U.S. Open Preview

From the 1920s until 1973, the United States Open was the best golf tournament in the world. It had the best fields, it was played on the best courses, and it usually had the best winners. Look at this list of U.S. Open champions from 1960 to 1973:

1960: Arnold Palmer
1961: Gene Littler
1962: Jack Nicklaus (beat Palmer in a playoff)
1963: Julius Boros (beat Palmer and Jackie Cupit in a playoff)
1964: Ken Venturi
1965: Gary Player (RSA)
1966: Billy Casper (beat Palmer in a playoff)
1967: Jack Nicklaus
1968: Lee Trevino
1969: Orville Moody
1970: Tony Jacklin (ENG)
1971: Lee Trevino (beat Nicklaus in a playoff)
1972: Jack Nicklaus
1973: Johnny Miller

With the exception of Moody -- who won on an odd course that never hosted another U.S. Open -- this list reads like a who's who of golf. And look at those playoffs! At this time, the U.S. Open was a true test of greatness. When I was a kid in the early 1970s, Sam Snead was the only great golfer not to win the U.S. Open -- and this was a very big deal.

But after Miller shot a 63 in the last round of the 1973 Open, the USGA panicked. The next year the USGA took Winged Foot Golf Club and turned it into a house of horrors -- growing huge amounts of rough, narrowing the fairways, tightening the greens, and generally making the course absurdly difficult. They had always done some of this, of course, but I think that starting they took it to a new level.

The USGA, stung by players' complaints in 1974, famously responded that it wasn't trying to punish the best golfers in the world, but to identify them. For years, this has been regarded as a definitive answer. But it's not true. Since 1974, the U.S. Open has become to golf what the French Open is to tennis -- a curious and somewhat quaint event that has very little connection to the rest of the sport. The high rough and the narrow fairways punish long-hitters, and reward cautious players who can keep the ball in play.

As a result, the recent history of the U.S. Open looks total different from the recent history of golf. Since 1974, the only truly great golfers to win the Open were Jack Nicklaus (1980), Tom Watson (1982), Raymond Floyd (1986), Ernie Els (1994 and 1997) and Tiger Woods (2000, 2002, and 2008). Big stars like Fred Couples, Davis Love III, Nick Faldo, Greg Norman, Seve Ballesteros, Phil Mickelson, Vijay Singh have all failed to win the Open. Meanwhile, Andy North (three PGA tour victories) and Lee Janzen (eight PGA tour victories) each won two Opens. Other Opens went to guys like Steve Jones (eight tour victories), Scott Simpson (seven tour victories), and Michael Campbell (one tour victory).

Fortunately, this year the Open is returning to Congressional Country Club near Washington, D.C. Because Congressional is so long -- it will play at over 7,500 yards this year -- it tends to eliminate the short hitters who often over-perform at the Open. The last time the Open came to Congressional, in 1997, the tournament came down to a battle between Els and Colin Montgomerie, who were certainly two of the best players in the world at the time. And the three times Congressional hosted Tiger's AT&T National Tournament (from 2007 to 2009), the winners were K.J. Choi, Anthony Kim and Tiger himself -- strong players all (or at least they were when they won). Plus, the Washington Post reports that the USGA is frustrated that the rough hasn't grown as much as they wanted. So we may get a big-name winner this week.

That would be a blessing, because golf could use some worthy champions. The current holders of the four majors are Graeme McDowell, Louis Oosthuizen, Martin Kaymer, and Charl Schwartzl. With the possible exception of Kaymer, I'm going to predict right now that none of those guys will ever win another major. Or think about it like this. Here are the top ten golfers in the world, according to the current World Golf Ranking:

1. Luke Donald (ENG)
2. Lee Westwood (ENG)
3. Martin Kaymer (GER)
4. Steve Stricker
5. Phil Mickelson
6. Matt Kuchar
7. Graeme McDowell (NIR)
8. Rory McIlroy (NIR)
9. Dustin Johnson
10. Paul Casey (ENG)

Together, these ten guys have won a total of only six major championships; Kaymer has one PGA, McDowell has last year's U.S. Open, and Mickelson has three Masters and one PGA. To put this figure in perspective, Nick Faldo won six majors by himself. So did Lee Trevino. Tom Watson won eight. Tiger has won 14.

Plus, the folks on this list have shown a remarkable ability to play terrible golf in key moments. To give two examples: Dustin Johnson had a three-shot lead going into the final round of the U.S. Open last year, but closed with an 82. Rory McIlroy had a four-shot lead going into the final round of the Masters; he finished with an 80.

Moreover, there are no really good young Americans. Only four Americans are in the top 10, and two of them (Stricker and Mickelson) are over 40. Last year's Fedex Cup winner, Jim Furyk, is also over 40. If a foreigner wins this tournament -- which seems very likely -- it will be the first time in history that non-Americans have won five consecutive majors. Given the lack of talent on the U.S. tour right now, that streak could run for a long time.

In short, the current field does not contain the sort of folks the PGA (or the USGA) wants leading golf into a new post-Tiger era. And make no doubt; that's where we are. Thanks to his bad knee, Tiger won't even play this week. This will be the first Open Tiger has missed since 1994, but the handwriting has been on the wall for some time. He missed the second half of the 2008 season; he missed long stretches of 2010; and the Masters is the only tournament he's finished all year. (He tried to play at the Players Championship, but he only lasted nine holes). Tiger is just about the most secretive athlete I've ever seen, so we may never know what is really going on with him, but it wouldn't surprise me if he never again played a full schedule.

So the bottom line is that we will probably have another obscure winner who will not be heard from again. And yet, and yet -- even with all of its problems, the U.S. Open is one of the great events in sports, and we are so, so happy to have it in the DC area. I just hope that someday, the USGA decides to spend less effort defending par and more effort looking for quality winners.