
| 7 | Vanderbilt (5) | 7 | Florida |
| 10 | Notre Dame (7) | 10 | Xavier |
| 2 | Baylor (3) | 2 | Duke |
| 15 | St. Bonaventure (14) | 15 | UNC-Asheville (16) |
| East | Midwest | ||
| 1 | Syracuse | 1 | UNC |
| 16 | Norf St/Vermont | 16 | Detroit |
| 8 | Saint Louis (9) | 8 | Colorado St (11) |
| 9 | Long Beach St (12) | 9 | Harvard (12) |
| 5 | UNLV (6) | 5 | Temple |
| 12 | Purdue (10) | 12 | Kansas St (8) |
| 4 | Memphis (8) | 4 | Georgetown (3) |
| 13 | Oral Roberts (DNM) | 13 | Virginia (10) |
| 6 | Creighton (8) | 6 | Wisconsin (4) |
| 11 | Cincinnati (6) | 11 | South Dakota St (14) |
| 3 | Missouri (2) | 3 | Michigan (4) |
| 14 | Davidson (13) | 14 | Colorado (11) |
| 7 | San Diego St (6) | 7 | New Mexico (5) |
| 10 | VCU (12) | 10 | California (12) |
| 2 | Ohio St | 2 | Kansas |
| 15 | Long Island (16) | 15 | Lehigh |
There are a few things that stand out to me when you look at this. Perhaps the most interesting is that The top part of the South bracket is pretty much identical to what we got. It makes me wonder if the NCAA starts out with a bracket that looks like this and then goes from there. The second thing that stands out to me is the snubbing of Marshall and Oral Roberts. Marshall's RPI has them as an 11 seed and yet they didn't even make the tournament. I find that a bit amazing as it seems to me you have to make a real effort to pluck out a potential 11 seed. Oral Roberts I can better understand as they would have been close to the cutoff point when you factor in the conference champs, but not Marshall.
The second thing I find interesting to look at is the up and down movement of teams. For instance an interesting matchup if we go by RPI is Vandy, Harvard. RPI has Vandy a 7 seed and Harvard a 9 seed. Instead Vandy drops down to 5 and Harvard moves up to 12. Those are pretty big swings. Now granted the last RPI that is available at NCAA.org only has the games through Saturday, but I still find it interesting to drop Harvard that much and put them into this game with Vandy. These are two teams who at the beginning of the season were top 20 teams who both struggled to live up to expectations. Now they just happen to end up in a 5 vs 12 game? Seems a bit designed to me. Two other intersting examples to look at are Memphis and Southern Mississippi. Memphis by RPI should be a 4 seed and Southern Miss a 5 seed. Instead both got shoved into an 8 vs 9 game, Memphis as an 8 seed and Southern Miss as a 9 seed. So both teams fell 4 slots. That is a huge drop for these two teams and put them in the bad position of having to play the number 1 seed in the second round. Memphis got it even worse since the 9 seed they are playing is by RPI an 8 seed.
If we look at the bracket as constructed by the NCAA and give them points based on their RPI rankings there is a bit of a misbalance. The South and Midwest brackets both measure at around the same dificulty level, while the West is rated the most difficult and the East the easiest. In the East there are only two teams which by RPI would have gotten a better seed than 5 (Syracuse and Ohio State). In the West there are five such teams (Michigan St, Memphis, Louisville, Marquette, and Missouri). The South also has five teams which would have gotten a better seeding than 5 (Kentucky, Wichita St, Indiana, Baylor, and Duke). While the Midwest has the correct amount 4 (UNC, Michigan, Georgetown, and Kansas). This should setup for a Syracuse, Ohio State matchup in the final eight. Michigan State meanwhile would have to get past two number 4's and a number 3, while UNC and KY both will have to get past a 3 and a 2.
What has all of this taught me, not much to be honest, but I do think it can give some insight into potential upsets in the first round. Murray State sad to say got a horrible draw, they got Colorado State who by there RPI should be an 8 but was dropped back to an 11.
By the RPI here would be the first round upsets.
UConn over Iowa St, Xavier over Notre Dame, and Southern Miss over Kansas St.
By Pomeroy's rankings here would be the first round upsets.
Texas over Cincinnati, Alabama over Creighton, California over Temple, NCSU over San Diego St, and Purdue over St. Mary's.
One more for you. The people at What If Sports have run their simulations and here are their first round upsets.
Connecticut over Iowa St, BYU over Marquette, Texas over Cincinnati, Alabama over Creighton, NCSU over San Diego St, and Belmont over Georgetown.
Good analysis. This is much better than simply relying on anecdotes and fame, as I tend to do. Studying Pomeroy's numbers has certainly helped me understand the game better than I did before.
ReplyDeleteI know some people who will be very worried about that Georgetown/Belmont game.
GO, TOPS!
ReplyDelete