OK, What Have the Wildcats Got?

Heading into Conference play -- my least favorite part of the season -- it makes sense to compare this UK team to the last two. When the season began, there were hopes that this team would be significantly better that UK's last two teams. So far, I'm not seeing that. But there are reasons to believe that this team is good enough to go all the way.

Let's start with how this year's team compares to the John Wall team. So far, UK ranks 97th in the nation in 3-point shooting, 27th in 2-point shooting, and 106th in free-throw percentage. The John Wall team, by contrast, was 218th in 3-point shooting (just ask West Virginia), 6th in 2-point shooting (thank you, DeMarcus Cousins), and 239th in free-throw percentage (the horror, the horror). The John Wall team was also 164th in the nation in turnovers, while this team is 79th, a significant improvement. Furthermore, even though the Wall team was worse at shooting three's, they took more three's than this team does. (I never did understand why they took as many three's as they did.) When you add it all up, this team is more efficient on offense (7th in the nation in offensive efficiency) than the Wall team (15th in the nation). But to my mind, the advantage for our current team is more significant than these figures indicate. In a one-game playoff, three-pointers and free-throws can kill you. The Wall team lost in the Elite Eight because it went 4-32 from three-point range and 16-29 from the line. At the time, it seemed like an epic choke -- but the figures show that UK had a big problem with three's and free throws all year. I think this year's team is less likely to have such a comprehensive shooting breakdown. For example, they shot terribly from the field against U of L, but they still made 32-43 from the line.

On defense, the two teams are amazingly similar. The Wall team was sixth in the country in defensive efficiency -- largely because it was first in the country in blocks and sixth in defensive two-point percentage. This year's team is fourth in the nation -- largely because it is second in blocks and first in defensive two-point percentage. Both the 2010 team and this team were/are good-but-not-great at defending the three: Wall's team was 47th in the nation, this team is 67th. Neither was very good at generating turnovers -- the Wall team was 218th in the country, this one is 194th. (By the way, this is why Calipari's teams don't get all of the transition baskets that Pitino's teams used to get. Their defense is designed to stop you in the half-court, not turn you over.)

So, on the whole, this team is very, very similar to the Wall team -- but it shoots the ball a little bit better, and in the tournament, that could make the difference.

Now let's look at the Brandon Knight team. That team's offense was also the 7th most efficient in the country, just like this team. That's because, while Knight's team ranked only 122d in two-point percentage, it was 9th in the country from three-point range. Last year the Cats made 39.7 percent of their three's; this year they're down to 36.4 percent. Three-point shooting saved the day for Knight and company in the NCAA's; they made 12-22 three's to knock out UNC to reach the Final Four. But playing in that goofy dome in Houston against UConn befuddled them; they could only make 9-27 (plus they only shot 4-12 from the line), and they lost by a point. It's not likely that this year's team will put up a 12-22 performance against anybody from three-point range, especially in the Elite Eight. On the other hand, this team is much better at scoring from two-point range, so they will be in a stronger position to deal with any goofy domes in which they have to play.

Furthermore, this team is slightly better than the Knight team on defense. Last year, UK's defense was the 15th most efficient in the country; this year they rank 4th. However, a few caveats should be kept in mind. Last year, UK had terrible luck when its opponents went to the line -- we were 318th in opponents' free throw percentage -- and that hurt our defensive efficiency. This year, the Cats rank 131st in this category, which is largely the result of chance. Also, down the stretch last year UK's defense was just lights out -- even the high-fliers from UNC made only 43.5 percent of their shots against UK in the NCAA's. It remains to be seen if this year's team will get on that sort of defensive roll.

Nevertheless, while excellent three-point shooting and hot defense got UK to the Final Four last year, I think this year's team has a greater upside. Last year, against UConn, the Cats were killed on the inside. We went 12-35 from 2-point range in that game, while UConn was 22-37 inside the arc; given that we went only 9-27 from three's, and 4-12 from the line, we couldn't make up that difference. This year, we should do better close to the goal.

I'd also like to make one other point about the Knight team, because I think it's interesting. Both the Wall team and this year's team played at about the same relatively fast pace -- Wall's team was 65th in the nation in tempo, while this one is 68th. But last year's team played at the 210th fastest pace in the country -- significantly slower than the other two Cal teams.

Having crunched all of these numbers, it seems to me that we are probably in a slightly better position to win the title than in the last two years -- but not in a greatly better position. It also seems to me that three-point shooting is the one area where UK could significantly improve its chances. Right now, Miller is shooting 34 percent from three-point range (he made 44.2 percent last year). Wiltjer has made only 32.4 percent of his threes, while poor Teague has made only 28.6 percent. If Miller can get back up to where he was last year -- and he has been getting better lately -- and either Wiltjer or Teague can show improvement, then UK's offense could become unstoppable. If not, then UK will have to grind out a bunch of tough games in the tournament similar to the ones they've already played against UNC, Indiana, and Louisville.