For those of you watching the Oscars tonight, here are InTrade's predictions:
Best Picture: The Artist has a 94.0 percent chance of winning.
Best Actor: Jean Dujardin (The Artist) has a 62.6 percent chance of winning.
Best Actress: Viola Davis (The Help) has a 65.0 percent chance of winning
Best Director: Michael Hazanavicius (The Artist) has an 82.0 percent chance of winning.
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer (Beginners) has a 94.5 percent chance of winning.
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer (The Help) has a 93.6 percent chance of winning.
I'm rooting hard for Octavia Spencer, who graduated from Jefferson Davis High School in Montgomery, Alabama, and who got her B.A. from Auburn University.
ReplyDeleteI'm also rooting for George Clooney, who went to Augusta High School in Augusta, Kentucky.
ReplyDeleteThese red-carpet interviews are literally unwatchable. I've been forced to mute my TV.
ReplyDeleteABC has run commercials for new shows entitled "GCB" and "Don't Trust the B___ in Apartment 23." According to Wikipedia, the "B" in each of these titles stands for a term relating to women that is generally regarded as extremely offensive. How appalling.
ReplyDeleteThe Academy, probably feeling somewhat defensive since none of this year's movies were particularly popular, sends out the always-popular Morgan Freeman to open the proceedings with a dignified speech on the history of movies.
ReplyDeleteThen Billy Crystal, returning to host after last year's James Franco/Anne Hathaway debacle, opens with his usual humorous montage based on the year's films.
Crystal tells the audience that "nothing can take the sting out of a global economic crisis like watching millionaires give awards to each other."
ReplyDeleteHe's already surpassed everything Franco and Hathaway did last year.
Tom Hanks, looking quite old in a gray beard, comes out and gives the award for Cinematography for Hugo. Someone who probably spent months being yelled at by Martin Scorsese picks up the award.
ReplyDeleteNow the award for Art Direction also goes to Hugo. Apparently the technical types in the Academy were very impressed by that movie.
ReplyDeleteActually, the Guardian reports that Crystal's line was "nothing can take the sting out of our economic worries more than millionaires presenting themselves with little gold statues." Which is even better than I remembered it.
ReplyDeleteNow J.C. Penney comes on with a commercial about Ellen DeGeneres in an old West setting. The commercial is quite funny -- and I would probably watch a show about Ellen Degeneres in the Old West -- but I have no idea how what it has to do with J.C. Penney.
ReplyDeleteNow a commercial for GCB, which is apparently about the awful lives of rich women who attend megachurches in the suburbs of Dallas. Given that the folks in Hollywood know so much about the lives of Christians who live in the suburbs of Dallas, I'm sure this show will give us some real insight into the culture -- and won't just promote lazy stereotypes.
ReplyDeleteAfter a montage reminding us that they used to make really good movies in Hollywood, Jennifer Lopez and Cameron Diaz come out to give the award for best costume design.
ReplyDeleteThis goes to "The Artist," and I'm happy to see that the winner is a bald guy wearing a very nice tuxedo.
Now "The Iron Lady" wins for Best Makeup. It beats out Harry Potter, and I have a moment of sadness as I realize there won't be any more Harry Potter movies.
ReplyDeleteNow we have a montage of big stars telling us about how they went to movies when they were kids.
ReplyDeleteThe whole theme of this year's show is "Come on, folks, shouldn't you be going to the movies more often? Remember how great they used to be? Remember how much you used to like them?"
Sandra Bullock comes out to present the language for Best Foreign-Language Film, and makes a joke about speaking in Chinese with a German accent that just makes no sense at all.
ReplyDeleteIran wins for "A Separation," and I'm sure that will lead to better relations between our countries.
ReplyDeleteNow for a real award: Christian Bale comes out to give the award for Best Actress in a Supporting Role. Instead of using any of his movie voices. He speaks in an almost-incomprehensible English accent.
ReplyDeleteAs expected, Octavia Spencer wins. I was hoping she would get to the podium and yell "War Damn Eagle!" She doesn't do that, but she does say thanks to the State of Alabama (and many other people and entities) before choking up with tears.
ReplyDeleteNow we have a commercial for a new ABC show called "Missing," in which Ashley Judd stars as a former CIA agent who travels to Europe to track down her son, who disappeared while on a summer internship. I'm sure Matthew will love it.
ReplyDeleteNow a sketch for us old SCTV fans. Catherine O'Hara, Fred Willard and Eugene Levy do a pretty good job as members of a focus group who don't like "The Wizard of Oz."
ReplyDeleteTina Fey and someone else come out to give the award for Film Editing. Tina Fey makes a joke that is not as funny as anything Eugene Levy did in the focus group sketch.
ReplyDeleteThe Film Editing award goes to "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo." I have no idea what this award means, but apparently it was an upset, because the winners seem to be truly shocked.
ReplyDeleteThe award for Sound Editing goes to Hugo, which is doing very well so far. That Martin Scorsese can really put a team together.
ReplyDeleteI never saw Hugo, mainly because SmartGirl was upset that the movie didn't have the same title as the book on which it was based.
Oh, my Lord. There's an award for Sound Mixing? How long is Tina Fey going to be up there?
ReplyDeleteNot surprisingly, this award also goes to Hugo.
Kermit and Miss Piggy -- shouldn't they have been on earlier for the kids? -- introduce a Cirque du Soleil performance that's supposed to celebrate the movies. More of our night's theme: the movies, don't you miss us?
ReplyDeleteBy the way, neither Kermit nor Miss Piggy sounded like themselves.
The Cirque du Soleil performance is fine on its own -- if you like the sort of stuff they do -- but really says nothing about the movies. If you liked it, you're not going to say, "Hey, let's go to the movies!" You'll just say, "Let's go see Cirque du Soleil."
ReplyDeleteBilly Crystal follows up with some jokes about how only old people like the movies. He gets nervous laughter in response.
ReplyDeleteNow Robert Downey and Gwyneth Paltrow come out to give the award for Best Documentary. He tries to do a bit about how he's in the midst of making a documentary called "The Presenter." It had promise, but Gwyneth Paltrow is as terrible as usual.
ReplyDeleteThe award goes to "Undefeated," which is apparently about a high school football team in North Memphis. I'll keep an eye out for it.
Chris Rock comes out and gives the award for Best Animated Feature Film to Rango. I have four children, and none of us even considered going to see this movie. But maybe it's better than we thought.
ReplyDeleteBen Stiller and Emma Stone come out to produce the award for Visual Effects. They do a skit, but I'm distracted by the fact that she appears to be much taller than he is.
ReplyDeleteHugo wins this award as well -- it's working on a near-sweep in the technical categories.
ReplyDeleteBen Stiller is also shorter than the two women who lead the winners to the stage.
ReplyDeleteNow we get Melissa Leo to give out the award for Best Supporting Actor. I was rooting for Jonah Hill in Moneyball, but the award goes to the 82-year-old Christopher Plummer, who played an aged gay man. That's fine with me, because I thought he was great in "The Sound of Music" and "The Return of the Pink Panther."
ReplyDeletePlummer, who still looks great, becomes the oldest Oscar winner ever. The crowd is very happy.
ReplyDeleteInTrade is two-for-two so far.
Oh, man! In April, Titanic comes out in 3-D! I can hardly wait.
ReplyDeleteBilly Crystal does a dreadful sketch where he mocks members of the audience, and then introduces the President of the Academy. The President tells us that the movie industry really, really cares about making good movies.
ReplyDeleteThe President delivers his line with all the joy of a man making a hostage tape. Billy Crystal says, "Thank you, and thank you for whipping the crowd into a frenzy." That was actually the funniest thing he's done all night.
ReplyDeleteOwen Wilson comes out with Penelope Cruz to give the award for Best Original Score. He is actually taller than she is.
ReplyDeleteThere's a nice little montage of swirling notes and movie clips as they play about 30 seconds from each score.
And the winner is: "The Artist." It's one of the first times "Hugo" has been beaten, but I don't think it will be the last.
Next up is Will Farrell and some other guy. They come out of the orchestra pit wearing white tails and banging cymbals.
ReplyDeleteThey are here to give the award for Best Original Song, a sadly reduced category. In the old days -- I think even as recently as last year -- they used to have the singers come out and do the songs on stage. This year, it seems like only two songs were even nominated, and we only get short clips of each.
After a lot of business involving cymbals, the award goes to "Man or Muppet," which had something to do with the Muppets. The songwriter turns out to be one of the guys from "Flight of the Conchords," and his speech is the wittiest of the night so far.
Now Ellen Degeneres is back with another J.C. Penney commercial, this one set in the time of "My Fair Lady." This one turns on the fact that an item costs "14 pounds and 99 pence." I am distracted by the fact that in 1910, there were actually 240 pence in a pound, not 100. But that's probably just me.
ReplyDeleteOK, now here's Angelina Jolie -- looking quite skeletal -- giving my favorite awards; the ones for writing.
ReplyDeleteFirst up, the award for Best Adapted Screenplay, which really should go to Aaron Sporkin for "Moneyball." But instead, it goes to the people who wrote "The Descendants." As usual, the writers make a good speech.
Now Angelina -- who gets to give the award by herself, unlike most presenters -- turns to the award for Best Original Screenplay.
ReplyDeleteWoody Allen wins for "Midnight in Paris"(!) I think that's a surprise.
Woody famously never attends the Academy Awards, so Angelina graciously accepts the award on his behalf. She really doesn't look healthy, by the way.
Now we have another set of clips of movie stars telling us that the movies are great.
Next Sunday, ABC will be broadcasting a new episode of "Once Upon a Time."
ReplyDeleteAt some point, when I wasn't paying attention, ABC apparently decided to go with an all-surreal programming lineup.
Really? Ashley Judd as an ex-CIA agent whacking European bad guys? Really?
Oh, boy, it's the brief summary of the technical awards. I love this part. The awards are given to all these engineers and computer guys who have their own special ceremony. Obviously, none of the regular movie people want to attend that ceremony -- but every year, a beautiful starlet is forced to host the engineering Oscars and give out the awards to the geeks. This year, Milla Jovovich drew the short straw, and I hope the engineers appreciated her efforts.
ReplyDeleteNow the stars of "Bridesmaids" come up and engage in some fairly crude banter before giving the award for Best Live-Action Short to "The Shore."
ReplyDeleteAs ever, I have no idea why these short films are made, or where they can be seen. Maybe they're on Netflix.
After some more "Bridesmaids" banter, the award for Best Short Documentary goes to "Saving Face," which appears to be a documentary about a plastic surgeon who goes to Pakistan to help women whose faces were damaged by acid.
ReplyDeleteFinally, we get to Best Animated Short, which goes to "The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore." This one I've actually heard of, because it is a very popular App for the iPad.
ReplyDeleteIt was apparently made by two guys from Louisiana, one of whom wears a fedora throughout his speech. They seem very happy.
Boy, the folks behind "GCB" have to really be hoping that Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich will denounce them at some point. I've never seen a more blatant effort to offend Red America.
ReplyDeleteOK, here's a real movie star -- Michael Douglas -- to present the award for Best Director. There are some huge names in this category, including Terrence Malick, Woody Allen, and Martin Scorsese. But as expected, it goes to Michel Hazanavicius for "The Artist."
ReplyDeleteNext up, here's Meryl Streep to tell us about the Governor's Awards. As far as I can tell, these awards go to people who never got an Oscar, but who should have. This year, they went to James Earl Jones and Dick Smith (a famous make-up artist). Oprah Winfrey won an award for being a great humanitarian. We see clips from the Governor's Awards, and then the winners stand up while everyone applauds.
ReplyDeleteI'm very happy for James Earl Jones, but I think he should have gotten to stand on the real stage, like the real Oscar winners.
Here's SmartMom's favorite part, the annual tribute to Hollywood's dead. This year, the montage of dead stars features Jane Russell, Annie Girardot, Farley Granger, Whitney Houston, Peter Falk, Cliff Robertson, Sidney Lumet, Steve Jobs, Jackie Cooper, Elizabeth Taylor, and a bunch of executives, agents, and technical folk.
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately, this too has been cut down. They used to have a lot more clips of the honored dead, but this year we mostly just got pictures.
To be honest, I don't know what the Academy is doing with its time tonight. Everything about the awards seems smaller than it used to be.
Now there's a commercial for something called "Smart TV," where you apparently talk to your TV and get it to do things.
ReplyDeleteI flatly refuse to talk to my TV.
And now, more Ashley Judd: "I'm not CIA. I AM A MOTHER!"
ReplyDeleteI didn't make that up. They really just showed that.
Back to clips of actors talking about the movies. I have no idea why they think this is a better advertisement for the movies than things like showing clips of the honored dead and letting us hear the Oscar-nominated songs. I mean, who cares what Ed Norton Jr. thinks about the movies?
ReplyDeleteAlso, a lot of the actors are wearing black and they were filmed against a black screen, which makes this whole thing look really dark.
As soon as the clip ends, Billy Crystal makes fun of it.
"I'm not CIA. I AM A MOTHER!!!"
ReplyDeleteYou know what? I bet she's pretty good in that show.
And now Natalie Portman is out to give the award for Best Actor. She gives a little shout-out to each nominated actor, and we see a tiny clip of each performance.
ReplyDeleteWe were rooting for Augusta's own George Clooney, but the award goes to Jean Dujardin for "The Artist."
"I'm not CIA. I AM A MOTHER!!!"
ReplyDeleteEllen Degeneres has a final J.C. Penney commercial where she's in Roman times. She's trying to return a toga, and the sales clerk ask her when she bought it. Trying to remember, she says, "After the locusts. When were the locusts? Cause it was right after those."
ReplyDeleteI think that may have been the funniest moment of the evening.
And now Colin Firth to give the award for Best Actress. This award, in an upset, goes to Meryl Streep for "The Iron Lady." It's the first time InTrade has been wrong all night.
ReplyDeleteThe audience goes wild. Meryl Streep gives a very charming speech, in which she thanks her husband and her make-up artist. It turns out she's been working with the same make-up person since "Sophie's Choice," and I'm surprised I hadn't heard that before.
Finally, we are ready for the award for Best Picture. Tom Cruise, who now counts as a Grand Old Star, is there to give the award.
ReplyDeleteI would have given Best Picture to "The Tree of Life," but it was always going to "The Artist."
I didn't see "The Artist," because it seems like a warmed-over version of "A Star Is Born." But my friends who did see it said they liked it, and everyone seems to think it was a worthy winner.
Having sat through the ceremony, I now have some desire to see both "Hugo" and "Midnight in Paris." So the Oscars did encourage me to watch more movies, after all.
Oh, and I'm very happy for Meryl Streep.
Oh, and InTrade ended up going five for six in its predictions.
ReplyDeletereading this run after having not watched was a freaking stone-cold rolic.
ReplyDelete