Congratulations to the Green Bay Packers, who are the best team in the NFL according to the Heath Post poll. Congratulations also to the New England Patriots, the 2010 poll winners, who won their last eight games of the year to hold off the Saints for second place.
I realize, of course, that NFL will follow its longstanding tradition of deciding the champion through a system of "playoffs." But there is no reason to believe that playoffs identify the best team in the league, and indeed simple math will show that the best team will often not win the playoffs.
Take this season. There can be little doubt, in my opinion, that the Packers are truly the best team in the NFL. They have the best record by two games over their nearest competitor. Their point differential is 30 points better than that of every other team except for the Saints, and they beat the Saints during the regular season. But that does not mean the Packers will win the playoffs. Let's assume, for the sake of argument, that the Packers are so good that they have an 80 percent chance of winning any game they play. Under these circumstances, their chance of winning three consecutive playoff games is only 51.2 percent. (0.8 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 0.512). In other words, even a dominant team with an 80 percent chance of victory in each game will only survive three rounds of playoffs just over half the time. In other words, in the scenario above, there is a 48.8 percent chance that the best team will not win the Super Bowl.
Of course, if Green Bay loses, the experts will have a ready explanation of why they were not worthy champions. But the more likely explanation is that the Packers' coin flip simply turned up heads instead of tails.
Let me be clear: I don't mind the NFL playoffs. I like them for much the same reason I like the bowl games; they are a lot of fun and they are traditional. But they are not a very good way to identify the best team in the league.
So regardless of what flukey events may happen in the playoffs, here are the ten best teams in the NFL:
1. Green Bay Packers: 15-1
2. New England Patriots: 13-3
3. New Orleans Saints: 13-3
4. San Francisco 49ers: 13-3
5. Baltimore Ravens: 12-4
6. Pittsburgh Steelers: 12-4
7. Atlanta Falcons: 10-6
8. Detroit Lions: 10-6
9. Houston Texans: 10-6
10. New York Giants: 9-7
bengals lose at texans
ReplyDeletelions lose at saints
falcons win at giants
steelers win at broncos
saints lose at 49ers
steelers win at patriots
texans lose at ravens
falcons lose at packers
steelers lose at ravens
49ers lose at packers
packers beat ravens in super bowl
the giants have terrific uniforms. terrific.
ReplyDeletethe giants have two excellent wide receivers, a professional quarterback, a fine little halfback and some exciting defensive talent. that appears as though it's going to be enough to overcome the falcons, who are in grave danger of becoming the new chargers--always up-and-coming and dangerous but unable to actually get great before talented players at key players age out of effectiveness.
ReplyDeletedespite the dolphins' failure, i've enjoyed this nfl season as much as any in recent years. i have no idea how it's going to play out. it's so rare that the nfl playoff tournament reveals the league's definitively best team because there is so rarely in the nfl a definitively best team.
ReplyDeletethere's 4:16 to go in the third, and the falcons for the second time in this game elected to run Matt Ryan into the middle of the line on fourth-and-inches as opposed to attempting a short-range field goal. both times they've failed. the first time, it led to Eli Manning giving back two of the wouldbe three points by intentionally grounding in the end zone. but that was early, and this is late--and Eli has a history of playing sharper at the end of games than he does at the beginning.
ReplyDeleteand, indeed, he just threw a mid-range pass that (fantastic) Hakeem Nicks caught and advanced through the falcons' house-of-cards defense for a long touchdown. it's now 17-2.
they're 15-1, so there's a lot of reason to believe the packers are a definitively best team, but i don't know. these giants and the lions almost beat them, and the Romeo Crennel chiefs did beat them--all at the end of the season.
ReplyDeleteand i'm pretty sure the patriots will prove to again not have enough great offensive players to overcome good defenses in the playoffs.
ReplyDeleteso, like most nfl playoffs, i expect this tournament will be another slot-machine situation where the whirl of individual matchups, injuries and weather/home-field advantage will shake out a champion that might appear curious against the backdrop of the regular season.
ReplyDeleteso, for example, i think the steelers are in big, big trouble today at denver. Rashard Mendenhall is a big loss that could encourage pittsburgh to de-emphasize the run and make denver's fast, '90s-dallasish defense really dangerous. plus, a starting steelers safety (Ryan Clark) is sitting out, and that's one fewer savvy veteran to make Tim Tebow look like a pretender.
ReplyDeleteand, apparently, the broncos are ready to rush in Brady Quinn if Tebow again struggles, and followers of the hp's 1974 coverage should be fully aware of the potential Gary Marangi Impact.
ReplyDeletewell, i just spent the last 20 minutes reading about Lesley Visser's love life. she has reportedly gotten remarried, to a man introduced to her by Rick Pitino, after divorcing Dick Stockton, whom she met at game 6 of the 1975 world series.
ReplyDeletei have been rooting for Tebow all season, so i am obviously biased. but if they don't call some first-down passing plays, i just don't see any reason to believe that he can be successful. his passing has been mostly abysmal the last few weeks, but it seems he's constantly throwing out of second- and third-and-long situations in which the defense has almost no reason to favor the run.
ReplyDeletewell, there you go. broncos lead, 7-6, as Tebow completes deep passes on third- and second-and-long both times after doomed first-down runs into the middle of pittsburgh's defensive line.
ReplyDeleteI hate this new overtime rule. In general, I would urge the NFL to avoid changing any rules -- ever -- in response to complaints from sports radio.
ReplyDeletethe other way it works is if you run it into the middle of the line on first down for the whole game, and, then, on the first play of overtime, you throw play-action pass and your receiver catches the ball in stride and outruns the backup safety to the end zone.
ReplyDeleteI am so, so happy for Tebow and the Broncos fans. This was the last game of the year in Denver, and now they will have this memory forever.
ReplyDeleteHere were Tebow's numbers:
10-21, 316 yards, 2 TD's, 0 interceptions
This Tim Tebow story is one of the most amazing things I can remember in the history of sports.
Meanwhile, in Pittsburgh they are going to wonder why the Steelers weren't playing a more conservative defense. The Steelers would have gotten the ball as long as they held Denver to a field goal.
ReplyDeleteWe get a Colts/Oilers game in Baltimore next Sunday. I'm looking forward to that.
ReplyDeleteAnd we get an intra-division matchup between the 49ers and the Saints. You know you can throw out the record books when divisional rivals collide.
Drudge pointed out that Tebow threw for "3:16" yards.
ReplyDeleteYeah, they've been discussing that on Joe B and Denny this morning. They've also been discussing the great, old joke about Joe B's not allowing his guards to shoot during the robbery of the bank where he worked after retiring from UK. I love that joke.
ReplyDeleteIt's really a good thing that Hall retired before the three-point shot. If you look at Crum and John Thompson -- two other coaches who loved to use big men -- you'll see that neither of them did very well once the three-point line was implemented.
ReplyDeleteCoaches Crum and Hall both talked this morning about the necessity of throwing the ball in to their centers as psychology--to keep the big guys focused and enthusiastic.
ReplyDeleteNow they've got Jerry Tarkanian on the show, and Coach Hall mentioned how "everybody was cheering for you" in his suit against the NC2A that eventually resulted in a huge settlement in his favor.
ReplyDelete"It wasn't worth it," Coach Tarkanian told his friends.
this tournament is so far playing out pretty much how the regular season suggested it would. the only surprises against the actual results of the regular season so far have been last weekend's giants over falcons and broncos over steelers.
ReplyDeleteEd Reed being carried off field in baltimore ...
was so far. giants over packers was a surprise, of course, though new york did nearly beat green bay in the regular season.
ReplyDeleteravens win at patriots.
giants lose at 49ers.
ravens beat 49ers in super bowl.