Let's start by looking at the competition schedule.
| Wednesday, September 29th | ||
| Under 23 Men | Time Trial | 31.8km |
| Elite Women | Time Trial | 22.9km |
| Thursday, September 30th | ||
| Elite Men | Time Trial | 45.8km |
| Friday, October 1st | ||
| Under 23 Men | Road Race | 159km |
| Saturday, October 2nd | ||
| Elite Women | Road Race | 127.2km |
| Sunday, October 3rd | ||
| Elite Men | Road Race | 262.7km |
Under 23 Men
Under 23 competition has always been a mystery to me. Every so often you'll read about these guys, but usually only when they pop up to the Elite level to win a race. This makes it hard for me to give any kind of predictions.
Here is what I can tell you. Slovenia won the Nations Cup followed by Netherlands, France, Columbia, and the United States. The Nations Cup is made up of seven U23 races spread from March to September.
The United States were well represented in the under 23 races this year and three of our guys showed good form here at the end of the season: Tayor Phinney, Andrew Talansky, and Benjamin King. Phinney will be the favorite to win the time trial, but don't rule out Talansky who took second in the final time trial of the final Nations Cup race this year. King just won the US Pro Championship, so he should be in good form for the road.
Elite Women
The United States has dominated the time trials for quite a few years. Well I should say that Kristin Armstrong and Amber Neben have dominated. Sad for the US Armstrong is now retired and Neben is now 36. This means the field is pretty much wide open as no other riders have really dominated time trialing.
The US don't stand a chance in the road race. It should come down to Australia, Italy, Holland, or Germany. These teams have the most dominant riders and should control the race. It seems to me that Germany has been the dominant team on the road the past few years so that's who I would bet on.
Elite Men
The time trial is being talked about as a race between Fabian Cancellara of Switzerland and Tony Martin of Germany. There are other solid time trialists out there, and with weather shifts over a day you never know how things will be affected, but if it's not one of these two to take gold I think everyone will be surprised. Cancellara is going for his fourth straight gold in the time trial.
The US hopes are on the shoulders of David Zabriskie. His abilities in the time trial are not what they once were since he has developed other aspects of his game, but he still has a shot at a medal.
The guy I say to watch close is Gustav Larsson from Sweden. He took silver in the Olympics and has shown great form here at the end of the season.
In the road race the obvious favorite is Phillipe Gilbert. At one point people were talking about this race coming down to a sprint finish, but now everyone has decided it will end more like a spring classic with a select group fighting it out. With the form Gilbert showed in Spain he is definitely the man to watch.
The other big pick is Oscar Freire of Spain. He has won the World Championship three times and the Spanish have built a team around Freire for this course. If he is there at the end he is very very dangerous. Some have called him the smartest rider in the peleton.
Cadel Evans will have strong support from his team to defend the crown on his home turf of Australia, so look for him to be there at the finish.
Italy, as always, has controversy around their team. They left off all sprinters going all in that this will not have a sprint finish. In fact the Italians have no clear leader as they have piled on a host of one day specialists.
If it does come down to a sprint finish then Mark Cavendish is the guy to watch. He is the best in the world and has talked a lot about wanting to win this race. Yesterday he said the course was too tough for him, but you never can write a guy like Cavendish off.
The United States is pinning all their hopes on Tyler Farrar. This means that they too are looking for a sprint finish. What I don't understand about the US team is why they left off George Hincapie. He's the best classics rider we have and one of the best sprint lead out men in the world.
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