The Rugby World Cup

Every four years since 1987, the rugby-playing nations of the world have come together to play the Rugby World Cup. Here are the results of the Final matches so far:

1987 (played in Australia and New Zealand): New Zealand 29, France 9
1991 (Britain and France): Australia 12, England 6
1995 (South Africa): South Africa 15, New Zealand 12
1999 (Wales): Australia 35, France 12
2003 (Australia): England 20, Australia 17
2007 (France): South Africa 15, England 6

These results are incredibly humiliating to the proud folks of New Zealand, who traditionally dominate world rugby. Since 1996, for example, New Zealand, Australia and South Africa have participated in an annual competition known as the "Tri-Nations." New Zealand has won the Tri-Nations 10 times, while South Africa and Australia have won only 3 times each. In fact, New Zealand's Tri-Nations record is 50-22, compared to 29-42-1 for Australia and 28-43-1 for South Africa. But Australia and South Africa each have two Rugby World Cups, while the Kiwis haven't even reached the final since 1995.

The pressure on the All Blacks (as the New Zealand team is traditionally known) is enormous this year -- not only because of their recent failures, but because this year's World Cup is being held in New Zealand. Anything less than a World Title will be seen as a disaster.

This year's World Cup actually started back on September 9, but I haven't written anything about it because the first few weeks were devoted to a pool stage designed to identify the eight quarter-finalists. This is a somewhat ludicrous waste of time, because there are only nine countries that had a chance of advancing: England, Scotland, Ireland, Wales, France, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, and Argentina. But in an effort to "grow the game" the RWC actually consists of 20 countries, which results in scores like the following:

9/16/11: New Zealand 83, Japan 7
9/23/11: Australia 63, USA 5
9/24/11: England 67, Romania 3
10/2/11: New Zealand 79, Canada 15

In fact, only one of the nine teams listed above lost a match to any of the other 11 teams. There were four pools of five teams each, with the top two teams in each pool advancing to the quarterfinals. Here were the results:

Pool A: New Zealand (4-0), France (2-2). New Zealand beat France 37-17. France actually lost to Tonga 19-14. Under American principles, Tonga would have advanced, because they also went 2-2 and because they beat France head-to-head. But the RWC breaks ties based on your ability to run up the score against other countries, and France ran up bigger margins against Japan and Canada than Tonga did. And to be fair to France, they had basically clinched second place by the time they played Tonga, so they probably weren't going all out. Plus, France always gets special treatment in international competitions.

Pool B: England (4-0), Argentina (3-1). This was the most interesting pool, because it included Scotland, which meant you had three big powers fighting for two slots. England beat Argentina 13-9 and beat Scotland 16-12. Argentina beat Scotland 13-12, so the Scots are out.

Pool C: Ireland (4-0), Australia (3-1). In the biggest upset of the first round, Ireland beat Australia 15-6. This was a huge deal, as it means that Australia now has to play South Africa in the quarter-finals. The USA was in this group. We went 1-3, as we beat Russia 13-6.

Pool D: South Africa (4-0), Wales (3-1). South Africa beat Wales 17-16 in a real heartbreaker for the Welshmen. But this worked out well, because now Wales can avoid all of the Southern Hemisphere teams until the Final.

These results give us the following quarter-finals:

Saturday, October 8:
In Wellington: Ireland v. Wales (The Irish are given 4 to 5 odds to win this match, while Wales are 11 to 8)

In Auckland: England v. France (England is 4 to 7 to win, while France is 15 to 8)

Sunday, October 9:
In Wellington: South Africa v. Australia (Australia is even money to win, while South Africa is 6 to 5).

In Auckland: New Zealand v. Argentina (New Zealand is 1 to 33 to win, while Argentina chance of winning is 22 to 1)