For once, the NFL was able to play its entire schedule on time, so here is the final poll of the year. New England was a unanimous choice for number 1:
1. New England Patriots (14-2)
2. Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
3. Baltimore Ravens (12-4)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
5. New Orleans Saints (11-5)
6. New York Jets (11-5)
7. Chicago Bears (11-5)
8. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
9. Indianapolis Colts (10-6)
10. Green Bay Packers (10-6)
A final word on polls versus playoffs. Playoffs are great in years where there is real controversy over which team is the best in the league. Here there is no such controversy -- I think everyone can agree that New England is the best team in the NFL. If the NFL operated under a polling system, the Patriots would receive a well-earned Lombardi Trophy. However, because the NFL uses a playoff system, there is a good chance that a lesser team will get the title.
Lots of people assume that a team that wins the playoffs is automatically the best team in the league. But this is absurd. Let us assume that New England is a truly dominant team -- they would beat any other team 90 percent of the time when they play them at home, and they would win 75 percent of their games on a neutral field. In other words, we will assume that they are far and away the best team in the league. Assuming that they have to win two playoff games at home and a Super Bowl on a neutral field, what are their chances to win the Lombardi Trophy? The answer is simple: 0.9 (their chance of winning the first game) * 0.9 (their chance of winning the second game) * 0.75 (their chance of winning the Super Bowl) = 0.6075 (their chance of winning the Lombardi Trophy). In other words, even a dominant Patriot team will lose in the play0ffs almost 40 percent of the time -- not because other teams are better, but because of the random factor that is inevitable in any competition.
None of this should prevent us from enjoying the playoffs -- I'm sure they will be entertaining as ever. But this system is not "fair" to a team like New England that has already proved its worth -- and which now must do so all over again.
Super Bowl XLV: New England-Atlanta
ReplyDeleteWest Bowl: Kansas City-Seattle
South Bowl: Indianapolis-New Orleans
East Bowl: New York-Philadelphia
North Bowl: Pittsburgh-Chicago
6 Bowl: Baltimore-Green Bay
7 Bowl: San Diego-New York
8 Bowl: Jacksonville-Tampa Bay
9 Bowl: Oakland-St. Louis
10 Bowl: Miami-Detroit
11 Bowl: Houston-Minnesota
12 Bowl: Tennessee-San Francisco
13 Bowl: Cleveland-Dallas
14 Bowl: Denver-Washington
15 Bowl: Buffalo-Arizona
No. 1 Bowl: Cincinnati-Carolina
By the way, I intend to play the NFL playoff matchups on various football board games that I have. I'm very excited.
so i got started with the saints-seahawks on mattel talking monday-night football. in the first half, Edd Hargett twice connected with Ray Poage on long touchdown receptions, and new orleans leads on the road, 14-0.
ReplyDeletethe saints won, 16-0. seattle never got anything going in the second half. seahawks flickered when they recovered a fumble at the new orleans 16, but then they turned the ball over on the ensuing down. the saints move on.
ReplyDeleteSuperPro Club! is recognizing Edd Hargett in light of his strong performance.
Colts up, 16-6, at home at the half against the Jets. Crazy game. Those expecting to see Peyton Manning come out firing were surprised to see Tom Matte line up under Baltimore center. Then, on game's third play, Baltimore further shocks with pass from flanker Glenn Doughty to fullback Tony Lorick for 76-yard touchdown. On first play of New York's ensuing possession, Joe Namath and Don Maynard connect for 80-yard score. Both kickers miss extra points.
ReplyDeleteGame settles down with Baltimore grinding out solid drives behind power blocking from center Fred Hoaglin, guards Dan Sullivan and Bill Lange and tackles Tom Drougas and Dennis Nelson. Fumble by George Sauer and half-ending Namath interception throttle Jet scoring bids.
THE JETS WIN! 26-22. Full report to be posted separately.
ReplyDeleteAnd, in today's games, Lou Groza's blocking and kicking lead the Cleveland Browns to a 3-0 victory at Kansas City and Al Matthews's PAT block gives Green Bay a chance to win as time expires in Philadelphia. This, the Packers do--with Bart Starr and Carroll Dale connecting for an 81-yard touchdown pass and Ron Widby booting through the extra point for a 7-6 victory.
ReplyDelete