Monday, October 24, 2011
Texas v. St. Louis (World Series Game 5)
Only two or three games left in the baseball season -- this will be the last game of the year played in the little bandbox in Dallas. The two aces on the mound: Chris Carpenter for the Cardinals, C.J. Wilson for the Rangers. How will they do?
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No score after the first inning. Neither team really threatened.
ReplyDeleteIn the top of the 2d, Texas's nerves (remember they made 3 errors in Game 3) get them again. Matt Holliday walked and went to second on a wild pitch. Then Berkman walked to put men on first and second. David Freese flied out, but then Yadier Molina poked a single through the left side of the infield that scored Holliday. But then the Texas left fielder bobbled the ball, allowing Berkman to reach third. And then Skip Schumacher hit a grounder to first that could have been a double play -- but Mike Moreland bobbled it, meaning that he could only step on first for one out. Meanwhile, Berkman scored.
ReplyDeleteSo the Cardinals ended up with 2 runs on only 1 hit, an error, two walks, a wild pitch, and a poor fielding play at first. Innings like this can really hurt you in the World Series.
Texas goes down 1-2-3 in the bottom of the 2d. Fangraphs gives St. Louis a 69 percent chance of victory.
ReplyDeleteMore defensive troubles for Texas in the top of the 3d. Rafael Furcal, the Cardinal lead-off man, put down a beautiful bunt on the first base line. Pitcher Wilson, trying to beat Furcal to first, tried a backhand flip to first -- but the ball shot past Moreland, and rolled to the wall.
ReplyDeleteFurcal ended up on second after hitting a ball that rolled no more than 60 feet.
The next St. Louis batter bunts Furcal over to third. The ever-loyal Dallas fans give their team a sarcastic cheer for getting the out at first.
ReplyDeleteTexas walks Pujols to put men on 1st and 3d with one out. Matt Holliday coming to the plate.
Wilson and Holliday settle in for a major battle. After eight pitches the count is full. Holliday finally rips a grounder to third -- and it turns out to be a perfect double play ball.
ReplyDeleteTexas survives the inning without giving up any more runs.
That was a huge, huge, play.
Maybe Holliday should have tried another bunt.
On that one double play, St. Louis's chance of victory went from 74 percent to 64 percent. Just a huge play for Texas.
ReplyDeleteAnd now the number 9 hitter for Texas -- Mike Moreland, the struggling first baseman -- hits a tremendous home run into the second deck in right field to make the score 2-1.
ReplyDeleteNow Texas smells blood. With two outs, Elvis Andrus lays down a perfect bunt that rolls between Carpenter and the third baseman -- and he beats it out easily. Josh Hamilton then bloops a single to left, and Texas has men on 1st and 2d with two out. Michael Young at the plate.
ReplyDeleteBut Young cannot come through. Carpenter -- who is clearly laboring -- induces him to ground out to short, and the inning is over. St. Louis leads 2-1 after 3.
ReplyDeleteSt. Louis now has a 61 percent chance of victory.
ReplyDeleteWilson, looking much more confident after he survived the drama in the third, mows down the Cardinals 1-2-3 in the top of the 4th. But it has taken him 76 pitches to get through 4 innings, and it will be interesting to see how much longer he can go.
ReplyDeleteCarpenter, having apparently decided that his curve ball is his best pitch, uses a series of curve balls to retire Adrian Beltre, Nelson Cruz, and David Murphy in order.
ReplyDeleteCarpenter has thrown 55 pitches through 4 innings, so he is on a better pace than Wilson.
St. Louis still leads 2-1 after 4.
The Cardinals now have a 62 percent chance of victory.
ReplyDeleteHuge chance for the Cardinals. Skip Schumacher, the number-8 hitter, strokes a single up the middle to open the 5th. And then Nick Punto, the 9th hitter, is walked to put runners on 1st and 2d with no one out and the top of the order coming up.
ReplyDeleteSt. Louis, hoping to avoid a double play, has Rafael Furcal bunt the runners over. Beltre (the Texas 3d baseman) races up to get the ball and looks like he wanted to throw to 3d -- but no one is covering 3d. So Beltre throws to 1st.
ReplyDeleteNow St. Louis has runners on 2d and 3d with 1 out. It's up to Allen Craig now.
But Craig fails! Wilson strikes him out.
ReplyDeleteNow Pujols comes to the plate. But Texas walks him to load the bases and bring up Matt Holliday.
For the second time in three innings, Wilson walks Pujols and gets Holliday to hit into a ground ball. Holliday grounds to short, the inning is over.
ReplyDeleteAfter four and half innings, St. Louis leads 2-1.
Wilson has thrown 100 pitches, but every time he's had to dig down and get out of a jam, his stuff has been really good.
A huge break for Texas. With two outs, Ian Kinsler hit a weak grounder down the first base line. Carpenter should have been able to make the play, but he couldn't pick up the ball in time. Carpenter is charged with an error, and Texas has the tying run on 1st.
ReplyDeleteBut Carpenter gets Andrus to line out to center, and the inning is over.
ReplyDeleteAt the end of five, St. Louis leads 2-1.
St. Louis now has a 64 percent chance of victory.
ReplyDeleteCarpenter has thrown 71 pitches through 5 innings.
ReplyDeleteWilson has thrown 100.
But can St. Louis take advantage of Wilson's high pitch count?
Wilson fans Lance Berkman for his third strikeout of the game (compared to five walks).
ReplyDeleteBut he gives up a single to David Freese and his day is over.
He pitched 5 1/3 innings, allowed 4 hits, 1 earned run, and 5 walks to go along with his 3 strikeouts. He is also responsible for the runner at first.
The new Texas pitcher is Scott Feldman. He was a starter from 2008 to 2010, but he missed the first half of this season due to surgery, and he has been a long man for Texas in the post-season. He went 2-1 with an ERA of 3.94.
ReplyDeleteHe faces Yadier Molina with a man on first.
Molina hits another seeing-eye single through the left side of the infield, and the Cardinals have men on first and second with one out.
ReplyDeleteSkip Schumaker comes up to the plate.
Schumaker grounds out weakly to first. The runners move to 2d and 3d, but now there are two out and the Cardinals' number 9 hitter -- Nick Punto -- is their last hope in this inning.
ReplyDeleteFeldman strikes out Punto, and the Cardinals leave two more runners on base. They are 1-9 with men in scoring position in this game. They are trying to play small ball -- which is not necessarily a bad strategy. But they just don't have anyone other than Pujols who is dependable in a clutch situation.
ReplyDeleteWhile the Cardinals have been playing small ball, the Rangers have been swinging for the fences. This strategy is often a mistake against a good pitcher like Carpenter, and the Rangers have looked bad on a lot of at-bats. But Adrian Beltre -- swinging so hard he landed on one knee -- clubs a pitch over the left field wall. And we are tied at 2.
ReplyDeleteNelson Cruz slaps a single up the middle. And now the Rangers have the lead run on first with two out. David Murphy coming to the plate.
ReplyDeleteMurphy singles through the middle. Cruz races to third. Now the Rangers have a chance to blow the game open.
ReplyDeleteMike Napoli -- who clinched last night's victory with a three-run homer in the 6th -- is coming to the plate. And the Dallas fans, who have been sullen for most of the evening, are now chanting "Nap-O-Li! Nap-O-Li!"
Here is the key at-bat: Carpenter v. Napoli.
ReplyDeletePitch 1: ball
Pitch 2: huge swinging strike
Pitch 3: Napoli pounds a curve ball to the absolute deepest part of the ball park, but Schumaker makes the catch and ends the inning.
After six innings, the score is tied 2-2.
Now each team has a 50-50 chance of victory. In fact, the next team to score will probably win this game -- and the series.
ReplyDeleteTo pitch the 7th, the Rangers are going with Alexi Ogando, who was fantastic during most of the playoffs, but who has struggled against the Cardinals so far.
ReplyDeleteOgando strikes out Furcal to start the inning. One out.
ReplyDeleteThe crowd is now going wild on every pitch.
Ogando goes to 3-2 on Allen Craig, and then walks him.
Now Pujols is coming up.
Now the crowd is nervous. Pujols homered off of Ogando in Game 3.
ReplyDeleteBut the Cardinals run themselves into an out. Craig tries to steal second and is thrown out easily by Napoli.
ReplyDeleteNow the Rangers can walk Pujols, which they do.
This whole game is like an advertisement for moneyball, because St. Louis's small-ball tactics are not working.
And now here's Matt Holliday to end the inning.
ReplyDeleteBut he does not.
Pitch 1: ball
Pitch 2: ball
Pitch 3: called strike
Pitch 4: ball
Pitch 5: foul
Pitch 6: foul
Pitch 7: single to center
Pujols, running all the way, threatened to go home from third, which drew a throw to the plate. Holliday took advantage of this play to race to second.
So the Cardinals have men on 2d and 3d with two out. Berkman coming to the plate.
Naturally, the Rangers walk Berkman to bring up David Freese with the bases loaded.
ReplyDeleteThis is Texas's fourth intentional walk of the game.
OK, another huge at-bat: Ogando v. Freese.
ReplyDeleteBut there is no drama; Freese hits the first pitch on a lazy fly to center to end the inning.
The Cards are now 1-10 with men in scoring position, and if they lose this series, they will know exactly why.
The Cardinals send Carpenter back out for another inning.
ReplyDeleteHe retires Moreland on a liner to center. 1 out.
Carpenter, who has almost nothing left, walks Kinsler to put the lead run on base.
ReplyDeleteCarpenter strikes out Andrus on three pitches that were mostly outside the strike zone. Two outs.
ReplyDeleteNow it's up to Josh Hamilton.
Hamilton, like Freese, swings at the first pitch and flies out to center.
ReplyDeleteCarpenter has pitched 7 innings and allowed only 2 runs. If the Cardinals don't win here, it's not his fault.
So we are still tied at 2 after 7 innings.
Each team has a 50-50 chance of victory.
Ogando still pitching here in the 8th. Molina leads off the inning for the Cardinals.
ReplyDeleteMolina grounds the ball into the hole between second and third. Andrus gets the ball and makes a tremendous effort to throw out the plodding Molina, but his throw hits short of Moreland, who can't make the play. Once again, the Cardinals have their lead-off runner on base.
ReplyDeleteTexas is now bringing in its fourth pitcher of the night. The new pitcher is left-hander Darren Oliver, who is 41 years old and who started in the big leagues back in 1993. He was really good this year: 5-5 with an ERA of 2.29.
ReplyDeleteSt. Louis responds by pinch-hitting for the left-handed Schumaker (who has been great in center field tonight) with Ryan Theriot.
Theriot bunts Molina to second. It's not clear why you would bring in a pinch-hitter to bunt, and the ESPN commentators are mystified.
ReplyDeleteThis brings up Nick Punto, who is 0 for 2 with a walk tonight.
Punto looks terrible and is called out on strikes.
ReplyDeleteThe Cardinals are now 1-11 with men in scoring position.
Here comes Rafael Furcal.
And now the Cardinals are 1-12 with men in scoring position. Furcal grounds out to short and the inning is over.
ReplyDeleteAt this point, I will be absolutely stunned if St. Louis wins this game.
As we head into the bottom of the 8th, Texas has a 62 percent chance of victory.
ReplyDeleteOctavio Dotel, who has one of the best names in baseball -- it's the sort of name Hollywood would make up -- replaces Carpenter for the Cardinals.
ReplyDeleteAnd you knew this was going to happen. Texas has just been waiting for Carpenter to leave. Michael Young, who has been terrible all night, drives a double to right center field.
ReplyDeleteHere comes Adrian Beltre.
Dotel strikes out Beltre. That was big. One out.
ReplyDeleteNow here comes the red-hot Nelson Cruz.
The Cardinals -- wisely in my opinion -- walk Cruz, who has seven post-season home runs.
ReplyDeleteThis will bring up David Murphy.
So Tony LaRussa comes out and pulls Dotel. The Cardinals will bring in the left-handed Marc Rzepczynski to pitch to the left-handed Murphy.
ReplyDeleteAgain, just to reset things: the Rangers have men on 1st and 2d with 1 out in the bottom of the 8th. The next team to score will almost certainly win the game -- and will have a huge edge in the series.
OK, here's David Murphy, who is 1 for 3 in the game.
ReplyDeleteMurphy hits a grounder to Rzepczynski that could have been a double play. But Rzepczenski boots it. The ball rolls harmlessly out to 2d, and the bases are loaded.
And now Mike Napoli is going to put this game away.
Now, of course, the front-runners in Dallas are screaming themselves hoarse.
ReplyDeleteAs a result of all the maneuvering that has taken place, the Cardinals are forced to use a left-handed pitcher against a deadly right-handed hitter. Napoli, who could easily end up as the MVP of the series, drills a pitch to right center for a double. The Rangers lead 4-2, and they now have a 96 percent chance of victory.
ReplyDeleteI've seen enough. This live blog is over.
"Skip Schumaker" could be the star of a boy-novel series.
ReplyDelete